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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #1211 (permalink)
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ukdesi View Post
Daily chart--to me a short at 10.70 looks more interesting.

You are very right, in saying this looks like a start and it can still continue ranging for a while. Nonetheless, that the process just started doesn't stop the fact that you can already read what is going on. I am a swing trader, so I always look to identify what is going on early, and this is all I have done.

Remember that accumulation does not have a set length, it can show the proper indications and temporarily move up to a higher trading range, before re-accumulating.

I look for opportunities, and if they meet my criterias I take a trade, might be very short term or might be long term. I am not fixated on Identifying accumulation, I am only looking for profitable trading conditions.

If you read carefully you will see what I pointed at that will make me take a trade.

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  #1212 (permalink)
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metobi1 View Post
You are very right, in saying this looks like a start and it can still continue ranging for a while. Nonetheless, that the process just started doesn't stop the fact that you can already read what is going on. I am a swing trader, so I always look to identify what is going on early, and this is all I have done.

Remember that accumulation does not have a set length, it can show the proper indications and temporarily move up to a higher trading range, before re-accumulating.

I look for opportunities, and if they meet my criterias I take a trade, might be very short term or might be long term. I am not fixated on Identifying accumulation, I am only looking for profitable trading conditions.

If you read carefully you will see what I pointed at that will make me take a trade.

Well it's not clear to me that this is accumulation---if it is to you and it meets your criteria then go for it. I don't look for a "set length", but rather a demonstration of certain concepts that based on my experience increase the probability of accurately assessing accumulation/distribution. In consideration of shorting this stock, I'm not looking for distribution though--I'm simply seeing a move up that appears corrective within the existing downtrend (on the daily chart). The accumulation you've identified on the intraday could lead to the move up that I would need to short this stock. We may be trading different timeframes--a 60 cent plus move up in this stock is a 6% move and a tradeable move--I only trade off daily charts (or higher) and to me the most probable/profitable trading condition I see right now on the daily is a short with the trend at the right level with a proper signal (and those things would have to be identified in your trading plan). In my experience, intraday wyckoff analysis is less important than overall price context on larger time frames.


Last edited by ukdesi; December 25th, 2013 at 06:05 PM.
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  #1213 (permalink)
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metobi1 View Post
Wow, so many contrasting opinions right now. Well your analysis should be based on the kind of trader you are- Scalper, Long term investor, Swing trader etc. The focus should not be on too many time frames, it makes for confusion. Focus on one or a few, make your analysis, and then plan what you would do if you are right and what else you would do if you are wrong.

From a daily time frame perspective I have made an analysis of how I see things. The market might not be ready to go up, there might be further accumulation, it might want to do a/or several low volume retest(s) of the selling climax, with seeming dullness or inactivity, but the indication I see on the daily time frame is bullish, so if I were to trade this I would like to see a high volume spring at the higher support area, with the target determine by how long it builds a cause for the move.

To be bearish I would like to see a wide down bar with much volume breaking the current lower support with an inability to rally, or a low volume rally. and/or an upthrust at the highs with consistent reluctance to go higher plus lower resistances.

It looks bullish for now. The stopping action is not enough to reverse its major down trend. But looks like preparing for a mini-rally. Going long short term should work if analysis are correct. A counter trending play.

Now, where is the best entry that is near the "danger zone" to minimize the risk? 0.50 below the lowest test?

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  #1214 (permalink)
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Let's wait for a wide demand bar (SOS ) before making long

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  #1215 (permalink)
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metobi1 View Post
Remember that accumulation does not have a set length, it can show the proper indications and temporarily move up to a higher trading range, before re-accumulating.

Exactly.

Sometimes I get caught trying to front run the mark up from accumulation though and suffer needless losses before the eventual move up I was looking for.

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  #1216 (permalink)
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ukdesi View Post
Well it's not clear to me that this is accumulation---if it is to you and it meets your criteria then go for it. I don't look for a "set length", but rather a demonstration of certain concepts that based on my experience increase the probability of accurately assessing accumulation/distribution.

