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Wyckoff Trading Method
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Wyckoff Trading Method

  #1141 (permalink)
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It looks as though it is in accum, but if i look at the weekly chart I would think it would have difficulty in the 37 area. The weekly doesn't look so strong to me. If others see something else in the chart let me know.

D

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bbburaot View Post
Hi everyone,

Here is a chart on xlnx. Looks like there is background strength.

1. Circle - Are there signs of distribution?
2. Look at the first arrow. Is this a shakeout/spring? Is the gap down part of the "spread"?
3. Are the next two arrows show a failed test? TIA

If I look at a weekly I would say the stock looks strong and 44 is a key level.

I think there is a spring with in the last two days as price dropped below the low of the high volume bar and recovered. As far as failed tests go, I am not very good at defining the event, but I would say the spread has narrowed and the volume has dropped off significantly. Could be that the supply is drying up.

This stuff is tough when doing it real time

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  #1143 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
Hi everyone,

Here is a chart on xlnx. Looks like there is background strength.

1. Circle - Are there signs of distribution?
2. Look at the first arrow. Is this a shakeout/spring? Is the gap down part of the "spread"?
3. Are the next two arrows show a failed test? TIA

A wave chart (e.g weis wave) can be very useful in understanding what is going on in a range. Sadly, I used the weis wave I got in 2011, on a newly installed NINJA TRADER (end of day chart) and mysteriously it din't work. So I marked out the chart as best I could so as to attempt to read the story written on the chart as it unfolded.

The most obvious fact from the chart is that at point A massive volume more than any in the past 7 months entered the market, and the close was not at the top of the bar, but somewhere not too far from the middle. This volume occured after a long uptrend, just after the uptrend greatly accelerated. This is a classic type of buying climax.
Compare the uptrend slopes (TA-TE) at the upper left of the image, to see the angle of accelaration, prior to the climax bar with the angles from december 2012.

After the buying climax occured there is a change in behaviour.
1. R1,R2 and R(unlabelled), were not clogged around each other like R3,R4,R5 and R6.
2. At R1,2 and unlabelled the market stops and sharply drops before attempting to continue the trend, this was not the case from R3.
3. Further on the second point, market takes it time to go down between points C and E.
4. At R1,2 and unlabelled, when market successfully broke resistance, it did not greatly increase its volume just before the breach, but at point B and point E we see very visible increase in volume.

Note......R3 of the climax bar was the initial resistance, but R4 tells a better story of 3 break attempts that fails before market heads to the bottom of the range at point D.

Now attempting to go through the highlights from point A to K.
After point A on R3, market attempts to immediatelly rise, but only succeeded in peeping up before falling. the volume at this level is very small when compared to A, as can be seen from the little slope between volume B and C.

At D market stops briefly, before a spring kind of situation sends the market back up.

From E to G market sluggishly attempts to break first R3 and then R4, this is similar to what has happended at the 3 previous resistant points(R1,R2 and R(unlabelled)) only that here, volume doesnt come in at all, and after the breach there is no increase whatsoever in the lenght of the up bars, they rather seem to shrink more.

From point G to I the volume is basically constant and a wave volume might have better info here, but it is important to note that from G to J;
Market moves down faster (with fewer bars) than each retracement
Market has successive lower lows and highs.

At first glance the bar at J, looks very much like a spring/shakeout, but in view of the very different behaviour noticed from after the buying climax, and the gap down which when added to the bar makes the bar close look like it happend near the middle, this tells neither a positive nor negative story, but it shows buying and selling wars. So,I am inclined to see this as a fast move down trapping buyers and catching stops for those that set stops around R3.
The three bars back up with seriously reduced volume look like a successful retest of R3.
The two other probs down that were labelled 'failed tests?' look like probs to continue the temporary down trend.

There is another attempt to go up with again reduced volume, and increase as market starts down. This is one of the areas I would take sell positions if I was to invest in this.

Note: Market movers don't like heavy markets, i.e too much volume as major trends start, so it is possible for a fast move up, to occur just before down trend begins.

For me to become bullish with what I am seeing here, I would need to see bullish evidences.

Yes, I believe what can be termed as distribution has/or is taking place here.

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-xlnx.png  
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  #1144 (permalink)
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Stopping Volume?

Hi everyone,

Here is another stock on my watch list. Let me know your take. Stock symbol is AGCO:

TIA+

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-agco.png  
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  #1145 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
Hi everyone,

Here is a chart on xlnx. Looks like there is background strength.

1. Circle - Are there signs of distribution?
2. Look at the first arrow. Is this a shakeout/spring? Is the gap down part of the "spread"?
3. Are the next two arrows show a failed test? TIA


Whenever you are in doubt if stock is in distribution or re-accumulation help yourself with 9 Wyckoff test. I attached them several pages ago and there are discussions on these tests in other threads as well.

As you will see from 9 Wyckoff tests Point & Figure charts (or just Figure charts as Wyckoff calls them) are integral part of analysis. Figure charts helps you to more easily perceive important accumulation and distribution areas and to determine if tops or bottoms are reached.

When I am analyzing stocks I first look at Figure charts (mostly 3pt and 1pt charts). I don't even open Vertical charts (bar charts with volume) or consider position in certain stock if Figure charts don't look interesting.

siks

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  #1146 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
Hi everyone,

Here is another stock on my watch list. Let me know your take. Stock symbol is AGCO:

TIA+

This is not an easy chart to follow for my level of market analysis.
Nonetheless, I can observe a few things which if I must trade this will give me some direction. But I will advise to observe, put your conclusions in mind and allow the move play out before joining on retracements to well defined egdes.

Using the first attachment (AGCO oversold), this market has been in an uptrend for about 16 months, a year and 4 months.

before crashing down the stock was oversold for 34 days, which is the longest it has happened since the trend began.

