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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #131 (permalink)
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trendisyourfriend View Post
The CME opened later than usual due to bad wheather conditions in Chicago (only 30 people on the floor). This may explain this so called accumulation period.


Here is a 30 min of ES. If I had to have an opinion of the action I would call it accumulation as well. We have a rally or buying climax and a reaction, but we don't see any follow through to the down side. There is a Spring that takes place and the largest volume comes in with a strong close of the 30 min bar. As the day progresses the 30 min bars have higher lows and the closes for the most part are in the upper end of the bar. This could be absorption (absorbing supply at the level). I would expect ES to move higher and jump the creek. Just an opinion and we will see what happens.

David

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  #132 (permalink)
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The euro seems to be changing its behavior. Trend channel line broken and the move down was on high volume. I would hope that a move back up to the 1.3700-1.3750 on low volume could be sold. I thought we would see climactic buying before a trend change, so maybe there is still more upside to come. I don't know.

David

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  #133 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
The euro seems to be changing its behavior. Trend channel line broken and the move down was on high volume. I would hope that a move back up to the 1.3700-1.3750 on low volume could be sold. I thought we would see climactic buying before a trend change, so maybe there is still more upside to come. I don't know.

David



Hi David


here is my take , the weakness we have seen in the two downbars , was caused by the speaking of trichet the prez of the ecb .. who left the interrest rate unchanged .. full story

EUR/USD Falls as Trichet Unchanged Against Inflation | Forex Crunch

this is just another opportunity for SM to buy cheap or at least not to bid the price up against there buying

lets take a look at the chart

A. High Volume wide spread down bar .. caused by the news ..

B. this bars has even slightly higher volume but is at a smaller spread and closes of the lows..
the next bar is even a up bar .. so someone was buying into the down bar..
and we found support .. ie no follow thru .. there is strenght ,,

likely the same situtaion was seen at the circled area 1.

C.
this bar is interresting as it is on low volume .. but fellt below the low of the high volume down bar ..
just to rallie back to its high .. and closes even above bar B .. ie.. no supply left at that level..

so for me this is a shake out .. rather then a change in behaviour ...


a change in behaviour would be seen if we would succesfully retest the breakdown.. and volume starts to increaes again on increasing or high volume..

remember .. one or two bars on high volume .. wont change alot .. if the move is not supported by the smart money

i havent whitnessed any signs of disrtibution in the near background either .. the market looks still strong ..


cheerz

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Last edited by PrymeTyme; February 4th, 2011 at 03:05 AM.
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  #134 (permalink)
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EUR/USD


PrymeTyme View Post
Hi David


here is my take , the weakness we have seen in the two downbars , was caused by the speaking of trichet the prez of the ecb .. who left the interrest rate unchanged .. full story

EUR/USD Falls as Trichet Unchanged Against Inflation | Forex Crunch

this is just another opportunity for SM to buy cheap or at least not to bid the price up against there buying

lets take a look at the chart

A. High Volume wide spread down bar .. caused by the news ..

B. this bars has even slightly higher volume but is at a smaller spread and closes of the lows..
the next bar is even a up bar .. so someone was buying into the down bar..
and we found support .. ie no follow thru .. there is strenght ,,

likely the same situtaion was seen at the circled area 1.

C.
this bar is interresting as it is on low volume .. but fellt below the low of the high volume down bar ..
just to rallie back to its high .. and closes even above bar B .. ie.. no supply left at that level..

so for me this is a shake out .. rather then a change in behaviour ...


a change in behaviour would be seen if we would succesfully retest the breakdown.. and volume starts to increaes again on increasing or high volume..

remember .. one or two bars on high volume .. wont change alot .. if the move is not supported by the smart money

i havent whitnessed any signs of disrtibution in the near background either .. the market looks still strong ..


cheerz

Hi PrymeTyme/DavidR,
I noticed your discussion on the EURO and thought I'd join in......here is my take on the EURO...of course I may be very wrong but thats the only way to learn....

1. If you notice the orange arrows on the left of the chart in the price section they usually are down or flat during the low volume overnight session while the EURO is in an uptrend. To me, this is normal behaviour.
2. Notice the big volume bar at the yellow arrow labeled 1. When it was happening I didn't know what to make of it, thought maybe the EURO was rolling over. Guess it wasn't.... Looks like it was a shakeout as PrymeTyme pointed out.
3. Now what I found interesting was the area with the blue arrows and rectangles. Note price was moving UP on low volume in the overnight session and during the day with higher volume. To me, this is highly unusual for BOTH of these sessions to be moving UP for 3 overnight and 2 day sessions. Distribution? Or prepping for distribution? Or both?
4. Now note the 2 orange arrows on the right side of the chart. That is typical behaviour when in a downtrend. So that seems to confirm we have a bit of selling/distribution going on. Or profit taking?
5. After the sharp move down at the yellow arrow labeled 2, this confirmed my bias of a move down. Also, I noticed that moves down usually come in 3's, sometimes pairs, and they are many times of the same length. These are the purple arrows and you will note that the second purple arrow stops at the green line which is the top of a Cup and Handle pattern.