It appeared as though it was being accumulated on average volume ….. then the volume within the last week really got aggressive.

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  #1217 (permalink)
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ukdesi View Post
Um well apparently I can't post images until I have a post count of 5. So here is number 2. Unless there is a different way of attaching a chart--I have a jpeg image saved.

You can post images without 5 posts. Simply attach the image. Do not use an external image hosting site.

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  #1218 (permalink)
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ukdesi View Post
Well it's not clear to me that this is accumulation---if it is to you and it meets your criteria then go for it. I don't look for a "set length", but rather a demonstration of certain concepts that based on my experience increase the probability of accurately assessing accumulation/distribution. In consideration of shorting this stock, I'm not looking for distribution though--I'm simply seeing a move up that appears corrective within the existing downtrend (on the daily chart). The accumulation you've identified on the intraday could lead to the move up that I would need to short this stock. We may be trading different timeframes--a 60 cent plus move up in this stock is a 6% move and a tradeable move--I only trade off daily charts (or higher) and to me the most probable/profitable trading condition I see right now on the daily is a short with the trend at the right level with a proper signal (and those things would have to be identified in your trading plan). In my experience, intraday wyckoff analysis is less important than overall price context on larger time frames.


ukdesi View Post
In my experience, intraday wyckoff analysis is less important than overall price context on larger time frames.

That goes without saying, longer time frames give the overall price context, that is why I said earlier that it all depends on what type of trader you are, I should proberbly have added that, it depends on what time frame you take your trade on. Wychoff talked about short term and long term trend. I think if he had as many choices in time frame as we do, he would prefare to go lower to look at the short term trends etc.

Also, that the move up might just turn out to be corrective, is very possible. I dont really care about that though, if it gives tradable indications, I go for it and I try to ot be set on my analysis, meaning once I see indications to show that liquidation has started again I shift my mind to looking for shorts, so untill I see it happening, I try not to preempt.

I am not trading this, I only trade forex for now, I like to share my views when I see the opportuity for it, so if what I see needs adjustment then I learn from it.

All in all I don't fault you views, I just think you don't understand mine

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  #1219 (permalink)
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Thanks again guys for you participation. I'm trying to clean up some thing when it comes to my analysis on longer termed charts. What about your thoughts on MPO?

A major long term trend line was broken on what looks to be a legitimate SOS demand candle/bar. It has based nicely ever since. At this point the sell climax looks to have been nothing but a shakeout as it is back trading within the range prior to the drop. The pattern in the background looks to be an inverse head and shoulders with a head to neck measurement of 4.26 to 6.62, which theoretically would yield a breakout back to the longer termed creek.

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Last edited by Rock Sexton; December 26th, 2013 at 01:44 AM.
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  #1220 (permalink)
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metobi1 View Post
That goes without saying, longer time frames give the overall price context, that is why I said earlier that it all depends on what type of trader you are, I should proberbly have added that, it depends on what time frame you take your trade on. Wychoff talked about short term and long term trend. I think if he had as many choices in time frame as we do, he would prefare to go lower to look at the short term trends etc.

Also, that the move up might just turn out to be corrective, is very possible. I dont really care about that though, if it gives tradable indications, I go for it and I try to ot be set on my analysis, meaning once I see indications to show that liquidation has started again I shift my mind to looking for shorts, so untill I see it happening, I try not to preempt.

I am not trading this, I only trade forex for now, I like to share my views when I see the opportuity for it, so if what I see needs adjustment then I learn from it.

All in all I don't fault you views, I just think you don't understand mine

Well I think I understand your viewpoint---you look for profitable trading conditions, regardless of time frame. You trade what you see in the present, and I would assume you assess the risk-reward of every trade as well. If that's you, then all of that makes a lot of sense. My interest here is discussing the wyckoff/range analysis of assets. Your intraday analysis of NLY that you posted earlier was a thoughtful analysis. I understand where you're coming from.

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