From the second attachment, I see that from the last range, most high volume bars were selling bars, and most were wide selling bars, whereas the few buying bars with huge volume only had one with wide spread, all others were either medium size or comparatively very small. This looks more bearish to me than bullish.

With those converging lines I can see that the upward thrust has been shortened.

Using the horizontal lines which point to 58 and 64, I can see that it took about 30 bars to go up 6 points, this looks very sluggish in comparison to the general trend. The last time this happened between the 48 and 54 price level, market ranged for about 5 to 6 months.

This I take to mean that it took too much effort to move the market up.

This all looks bearish, but Ill be careful cos we are still in an uptrend. The crash could signal the start of a short term down trend (how short no idea). If I am to sell based on all these I will sell on upthrust to the area I circled on the third attachment.

But again, might be better to wait for more confirmed move down(where a down trend line can be established) and selling on retracements/well defined edges.

Whew.........., this is the first time I looked at a chart here and after attempting to get a read I got a headache.

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-acgo-oversold-period.png   Wyckoff Trading Method-agco-lots-selling-sluggish-go-up.png   Wyckoff Trading Method-agco-2.png  
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  #1147 (permalink)
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Thanks! Do we see support at 55? Should volume increase and stay within 55, can we say re-accumulation?



metobi1 View Post
This is not an easy chart to follow for my level of market analysis.
Nonetheless, I can observe a few things which if I must trade this will give me some direction. But I will advise to observe, put your conclusions in mind and allow the move play out before joining on retracements to well defined egdes.

Using the first attachment (AGCO oversold), this market has been in an uptrend for about 16 months, a year and 4 months.

before crashing down the stock was oversold for 34 days, which is the longest it has happened since the trend began.

From the second attachment, I see that from the last range, most high volume bars were selling bars, and most were wide selling bars, whereas the few buying bars with huge volume only had one with wide spread, all others were either medium size or comparatively very small. This looks more bearish to me than bullish.

With those converging lines I can see that the upward thrust has been shortened.

Using the horizontal lines which point to 58 and 64, I can see that it took about 30 bars to go up 6 points, this looks very sluggish in comparison to the general trend. The last time this happened between the 48 and 54 price level, market ranged for about 5 to 6 months.

This I take to mean that it took too much effort to move the market up.

This all looks bearish, but Ill be careful cos we are still in an uptrend. The crash could signal the start of a short term down trend (how short no idea). If I am to sell based on all these I will sell on upthrust to the area I circled on the third attachment.

But again, might be better to wait for more confirmed move down(where a down trend line can be established) and selling on retracements/well defined edges.

Whew.........., this is the first time I looked at a chart here and after attempting to get a read I got a headache.


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  #1148 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
Thanks! Do we see support at 55? Should volume increase and stay within 55, can we say re-accumulation?

Yes there is a resistance turned support from the may 18 top, and and one might think of a play at buying the spring. But if you have access to a wave chart, I think you should try see the wave down 2 leading to the spring as shown in the attachment, the volume (effort no result etc), manifestation will help form a better short and long term trading decision.

So far though, I think there is weakness on the left side of the trading range.

Hope this helps.

I don't think I answered your question though, For re-accumulation to occur, I will look for things like:
A failed attempt to go lower (possibly with large volume effort)
A few waves (can be large or small and any number)- in the waves it is good for volume to increase on upwaves and decrease on down waves
Rising supports
A sharp down move that immediately reverses.

Things like above tend to occur during re-accumulation to the best of my knowledge.

It still occurs to me that there is the possibility that this sharp down move, is because this stock 'got too heavy' and this is all a shakeout, if so the move back up may be faster in terms of the number of waves formed. But I'll still look for one or more of the things listed above with an edge to get into the market.

And the upthrust into the area I gave in the previous post may not occur.

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-agco-support-retest.png  

Last edited by metobi1; November 16th, 2013 at 05:53 AM.
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  #1149 (permalink)
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TSLA

Hello again everyone,

I'm still in the process of studying how markets work. Here is another chart I annotated. Would like to know your take on this. Stock symbol is TSLA. I'm struggling to figure out effort vs result & how to spot signs of strength in every reaction. TIA.
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  #1150 (permalink)
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bbburaot View Post
Hello again everyone,

I'm still in the process of studying how markets work. Here is another chart I annotated. Would like to know your take on this. Stock symbol is TSLA. I'm struggling to figure out effort vs result & how to spot signs of strength in every reaction. TIA.
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I salute your decision to learn how markets work. It is a long, sometimes very tiresome but finally very rewarding process. As even though you don't learn all in one day or even in one year, as you understand you will marvel at how the story is always the same(even tough a lot more hidden now) no matter the century, when it comes to market analysis.

Allow me point to how I got to where I am, probably somethings you see may also help you.
For me I first came across VSA, so I read Master the Markets and Trading in the Shadow of the Smart Money (also used their plugins for a while), from them, I heard about David weis and Richard wychoff. I read - The Richard D. Wyckoff Method of Trading and Investing in Stocks: A Course of Instruction in Stock Market Science and Technique and a little of the part two of thee book, and finally the book by David weis - Trades About to Happen: A Modern Adaptation of the Wyckoff Method.

In between reading these books were periods of demo trading and occasional live trading. I watched a lot of VSA you tube videos also, but I think what really helped me fit a lot of the pieces together were the free webinars by Garry Fulliet from his website LTG trading.

My analysis is on the attached charts.

The first is looks at important bars, while the second examines the cumulative volume for up and down waves

Attached Thumbnails
Wyckoff Trading Method-my-analysis.jpg   Wyckoff Trading Method-cummulative-volume-analysis.png  

Last edited by metobi1; November 20th, 2013 at 04:08 PM. Reason: Further Insight
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