Thank you David. This is fun It will be interesting to see how it will behave at the 33.20 - 30 area.
I am wondering how it looked like on lower time frame on the two low swings just before the JAC. Like for example 3min. If you see any patterns there, could you please show us? I circled them in in your picture.
“If you wish to see the truth, then hold no opinions for or against anything.” - Hsin Hsin Ming
The following user says Thank You to Laurus12 for this post:
I'm no expert at this stuff, so take what I say with a grain of salt. Looking at a daily of AMZN there seems to be a lot of strength. On the 4 hour it may look like distribution, and I'm not even sure of that. On the daily it looks like a pullback to support. Yes, fairly deep and probably to run stops. Who knows, but it only breaks the adjusted trend line and does not get back to the original trend channel line.
I've always been very tight with my stops and in the past I always got stopped out before the move. I think this AMZN chart shows you really need to give it room to allow for these kinds of swings. I don't really see much weakness, so I would feel okay about give it more room.
My 2 cents.
The following user says Thank You to David_R for this post:
yes AMZN has strenght in the background , and i must say its a lil tough to analyze the chart at least for me
i have missed some points or actually .. the distribution isnt that crystal clear .. so my analysis is probably
wrong there .. as real signs of weakness havent shown .. lately
i do like the idea , of analysing and reading thru the charts waht the composite man as wyckoff called the smart money .. is about to do.. waht campaign are they running now..
now lets try to read waht the composite man does on QQQQ
lets take a look at the 2 hour chart .. we are in an uptrend .. and we where running into supply
so waht does the composite man do to get rid of the supply , or is the composite man the reason behind the supply
well yes and no , as a campaign -.. where the CM is accumulating a stock .. he also sells into a rallie near the resistance .. for example.. to keep the stock under pressure .. so that he can buy back more on a lower price support..
the CM needs to get rid of the weakholders ,, in order to change the quality of supply and demand..
hence he wants the demand to be good and the supply to be of poor quality..
how can he achieve this ?
by simply shaking out the market .. waht happens in a shakeout .. wich btw is also a selling climax
all weak holders who where long .. are now panicking and selling (supply) .. also he lures out the bears to show there hands . on the down move...
all the CM has to do now is absorbing all those stocks thrown out .. wich we will whitness in a selling climax stopping volume/spring ..waht happens now is that a automatic reaction happens .. while this happens all the lured out bears get scared.. and add to demand..
with this move two things happen in the favour of the CM ..
one weak floating supply gets absorbed
two demand gets stronger and of good quality..
those shakeouts manouvers .. wich we will whitness as accumulation is a campaign .. where the CM plays cat and mouse with the weak holders.. and he wins this game over and over again...
so how does this looks like on a chart i mentioned above ..
well the selling climax .. followed by an AR ,, and a secondary test on declining volume .. wich turns now support
and the climax holds.. signs of strenght..
within the 30 min chart u can see the accumulation in detail..
as we rallie back to the top.. we form a double top .. within this rallie we see at 30 min chart signs of distribution
as the CM is planing another last massive shakeout ...
wich happens.. a massive drop in price on wide spread down bars on high volume.. we even fall thru the ice...
so if iam right with the analysis of accumulation .. and the acuall move beeing a final shakeout or Terminal shakeout
the next bar should close above the ice... to insure strenght...
we will see ,only the market can tell..
but waht i wanted to say here .. is that a campaign run by the composite man.. we will see within areas of accumulation .. also distribution on a smaler scale.. in order to play out there strategy.. they simply manipulate where ever they can to suck out our hard earned cash..
btw.. if it where distribution rather then accumulation.. the selling climax would have been the raeson of
the CM who intervese.. in order to relief a panicky situation .. as he havent sold all his accumulates stocks
and he deffenetly doesent want to be the one left holding thebag.. so then he would distribute within the technical rallie after the SC .. wich would lead to a break of the SC.. rather then a support..
The following user says Thank You to PrymeTyme for this post:
I never would have thought the up bar was a trap. I guess its a very subtle thing because you really need to look and see that volume was picking up to the down side. I don't know how I would classify the up move oh high volume as weakness though. After the fact maybe, but not before. For me anyway.