The question was rhetorical, not really looking for a a response. I would agree that if you have a method that is mechanical and works then that may be the best thing going. Many on this forum feel that you can not be totally mechanical over the long term and be profitable. I don't know what is true. If you have such a method I would be happy to see screen shots and details of it. If not, then there is no reason to post such an answer on the Wyckoff thread. Know what I mean?
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Here is some analysis with on ISRG. If there are any stock players out there. There are indications for strength coming in, but nothing is confirmed yet. If we do get a HH and and break of the down trend line then I think there could be a nice move. Just my opinion not advice.
The comment "shortening of the Thrust" is a Wyckoff term. I don't know why. Some may call it a Bullish Wedge. Some call this pattern Accumulation. Interesting if that were the case. If you want to read something on accumulation here is a good blog with a link to the Accumulation post. KEWLTECH: Issue 002 - Accumulation
Only indicator he uses is the MACD and I find he stuff educational.
I posted the ISRG charts because it is not after the fact. It will be interesting to see how things play out. My opinion is that it breaks to the upside, but we wait and see.
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David R told me about this forum and persons interested in Wyckoff trading. I am a devoted student of the Wyckoff Method.
The Wyckoff Method has been around for over 100 years. Wyckoff was a broker and a trader in the early part of the 1900s. He was a keen observer of some of the greatest traders of his day and learned to read their activities in the charts. He wrote the first day trader's manual in 1910 -- Studies in Tape Reading -- under the pen name Rollo Tape. He also published the Magazine of Wall Street, wrote two trading/investing courses, and established an educational company which continues today. The Method is all about reading the market by its own actions.
VSA was coined by Tom Williams, a British gentleman who learned the Wyckoff Method in the 1970s and has computerized many of it's principles.
On Friday, the S&P futures (ES) dipped below the 1251.50 level where it had twice earlier found support (A & B). When support is broken, we expect price to continue lower. The first indication that price would not follow through to the downside was the high volume and mid-range close on the bar labled 1. All this volume and the close well off the low suggested some buying coming into the market. On bar 2, we see an inability on the part of sellers to take price lower. Instead, it closes firmly on its highs and (most importantly) closes back above the 1251.50 support. The market rallies higher. Despite the early morning drop, buyers were in control.
At bar 3, we again see the market drop back down to the 1251.50 level (now for the fourth time) and immediately bounce off that level on a good increase in volume and a firm close -- buying. The market closes firmly for the day.
This pattern of dipping below support, rejecting lower prices and then rallying back above support is known as a spring. It is one of my favorite trades to the long side.
The corrective nature of the reaction from the 1258.50 high to the low at bar 1 and the buying evident around the support level of 1251.50 give us favorable odds for higher prices above last Wednesday's high of 1258.50. Watch the Naz futures, though. It failed to make a new high on Wednesday. If it continues to lag, it will put a drag on the S&Ps.
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The S&Ps rallied strongly in the US morning session as a response to the spring. New highs were put in, as anticipated. This is a typical result of a good spring.
The Naz futures also rallied strongly, but fell off harder in the afternoon, dragging the S&Ps down. Wyckoff wrote about comparative strength and weakness in the stocks he followed. It was one of the key factors he used in reading the market by its own actions. We are fortunate to have highly correlated indices that also show signs of comparative strength and weakness.
There was some volume that came in near the end of the day, indicating some supply in the market. I would anticipate a sideways market tomorrow, at least for the morning session. Shorting around the 1272.50 level or above and buying around the 1264.50 level, or perhaps a little lower to test the gap area. If the supply seen in today's afternoon session dries up, we may see higher prices tomorrow afternoon? Again, the Naz futures will be important to watch. The FOMC minutes release tomorrow can make the day somewhat of a wild card.
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