To sum it up, I think DavidR is correct on a change of behaviour because of the blue arrows and the blue rectangles. I think the EURO has a good chance to move to the 1.3440 area to retest the breakout from C&H pattern from earlier before moving higher.

Thanks for posting the charts of the EURO, it got me thinking a lot more about it......

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Last edited by martied16; February 4th, 2011 at 07:07 AM. Reason: To make my comment clearer.
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  #135 (permalink)
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Hi Martied




good points u got there , i really want to see how the breakdown and the retest of former resistance plays out ..
before iam convinced that the market is getting weak ..

sorry but i dont have a future chart atm .. so here is a daily chart of EUR/USD Spot FX .. where u can see that
we had an accumulation phase right behind us .. and that the actual down move is on declining volume..

so the change in behaviour in lower tfs hasent affectet the bigger ones .. yet .. so it could be a change in behaviour in progress .. intraday ,, and we are about to retest 1.348ish level .. but for me i would rather look for a long position
on that area ,, if a nice price action setup forms .. rather then trying to ride the wave down.. but thats me


cheers

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  #136 (permalink)
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PrymeTyme View Post
Hi Martied




good points u got there , i really want to see how the breakdown and the retest of former resistance plays out ..
before iam convinced that the market is getting weak ..

sorry but i dont have a future chart atm .. so here is a daily chart of EUR/USD Spot FX .. where u can see that
we had an accumulation phase right behind us .. and that the actual down move is on declining volume..

so the change in behaviour in lower tfs hasent affectet the bigger ones .. yet .. so it could be a change in behaviour in progress .. intraday ,, and we are about to retest 1.348ish level .. but for me i would rather look for a long position
on that area ,, if a nice price action setup forms .. rather then trying to ride the wave down.. but thats me


cheers

I agree on the daily it still looks bullish and as your chart shows, a return to the JAC area is a good support point. Intraday it looked bearish, especially after the big down bar that followed the poor upmove. I'll be keeping an eye on the support line and see how it shakes out for potential longs. Glad to see your posts here.
Do you happen to trade the CL or GBP by chance?

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martied16 View Post
I agree on the daily it still looks bullish and as your chart shows, a return to the JAC area is a good support point. Intraday it looked bearish, especially after the big down bar that followed the poor upmove. I'll be keeping an eye on the support line and see how it shakes out for potential longs. Glad to see your posts here.
Do you happen to trade the CL or GBP by chance?


hi

well my instruments of choice are mainly spot FX .. EU/GU/UJ/EC


but iam interretsed in CL aswell as ES .. but i will focus on the Fx pairs as far as trading goes for now ..

but i will appreciate any discussions about all sorts of instruments thou..

so mate , i gotta go .. have a nice weekend.. will catch u later

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All good comments, guys. I think you both make good points. I think Pryme was correct regarding the daily. If it's still strong it will take precedent over an intra day chart.

I saw the big down bar on the 120 minute and thought supply. I saw a break of the trend channel and thought change in trend. I need to remind myself that one or two signs of strength or weakness does not necessarily make and trend change. Maybe it does for the shorter term, but in the bigger picture the higher time frame trend could still be in tact. I think there may be some signs of weakness, but the background still has strength.

I marked up both your charts showing what i was referring to by behavior change on the intra day and the daily. The change in behavior doesn't mean its a reversal. Hence, per the daily it looks like we may have a spring.

Question; Is this accurate volume on the EUR/USD chart? I though FX did not have volume except for tick volume. Is it usable?

Thanks for posting.

David

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  #139 (permalink)
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Hi David



nice job on the charts, man six eyes see more then two -- good to have a conversation with you guys .. that helps alot ..

regarding the volume on FX .. well yes its tick volume , but i trade waht i see , and the FX tick volume is valid too .. as it shows activity ..and volume measures activity.. somehow..

u can trade VSA or wyckoffian methods .. on FX pretty good too . its a question that pops up every now and then..
but my experience taught me.. that u can work with the tick volume ..

no problem with that


cya

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David_R View Post
All good comments, guys. I think you both make good points. I think Pryme was correct regarding the daily. If it's still strong it will take precedent over an intra day chart.

I saw the big down bar on the 120 minute and thought supply. I saw a break of the trend channel and thought change in trend. I need to remind myself that one or two signs of strength or weakness does not necessarily make and trend change. Maybe it does for the shorter term, but in the bigger picture the higher time frame trend could still be in tact. I think there may be some signs of weakness, but the background still has strength.

I marked up both your charts showing what i was referring to by behavior change on the intra day and the daily. The change in behavior doesn't mean its a reversal. Hence, per the daily it looks like we may have a spring.

Question; Is this accurate volume on the EUR/USD chart? I though FX did not have volume except for tick volume. Is it usable?

Thanks for posting.

David

I use futures volume for my charts and trading so the volume may be a bit different than other charts.
I agree, the daily trend and chart pattern still looks bullish tho the intraday looked tired and ripe for another move down, which it did on friday. The move down wasn't as far as I thought it would go but we shall see monday or tuesday how it shakes out.

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