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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #481 (permalink)
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StockJock View Post
Apparently it does take some practice, because some of the Wyckoff Phases on the chart can be easily mistaken as one of my previous attempts have shown. All charts have their own idiosyncrasies and need to be analyzed carefully. However, I don't seem many charts posted in forums identifying these points. Are they really necessary to identify? Is this over analyzing the chart? Is this type of analysis only for academic training and not used during live trades?

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Reference:
Hank Pruden and Max von Lichtenstein, "Wyckoff Schematics: Visual templates for market timing decisions", MTA Journal, Issue 55, March 2006


The Wyckoff Wave structure is a classical model in how the market moves. As you know, markets do not always move classically, in fact, they rarely do. But we can identify the phases by price, action and volume. You are correct that each market has it's own characteristics. There are times in which price, action and volume will not be in sync for a period of time. But the Wyckoff principles are proven to be a successful tool, so we are always looking for the price, action and volume that coincides to Wyckoff principles.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #482 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
OK, another chart .... SFLY. Would like to get your thoughts.

You'll have to bare with me guys because I'm normally a candlestick kind of trader, which is probably hindering how I see some of the principles of Wyckoff on a chart. Alas, I will post this one using bars.

- There have been three selling climaxes since the end of November as this stock has formed a point of control in the price range of 21.34 to 26.94
- It has made two higher lows since the bottom at 23.23 and 25.71
- The Creek jump was on breakout style volume and has since accumulated on mostly narrow spread bars and appears to be re-testing the Creek for support
- As far as background strength or weakness this stock on a weekly chart appears to still be in a down trend with the top trend line being in the neighborhood of 33.45

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On the daily chart, at the end of December there was a large bar down with high volume. This appears to be some stopping volume as the market did not markdown afterward. The retest in the middle of January was on increased volume but a midrange close, thus some stopping action as well. In order for a market to turn up, we need to see some demand. In early February, we see some type of demand. The sideways action since then are smaller bars and is holding the demand bar gains from the middle of Feb. On a daily basis, the stock should hold the 24.00 area, which was the bottom of the demand area.

On a weekly basis, the market remains in a downtrend and will need more time. 33.00 area is resistance. On the weekly basis as well, 24.00 area should hold. The stock is too early in it's phase to have any markup. It needs more of a testing process.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #483 (permalink)
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StockJock View Post
Here's a little bit of background on some Wyckoff terms.


I also have a glossary of Wyckoff terms on my website if you'd like to check it out.

Gary

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  #484 (permalink)
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ES daily, 15 minute, and Nasdaq / S&P daily spread

Wyckoff Trading Method-20120229-1.pdf

Wyckoff Trading Method-20120229-2.pdf

Wyckoff Trading Method-20120229-3.pdf

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #485 (permalink)
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StockJock View Post
Also I was wondering how ranges are defined on PnF charts.

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P&F is used for count, but many times, you can see the sideways trading ranges just like you can in bar charts, so I sometimes treat them in a similar way.

Gary

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  #486 (permalink)
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Gary Fullett View Post
If you didn't belive me that the NASDAQ doesn't lead the stock market, rally and spread should prove it.

Yes, I see it. I've seen it in the stocks in my watchlist too.

Also, I haven't heard of the "reverse trendline" before. Why would you want to reverse it? Do you use the Wyckoff trend plot points in reverse?

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  #487 (permalink)
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StockJock View Post
Yes, I see it. I've seen it in the stocks in my watchlist too.

Also, I haven't heard of the "reverse trendline" before. Why would you want to reverse it? Do you use the Wyckoff trend plot points in reverse?


A trend line is not such a reliable tool with Wyckoff without the use of the reverse trend line. The mirror image of a trend line is a reverse trend line. This shows (reverse trend line) an overbought / oversold condition ONLY, in the channel. It is used as a cautionary line, but does not give a counter-trend signal.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #488 (permalink)
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Silver chart

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There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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  #489 (permalink)
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A trade I had monitored today with a few others in my chat room. I called it every step of the way, but did not enter it as I have been struggling lately with the "buy the dip" or "buy support" mentality. Spending too much time trying to buy breakouts.

At any rate the picture is pretty clear. TZA had consolidated just under R1 for the majority of the day. Formed a creek at 18.99. Broke the creek only to-retest it, at which point it was all signals go as buyers came rushing in. As I'm typing this TZA is still trading within that new channel and just made a new high of 19.41 ..... actually going off in after hours now 19.62

How long did it take some of you before it became firmly entrenched in your mind how to buy supports?

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  #490 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
How long did it take some of you before it became firmly entrenched in your mind how to buy supports?

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It's a mindset thing. Buying support in an uptrend and selling resistance in a down trend is a very fundamental thing to do, and yet it one of the hardest things for traders to do. The reason why buying support and selling resistance is a very good niche to have, is because markets spend the majority of time in these trading ranges. Traders feel that when a market is going to support, that it will break that support. In fact, in an uptrend, this is where strong hands will defend the position, and vice versa in a downtrend. Traders area always thinking breakouts, and that's where your mind can play havoc with you. Funds and specs can make large money in trading breakouts, but this tends to be rare because they tend to get out too early and miss most of the move. If they do catch the move, they always tend to get out too late, when the trend changes. I like to buy in uptrends at support because this is where large interests tend to be as well, and I want to be on the side of trend as often as possible.

The most important information a trader can have is trend. So don't be afraid to buy support in a uptrend or sell resistance in a downtrend because you greatly increase your odds of being profitable because you're making the proper trade. If you do lose money in buying the uptrend or selling the downtrend, the market can be having a change of behavior, and then you have to readjust your trades.

Gary

There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The opinions expressed here are those of Gary Fullett, and are not to be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell commodity futures or options. This is for educational purposes only.
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