Soybeans have had a nice move. Some weakness appearing. There was a larger retracement in Nov. than there had been before. Steeper accent could be climactic. Not sure. The last two days are called effort vs. result where the bar makes a new high closing strong. The expectation would be follow through. Today was a down day on increased volume. May see weakness on beans. We will see.
The S&Ps had a little farther to come down in the US session. They were unable to hold yesterday's low, which meant a testing of the gap as the next logical level down.
I like to use different time frames to look at the market. Here, in this chart, the 120-minute chart of the ES (day session data only) shows the most recent leg or the month-long uptrend nicely along with key support levels. Good support came in at the 1258.50 level. Although some people use floor trader pivots, fibonacci numbers and other factors, I find the obvious levels that all traders can see to work the best for me.
There is no weakness in this chart at this time.
The following user says Thank You to DrGary for this post:
In Wyckoff there are periods of accumulation and distribution. Prices are marked up and marked down. In the attached chart I show a shematic of Distribution as defined by Wyckoff. The shematic is with in a 10 min chart of CL. Of course a schematic is just a representation of reality, but there is a definate similarity.
The following 2 users say Thank You to David_R for this post:
David - good analysis on the S&Ps and also on ISRG. If I were trading ISRG, I would now let it prove to me that it is ready rally. I would look for a good, strong rally, then a weak reaction to enter. But that is just my opinion, and we all know what opinions are worth.
Rassi - Boy, do I agree with you! It took me a long time to recongize how valuable your statement is - and even now, I can forget. Valuable observation!
What do you all think of the market at this juncture? We have been in a range here the last 4-5 days. The weekend is a good time to reflect on where the market has been, what it has been doing, and where it is likely to go.
I like to prepare for the coming week. Preparation is a conerstone to good trading, in my judgement. If we can think through ahead of time what the market might do, we will see it when it happens and have the confidence to pull the trigger at the right time. At least that has been my experience.
Wyckoff was a firm believer that we can read the market by its own actions. Although he was keenly interersted in what large traders or "smart money/professional trades/market operators" were doing, in the end, he also understood that you can read it all in the price bars and volume. So, to that end, here are the charts of the four major markets. What do you see? Let's take this apart and have a game plan for early next week.
The following 3 users say Thank You to DrGary for this post:
I hate it when I have an opinion because it has not served me well. Even if you want to call it a bias, it can cloud your decisions. When I started to look at the indexes I felt unclear and could not really come to a conclusion either way. In some respects that may be best. I then told myself that its just analysis and you need to allow for any outcome. Obviously the market is uptrending so we consider that continues, but I will say based on what I see in the charts there appears to be a fair amount of weakness. Before the holidays there was a fair amount of volume, but the closes were not very strong. I highlited those days in yellow. During a good part of December the market continued higher, but on very light volume. Now we can justify it any way you want and say its because of the holidays and everyone is on vacation, but that would be a fundamental reason and I prefer to look at things technically. My opinion or bias is not as strong in some of the indexes, but in most I come to the conclusion that they are weak and the NQ is more glaring to me than the others, but the TF is fairly glaring as well.
I hope Dr. Gary responds because he can confirm or prove wrong my bias. If anyone can, please do so.
Earlier today i was watching a recording of LBR on some webinar she did. She uses Wyckoff concepts in her trading and one thing she said rang a bell. This is somthin Dr Gary taught as well and that is you will usually see an uptrend end with a buying climax of some kind and a down trend end with a selling climax. Speed or mementum of the move pics up as well as volume. So, even though I said I think there is weakness in the indexes I am not saying they are done moving higher. I don't believe we have seen a climax yet. I don't know, but I don't think so.:-)
Last edited by David_R; January 9th, 2011 at 03:09 AM.
Reason: added last paragraph
The following 3 users say Thank You to David_R for this post: