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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #1231 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
Thanks again guys for you participation. I'm trying to clean up some thing when it comes to my analysis on longer termed charts. What about your thoughts on MPO?

A major long term trend line was broken on what looks to be a legitimate SOS demand candle/bar. It has based nicely ever since. At this point the sell climax looks to have been nothing but a shakeout as it is back trading within the range prior to the drop. The pattern in the background looks to be an inverse head and shoulders with a head to neck measurement of 4.26 to 6.62, which theoretically would yield a breakout back to the longer termed creek.

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This situation is uncertain for me. From the one hand we saw, that somebody bought all of the supply presented lower previous support level 4.70$. Major stride was broken, cause has been built. From the other hand, we see two weeks of a massive volume after which price is not rising further, but is also not falling to much. If this was a sign of strength I would prefer to see more demand (price rising) and without overwhelming volume (at least not so big as we see). I think such conditions (high vol, price is not rising to much) from the Wyckoff original course more probably will be described as CO is throwing all he has bought previously. At present days we see that move higher 6.70$ level is failing. It is failing with lower volume at the top of the rally and inability to penetrate resistance (at least for now). What will be result of this failure we will see soon. If market is ready to move up and it don't see any forces that will stop him, we will see rise of price. So demand will exceed supply. Very important will be to see the quality of this demand, which can be built higher 6.70$ level.

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  #1232 (permalink)
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Swan View Post
Very important will be to see the quality of this demand, which can be built higher 6.70$ level.

Sometimes I find that complicated because you end up "watching" too long and not getting to participate in the move.

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  #1233 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
Sometimes I find that complicated because you end up "watching" too long and not getting to participate in the move.

Yeah, indeed it is not so easy. Several years ago I was studying VSA. And at that time I was thinking in a manner that if SM decided to accumulate, then price SHOULD to go higher in the nearest future. When after some time I saw that price went much lower then previous potential accumulation, I was thinking that problem was in my bad analyses. All I want to say that nobody can predict future of price, even SM. All of us want to make money. SO here we must look at the best probable trades. And best trades can be made from support/resistance levels. So at 6.70 we have resistance level, if price will push through it with good demand, I will buy retest. If there will be no retest of 6.70 I will not be interesting in a long low risk trade, at least till I see next support level.

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  #1234 (permalink)
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I'm starting to find the notion of the "creek" almost too random. Time and time again I have watched a stock conduct it's automatic reversal to set the creek. Price eventually works its way back up and breaks the creek, then makes a slightly higher high only to sell back off in the other direction.

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  #1235 (permalink)
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Is this a demand (SOS) candle UNG just had last week? Or is it a wide-spread distribution candle?

I can't make up my mind. The other variant is the fact that this is a natty gas ETF and weather plays a big factor in it.

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  #1236 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
Is this a demand (SOS) candle UNG just had last week? Or is it a wide-spread distribution candle?

I can't make up my mind. The other variant is the fact that this is a natty gas ETF and weather plays a big factor in it.

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Rock,

I think it says a lot if you don't know, or can't make up your mind. So do nothing and wait and see.

I think the VSA folks would say a high volume up bar is a SOW. To me it looks like strength, but you are at the top of the trading range. It either needs to breakout or retreat.

One if the terms David Weis uses is follow through. Got to see follow through higher.

d. My 2cents

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  #1237 (permalink)
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David_R View Post
Rock,

I think it says a lot if you don't know, or can't make up your mind. So do nothing and wait and see.

I think the VSA folks would say a high volume up bar is a SOW. To me it looks like strength, but you are at the top of the trading range. It either needs to breakout or retreat.

One if the terms David Weis uses is follow through. Got to see follow through higher.

d. My 2cents

+1. I studied VSA. The high volume up bar with a wide spread approaching the trend line is a sign that the next bar will likely break the trend line. that will confirm SOS (pushing through supply/absorption volume) . if next bar is down, then your position should still be neutral.

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  #1238 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
+1. I studied VSA. The high volume up bar with a wide spread approaching the trend line is a sign that the next bar will likely break the trend line. that will confirm SOS (pushing through supply/absorption volume) . if next bar is down, then your position should still be neutral.

Would you guys agree that I drew the channel lines and creek correctly?

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  #1239 (permalink)
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Rock Sexton View Post
Would you guys agree that I drew the channel lines and creek correctly?

i would have drawn the same. it will take:effort to penetrate that line.


are you subscribed to stockcharts? can you share me your wyckoff scans? I dont know much about how to do wyckoff scans. I only scan for high volume bars. maybe yours can help me improve my scans.

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  #1240 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
i would have drawn the same. it will take:effort to penetrate that line.


are you subscribed to stockcharts? can you share me your wyckoff scans? I dont know much about how to do wyckoff scans. I only scan for high volume bars. maybe yours can help me improve my scans.

I use Stockfetcher for my scans. It's a very rudimentary process ..... I've got a couple variations where I still have to manually sift through the stocks to find the right setup.

Bah, looks like /NG futures are up another 3% right now. At this rate, UNG looking to gap at least 80 cents tomorrow.

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