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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #51 (permalink)
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Laurus12 View Post
Hello David. I am leaning more to that this should be seen as a Buying Climax, and not a UpThrust, before Reaccumulation. With the 1.3275 area as final support before moving higher would be my guess. The bottom range area from 1.2875 to 1.3040 looks like a relatively longer time Accumulation area with rising bottoms which might also suggest a relatively bigger "cause" and that the up move is therefore not finished yet. At least I think we would have a retest of higher prices. Note that I do not know how to use Point and Figure charts yet, so the latter regarding "cause" (and "effect") would only be from my previous experience and personal judgement.

I took the liberty to reuse one of your charts for illustration and hope you do not mind. The ST, secondary test, in the illustration I see as not going higher because of previous strong resistance back on January 4th with the UpThrust and back.

Laurus

Laurus,

Thanks for commenting and you can reuse my charts anytime.

I was concerned that I may be way off on this one. :-) So the indications you put on your mark-up such as PSY and ST etc., are those then part of a new accumulation in a trading range, or is it part of a distribution? Or is there a distribution and then a reaccumulation? Can you point out areas on the chart that would help me to determine if its distribution or accum? Also, wasn't the daily a weak close with lighter volume. Does this come into play for you or not?

Thanks,

David

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  #52 (permalink)
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Hi David, sorry offtopic but I cannot PM yet

Do you still use market profile in your analysis of the markets? I want to start with price and volume as my guides to the market and was reading through your CL MP thread and thought it looked useful.

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  #53 (permalink)
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nverstop View Post
Hi David, sorry offtopic but I cannot PM yet

Do you still use market profile in your analysis of the markets? I want to start with price and volume as my guides to the market and was reading through your CL MP thread and thought it looked useful.

No problem with the question. Lately I haven't been looking at MP but I think it has value. As I continue to move forward I may look at a MP chart and compare it with other analysis, but I'm not real sure that I want to complicate things. Don't forget that MP is just another way of looking at the data, so its all there on a regular chart as well.

I think starting with price and volume is a good idea and you have that in a bar chart or candlestick chart. Just add volume to the bottom. I hope I answered your question.

David

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Thank you for the answer. I've noticed after looking at just a few MP charts that one can get a decent visual of what the mp distribution will look like by just looking at a bar chart. The highest volume peaks are usually about the same place as if one would box in the ranges on a bar chart.

Thanks again.

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  #55 (permalink)
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David, i thought you might like to read about this article:

Sam Seiden discusses the logic behind the length of time price may spend at a particular level:
Lessons from the Pros - 12/29/2010 Issue - Featured Article: Supply, Demand and Time

P.S. i don't know about you but when Sam speaks about trading it seems so logical and practical. I like this person's ideas.


Last edited by trendisyourfriend; January 17th, 2011 at 04:08 PM.
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  #56 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Laurus,

Thanks for commenting and you can reuse my charts anytime.

I was concerned that I may be way off on this one. :-) So the indications you put on your mark-up such as PSY and ST etc., are those then part of a new accumulation in a trading range, or is it part of a distribution? Or is there a distribution and then a reaccumulation? Can you point out areas on the chart that would help me to determine if its distribution or accum? Also, wasn't the daily a weak close with lighter volume. Does this come into play for you or not?

Thanks,

David

Thank you David
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The thing about distribution vs. reaccumulation is that we usually do not know from the patterns in the beginning, because they are usually the same. The first thing I noticed when price dropped from 1.3453 was the three wave movement on lower volume down to what I labeled as AR, which I perceived as a part of a correction.

Regarding the lower volume on Daily I saw this as a result from a ending/weaker up move to 1.3453 and then the following corrective down moves on lower volume on lower time frames. Both which is coherent with the beginning of reaccumulation/correctional move, but as stated above we usually never know in the beginning. We have to see or wait until higher volume with or against the previous larger move comes in. Regarding the early three wave correctional pattern mentioned and the higher volume showing towards ST, I thought the volume was at the wrong time and without the right patterns and levels to be final for a larger move in either direction.

Thanks,
Laurus

Edit: For convenience adding picture discussed, correcting text.

“If you wish to see the truth, then hold no opinions for or against anything.” - Hsin Hsin Ming
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Wyckoff Trading Method-6e_spy-bc.png  

Last edited by Laurus12; January 18th, 2011 at 09:33 AM.
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  #57 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
David, i thought you might like to read about this article:

Sam Seiden discusses the logic behind the length of time price may spend at a particular level:
Lessons from the Pros - 12/29/2010 Issue - Featured Article: Supply, Demand and Time

P.S. i don't know about you but when Sam speaks about trading it seems so logical and practical. I like this person's ideas.

Trend,

Thanks, Yes, I like his stuff too. Pass along anything else you may come across.

David

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  #58 (permalink)
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Gold

Here is a Daily of Gold. It seems to be on the move to the down side. Almost $50 since resistance at 1393. I believe is will continue to fall, but that is an opinion. Oops, better not have an opinion.

Okay, I'll go out on a limb. If it breaks the 1320 level I say that we could see 1200. Of course not over night. Just my opinion. I'd like to hear other thoughts.

David

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  #59 (permalink)
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Laurus12 View Post
Thank you David
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The thing about distribution vs. reaccumulation is that we usually do not know from the patterns in the beginning, because they are usually the same. The first thing I noticed when price dropped from 1.3453 was the three wave movement on lower volume down to what I labeled as AR, which I perceived as a part of a correction.

Regarding the lower volume on Daily I saw this as a result from a ending/weaker up move to 1.3453 and then the following corrective down moves on lower volume on lower time frames. Both which is coherent with the beginning of reaccumulation/correctional move, but as stated above we usually never know in the beginning. We have to see or wait until higher volume with or against the previous larger move comes in. Regarding the early three wave correctional pattern mentioned and the higher volume showing towards ST, I thought the volume was at the wrong time and without the right patterns and levels to be final for a larger move in either direction.

Thanks,
Laurus

Edit: For convenience adding picture discussed, correcting text.

Laurus,

Do you still see 6E going higher. Seems to be having a tough time around 1.3500, but I can't tell if its absorbing or not.

David

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David_R View Post
Laurus,

Do you still see 6E going higher. Seems to be having a tough time around 1.3500, but I can't tell if its absorbing or not.

David

Hello David.

From what I am able to see the higher volumes are coming in towards lows compared to tops, and are thinking accumulation, but as you mentioned there is strong resistance at 1.3500. For several technical reasons I believe. On the other hand at the moment I see there is not a strong follow up from last low at 1.3395. Early to say, but maybe we will have an UpThrust this time. That would be nice

Laurus

“If you wish to see the truth, then hold no opinions for or against anything.” - Hsin Hsin Ming
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