the wide spread down bar on high volume in itself is a sign of weakness , but due to the background we have
where we have clear signs of strenght .. this one bar doesent change the whole picture .. so for it to change the
puicture of strenght .. we at least need to see a follow thru .. wich didnt happen..
also the lack of knowledge within a trading range is big .. as we have SOS and SOW .. .. we should take background into consideration aswell as the action on creek and ice ....
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well fisrt off .. iam a wyckoffian .. and vsa is just a sort of rip off form wyckoff .. where there are used other tersm to describe some action .. also they tempt to go for bar to bar analysis .. where actually not every bar tells a significant story or at least adds to the story...
wyckoff is more about identifieng a process .. where we need background , bars wich add to the story and location .. where this action happened.. to make a conclusion.. and its not easy sometimes.. but other times its just jumps out .. and thats where we should trade .. remember if in doubt stay out ...
also retests of breakouts or climatic or stopping action is also wyckoffian logic...
well . after the stopping action we have a reaction of five bars to the downside .. with small spreads and low volume . so this reaction is towards the SOS .. we can draw the conclusion that there is no interrest to teh down side... also notice that the work of five bars .. is taken out by one bar to the upside..
this is an interresting bar .. its a wide spread donw bar on high volume . wich first rallied back to the upthrust
and closed on its low .. on high volume .. well there is still supply sitting there .. so it can be considered as SOW
and raise a red flag .. so know we need to watch how the story unfolds.. as we get no follow trhu iam still biased to the SOS .. as the wide spread upbar has to be taken out to consider the market weakl .. thats why a marked the low of the bar .. is this is taken out on high volume to the down side .. we have a weak market ...
on the other hand .. if the highs of the UT and the wide spread down bar is taken out .. we have our story of strenght confirmed .. and wait for a retest of creek .. to go long...
Even knowing that every Wednesday candle at 10:30 will be a high volume bar, with a high spread, (except for holidays) do you still think you can assign special meaning to this bar based on its spread and volume? Does it really show weakness, from your perspective?
In one of Wyckoff's writings where he analyzes the NY Times Average 50 stocks from 1930-31, he takes into account volume anomalies; for example, he uses a mental "multiplier" for half trading days on Saturday to increase the "actual" volume from what is reported, and also notes special holiday volume.
There are several off shoots of Wyckoff's method and each of them have their own valid prespective. Some how Wyckoff and his students were sucessful traders before VSA was developed. Could you help me by indicating where in Wyckoff's publications where he discusses bar by bar action. I admit I may have missed it and possibly you direct me the the publication and the page number. A quote from the book would be helpful.
How does your discussion fit into the Nine Buying and the Nine Selling Tests? Can you provide a point and figure chart? Methods developed after Wyckoff may state that these things are not necessary, but isn't that negating what Wyckoff teaches? How can someone omit portions of what he taught and still say they are trading the Wyckoff method?
The point and figure chart also needs to show the horizontal and vertical counts. Wyckoff clearly states how support and resistance lines are to be drawn showing overbought and oversold conditions not only in ranges, but also in bullish and bearish trends.
Wyckoff teaches how to validate a trade with sector and market trends. VSA has its roots in the Wyckoff method, but it not the Wyckoff method. Please provide the quoted sections of resource materials that define your "Wyckoff" chart. As will I.
Quotation from Wyckoff's "Stock Market Science and Technique", Unit 1, Lesson 2, Defining Trends, page 19.
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I showed a TF chart a few post back in the thread. Since then we have broken the ICE, but at another support area and oversold in the trend channel. If there is a rally and the volume is light it could test the ice and fall off again.