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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #161 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
yes, that Asian session. Increased activity on the down bar. Which down bar?

You can get this chart here for free. Commodity, stock, forex price quotes, charts, and technical analysis. I go to this site when i want to look at some charts while at work. :-)

D

Thank you very much for the barchart link. I did not know about that one. Regarding the downbar I was thinking of the one which I marked in the chart I posted which corresponds with about 5 pm in the barchart chart just before it started a trip up towards 1.3620. Anyhows as you have probably seen it did not come above the 1.3620

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Crude oil

attached are two crude charts. One is an hourly and the other is a 15 minute focusing on the area I have a question about. I'm looking for feedback. Is this accumulation for a move up or not?

David

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Wyckoff Trading Method-cl60min.jpg   Wyckoff Trading Method-cl15min.jpg  
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  #163 (permalink)
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EURO


Hey guys,
Here is a Daily and a 60 min chart of the 6E. From the daily it looks like another test of the 1.3500 area with a possible test of the JAC point. From the 60 min chart looks like price is being allowed to drift down with a little bit of accumulation. I'm thinking the down move may end tomorrow. We could then get a TR formed with 1.3740 at the top and 1.3500 at the bottom. With this in mind, if price does start to move to 1.3740 we could see SOS's and a JAC formation. So we shall see if the scenario plays out or not.
I didn't expect such a big move down on 2/9-2/10 so that kinda thru me off a bit from my other ideas of what was happening.

This is my scenario of what could happen so I'll be looking for entry points on any signs of a spring or during a SOS. A good reference for entry points can be had from the document: MTA Journal - Anatomy of a Trading Range. Look at Jims annotations of charts at the end of the document.

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-6e-03-11-60-min-2_11_2011.jpg   Wyckoff Trading Method-6e-03-11-daily-9_9_2010-2_12_2011.jpg  
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  #164 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
attached are two crude charts. One is an hourly and the other is a 15 minute focusing on the area I have a question about. I'm looking for feedback. Is this accumulation for a move up or not?

David



looks like accumualtion to me .. check repainted 15 min chart ...

cheerz

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  #165 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
attached are two crude charts. One is an hourly and the other is a 15 minute focusing on the area I have a question about. I'm looking for feedback. Is this accumulation for a move up or not?

David

Hey David,
I'm not really sure if this is accumulation or not. On my daily it looks like 2 hammers on higher volume with a low volume bar between the two hammers. I also noticed that on the 60 min chart the two lowest points since 2/8 were made on low volume, is this a sign of no supply? To me it looks like demand is moving in.

I'll see if I can post a 30/60 min chart on CL tonight.

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  #166 (permalink)
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martied16 View Post
... Here is a Daily and a 60 min chart of the 6E. From the daily it looks like another test of the 1.3500 area with a possible test of the JAC point. From the 60 min chart looks like price is being allowed to drift down with a little bit of accumulation....

Thank you for that one Martied. I think you have a very interesting scenario set up. Kind of confirming what I posted yesterday, though I was too early. If it does not break down it will be interesting to see if we will have a test of the 1.3770 area.

By the way, for studying screenshots I think this one is neat. One just installs and use Ctrl+1 to turn on and off the cross hair.

Laurus

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PrymeTyme View Post
looks like accumualtion to me .. check repainted 15 min chart ...

cheerz


Well,

It looks like CL broke down instead of rallying. Does that mean its not accum? I really thought it was accum, so this makes it hard to determine what the heck is going on.

I actually took a trade. Risk was about 15 tics and looking for a breakout so was holding it. was up about 60 ticks. I had moved stop to above entry so a free trade.

D

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Last edited by David_R; February 11th, 2011 at 03:26 PM. Reason: added pic
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Surgar Update

A while back we looked at sugar and determined it was accumulating and it went on to higher prices. It appears that those higher prices are now rejected and we could see lower prices. There is support around 30, but there was SOT and the demand line has been broken. Still support below though. Chart attached.

David

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  #169 (permalink)
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CL Redistribution


David_R View Post
.....It looks like CL broke down instead of rallying. Does that mean its not accum? I really thought it was accum, so this makes it hard to determine what the heck is going on....

D

D, I thought it was better to see what was going on on a 60 chart, because the 15min was kind of noisy I think.

As a general rule is important for us to look for where the highest volume are located. Is it towards bottoms or towards tops in a trading range? If the highest volume bars appears towards the bottom of the range it is accumulation, and opposite if tops distribution. Also keep in mind that a market does not need high volume to move far if there is no significant resistance. So why does a period suddenly show unusual high volume? Basically because professionals are going against/absorbing the crowd on strong sentiment. Not with a couple of large positions, because this would put the price up or down against them, but with up to ten thousand small positions a day done by machines at given levels by certain institutions. This is why we look at volume as activity and why a good source of fx spot tick volume also works well

If you take a look at the CL on a 60min time frame David we can see it clearer.

Thanks,
Laurus

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This chart of the 6A futures must be the biggest violator of the Wyckoff trading method. Let me explain why…
Bar 1 – Bar closes lower, with increased volume than the previous. This is bearish, the next bar should have been down, but the next bar was up. How did that happen?
Bar 2- Bar closes lower, with increased volume. Next bar is up? Then again why did that happen?
Bar 3 – Bar closes lower than previous with increased volume. Next bar should have been down, but instead it went up.
Bar 4- Bar closes higher than previous with increased volume. Next bar should go up, but instead it was a down bar.
Bar 5- Closes lower than previous bar with increased volume. What should happen next..the next bar should be down, but instead it went up.
This continuously occurred on the other bars that I circled.

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