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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #191 (permalink)
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martied16 View Post
Looks like the bonds have broken down out of a trading range and are currently retesting that breakdown.
Interestingly, the 60 min shows a head and shoulders pattern. Note the low volume after the initial thrust down from the TR and also the head was formed on lower volume. Looks like the shorts piled in at the 118'20 area in the day session but overnight seems to be heading up.
I'm fairly surprised at the low volume move down considering it was a 2 month base, but the breaking of the ice was done on news - headfake? Spring? Will be interesting to watch as it unfolds.

Martied,

This is an example of how this method is frustrating. Its very difficult to read what is going on, at least it is for me. I would probably stay away from this market because its giving such a mix of information. One suggestion is to look at a weekly. Is there strong support to the left just whee the breakdown stopped. It could very well be a spring on the daily.

If the Stock indexes make a turn down wouldn't it make sense that bonds begin to rally? AT least that's how I thought it usually plays out.

David

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  #192 (permalink)
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CL

Well,

We broke and closed below 85 in CL. I'm not convinced that it wants to head lower. The volume seems to be falling off, so we will see. It could be one big ABC correction and end up springing from here, or it could move down to the next support level.

David

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  #193 (permalink)
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Gold


A while back I posted some gold charts. It showed weakness and fell a good $100, but since then it seems to be getting stronger. I felt it would fall hard only because I viewed it as the next bubble, but maybe its not going to drop like a rock after all. It looks like it has formed a spring at support and the weekly chart looks strong.

I'm now beginning to think that we are in absorption (holding gains) waiting to move higher. There are several charts attached. Not a lot of annotation.

David

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  #194 (permalink)
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ISRG Update

Intuitive broke out of its range. Not the highest volume in the world. Today looks like a Test, so still expecting a move higher.

D

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  #195 (permalink)
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Re: Bonds


David_R View Post
Martied,

This is an example of how this method is frustrating. Its very difficult to read what is going on, at least it is for me. I would probably stay away from this market because its giving such a mix of information. One suggestion is to look at a weekly. Is there strong support to the left just whee the breakdown stopped. It could very well be a spring on the daily.

If the Stock indexes make a turn down wouldn't it make sense that bonds begin to rally? AT least that's how I thought it usually plays out.

David

Trading is frustrating. I've tried other methods and they seem to be as frustrating if not more so. Seems like all trading vehicles give a mix of signals on various time frames but they usually correlate in some manner. Rarely do you get everything lined up for that 'perfect' long or short....and if it does it usually goes opposite....
Could be a spring, but could be a real breakdown. With that in mind I enter, and then put a stop where I've decided that it is not working. Limit my losses but have an opportunity to profit if I am correct. With that in mind I shorted 118'27 yesterday after price came very close to my resistance line of 119'07 with a hammer on the 60min. I have a stop at 119'10. Maybe the stop is too close, don't know but that is all the wiggle room I want to give it. Rarely do I see folks post exact trades/stops (unless you pay them lol..) I guess people afraid of being wrong or don't want others to lose money.
If this does turn out to be a spring there will be entry points on the way up. So I just wait.......

I found this PDF to be very helpful on setting entry points: MTA Journal - Anatomy of a Trading Range.

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  #196 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Intuitive broke out of its range. Not the highest volume in the world. Today looks like a Test, so still expecting a move higher.

D

Looks like you understood what was happening in ISRG rather well, a while back it was around 257 area.

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martied16 View Post
Looks like you understood what was happening in ISRG rather well, a while back it was around 257 area.

Yeah, I had just started taking Gary Dayton's Chart reading course and immediately noticed some of things we were learning. I also felt that he pattern of the decline was more of a corrective nature than what you would normally see in a trend. That last statement may not be Wyckoff related, but that doesn't really matter to me. I felt very strongly that the stock was being accumulated.

D

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Gold

Looks like Gold has broken out. This would be considered a classic set-up, but I think it is a setup in many methods. You can call it whatever you want. It can be jumping the creek, pushing through supply, a breakout or Bob, Tom or Mary. I don't really care what its called.

The one thing about Wyckoff that I think it interesting is that it has the potential to give you clues to what may be happening or the why something is happening. No method is always going to be 100% clear. If there is doubt or one does not feel confident in the analysis then pass on the trade. That applies to any method. Sometimes its clear and sometimes its not. Just like in any method. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

What about targets? Well, the next level of supply, resistance, or whatever term you want to call it or when you see signs of weakness such as a buying climax. I tend to be a fan of scaling out. Trade at least 2 lots and take some off at some point and let the other go for as long as you can stomach it.


David

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martied16 View Post
...Rarely do I see folks post exact trades/stops (unless you pay them lol..) I guess people afraid of being wrong or don't want others to lose money.

Dommage as i think it would give more credibitilty to the theory. Talking about accumulation or distribution or whatever without being able to identify an entry point is like talking about music and never really experience what it is listening to music. I know that the Wyckoff approach tries to propose a set of heuristic rules to apprehend the markets but i wonder if the effort necessary to master it is worth the results considering there are easier paths to identify supply and demand and where key players are more likely to enter into the scene.

On a more practical point of view, here's what I take from this approach so far:
'stopping volume' means the trend is ending - get out; an 'Upthrust' means the trap has sprung, get in; 'Jumping the Creek' means a new trend is starting - go long; 'Falling through the Ice' - go short...

Have i forgotten something ?

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trendisyourfriend View Post
Dommage as i think it would give more credibitilty to the theory. Talking about accumulation or distribution or whatever without being able to identify an entry point is like talking about music and never really experience what it is listening to music. I know that the Wyckoff approach tries to propose a set of heuristic rules to apprehend the markets but i wonder if the effort necessary to master it is worth the results considering there are easier paths to identify supply and demand and where key players are more likely to enter into the scene.

On a more practical point of view, here's what I take from this approach so far:
'stopping volume' means the trend is ending - get out; an 'Upthrust' means the trap has sprung, get in; 'Jumping the Creek' means a new trend is starting - go long; 'Falling through the Ice' - go short...

Have i forgotten something ?

Yes, you have forgotten quite a bit. Or, maybe not forgotten, but made to sound like Wyckoff is about these few things and that's it.

I don't think any one indication in any method means something concrete. Saying "stopping volume means trend is ending" is like saying the stochastic is over sold so don't short. Stopping volume may be an indication that the trend is ending. Upthrust occur all the time, but best not to trade them in up trends. They work better in a trading range or a down trend. Terms like Jumping across the Creek and Falling through the Ice have to do with stories that were created to make the concept more visual. Falling through the Ice for example, would be breaking of support. Waiting for that support to act as resistance may be a better place to get short. It would also be beneficial to see the re-tracement on light volume showing a lack of interest in buying.
There are other aspects to wyckoff that provide information such as market structure or wave structure. The idea is to try and read the market by its own actions instead of using indicators.

Is Wyckoff worth the time and effort? I don't know. Are there better/easier ways of identifying supply and demand and the big players? Okay, I'm all ears and eyes. Please share. Post here or start a thread. Are there better or easier ways to trade in general? I don't know. Do you have something that you can share?

The conversation about accumulation and distribution is part of learning and only one aspect of wyckoff. Just because there is a debate or difference of opinion does not invalidate the/a method. The Accum or Dist may not be the best place to trade anyway, so waiting for the break up or down will still provide opportunity if the analysis was incorrect.

David

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