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Book Discussion: Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar by Al Brooks
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Book Discussion: Reading Price Charts Bar by Bar by Al Brooks

  #71 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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cunparis View Post
I was reading a journal this weekend of a guy's volatility breakout system and back in 2002 he was concerned that his system would stop working if the ES range went below 7 pts. Amazing. I wasn't around at that time so 14 seems low to me. Now it could happen with us, if it goes back to 7 our current strategies counting on 14+ may no longer work.

I like to check the VIX index. Some traders won't take a trade below a reading of 30.

VIX Index Quote - Cboe Volatility Index Index Quote - VIX Quote - VIX Index Price

There's a NT Vix indicator as well, but I didn't find it very useful.

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  #72 (permalink)
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I think Brooks does not tell us new things. Just in a different way. The pattern with TLB and RB is also known under different other names by other "gurus". So other patterns are.
He is not fixed to patterns, but focused to little parts that could end in patterns, also your own patterns.

This morning again: TLB, EMA G2, PB, S/R... more would be overflow.

@cunparis: You are not the only one who has to stop reading the book after 30 minutes...


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  #73 (permalink)
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I attached a chart of what looks like a classic Brooks style setup. I'm still learning his material but I believe this is a pattern he looks for. The pattern on there is a break of a long term trendline, followed by two waves down, then a run back to the highs forming a double top and finally a reversal bar.

Let me know what you think.

Blz

P.S. I didn't take this trade as I'm still learning the material (though I clearly wish I had).

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  #74 (permalink)
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This is gonna sound hella stupid, but one of the points he made in the book that has permanently stuck itself in my head (I think it's in the preface, not sure on that) is that even without a chart, you have a 50% chance of being right.

Think about that for a moment.

You have a 50% chance of being right in any trade without any chart at all.

Now, how many traders do you think there are out there... sitting next to some very expensive computers that are running incredibly complex formulii -- and yet performing at a rate beneath that of a coin-flip?

You have a 50% chance of being right in any trade without any chart at all.

That's a fact, right there.

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  #75 (permalink)
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AynRandFan View Post
This is gonna sound hella stupid, but one of the points he made in the book that has permanently stuck itself in my head (I think it's in the preface, not sure on that) is that even without a chart, you have a 50% chance of being right.

Please define "being right".

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  #76 (permalink)
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AynRandFan View Post
This is gonna sound hella stupid, but one of the points he made in the book that has permanently stuck itself in my head (I think it's in the preface, not sure on that) is that even without a chart, you have a 50% chance of being right.

Think about that for a moment.

You have a 50% chance of being right in any trade without any chart at all.

Now, how many traders do you think there are out there... sitting next to some very expensive computers that are running incredibly complex formulii -- and yet performing at a rate beneath that of a coin-flip?

You have a 50% chance of being right in any trade without any chart at all.

That's a fact, right there.

I get the concept behind this statement. But I'd argue that two traders can take that coin flip trade (one long and the other short) and both lose money. Your money management principles are still at play (position size, price target, stop placement, etc.). Technically speaking, both traders can take the opposite side of the trade and still both win, or both lose.

The entry is only the 1st shot in the battle, not the battle itself.

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  #77 (permalink)
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i am enjoying this thread immensely. just ordered this book so look forward to some discussions on not trading with indicators..... maybe we can balance things out a bit on this forum......

"Let us be thankful for the fools. But for them the rest of us could not succeed." - Mark Twain

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  #78 (permalink)
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blenderking View Post
I get the concept behind this statement. But I'd argue that two traders can take that coin flip trade (one long and the other short) and both lose money. Your money management principles are still at play (position size, price target, stop placement, etc.). Technically speaking, both traders can take the opposite side of the trade and still both win, or both lose.

The entry is only the 1st shot in the battle, not the battle itself.

This is where I was going with my "define being right" question. Cause I totally agree with the 50% chance theory.

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  #79 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
Please define "being right".

Well, the author's apparent meaning behind making this statement concerns direction only, i.e., you have a 50% chance of being "correct" in terms of direction in any trade you make, no chart required. To be fair, here, the author doesn't belabor this point -- it's just something that struck me as profound -- and still does, by the way.

Getting from that 50% to the area of 51% is where our true battles lay.

***** ***** *****

On another note, going through a chart literally bar-by-bar is a worthy exercise -- taking an hour or so to do this at least once in your life can be pretty revealing... in the sense that it can change your "feel" for the markets. I don't have the language skills to really explain what I mean, here -- but believe me when I tell you that a close examination of opens, highs, lows, and closes (and grasping how they tend to work together in trends and contrast one-another in chop) is very much worthy of your time -- it's a frame of reference that sort-of congeals in your head... not trying to thread-jack here, by the way.

Back to the topic of the book.

(A truly great thread-concept, by the way!)

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Friday the 6E was much better tradable than the day before...

Brooks does not take care about FloorPivots or Fibonacci. In ES I do only care about when there are big moves like last winter with 10% intraday. But in 6E I care about pivots and sometimes fibos.

After the news the market went down with strong momentum and turned at S1 after an overshot of 4 ticks, realizing that is was the wrong direction. That happens often after news.
The strong move up ended with a TCLO and an overshot of R1. Followed by a PB, which broke the TL in a "weak" way. The retest of the high formed a HH. So we could expect two legs down after the RB. The pattern is very strong and the same as the Vic 2B reversal pattern

After the trend reversal, the first leg ended with a MTLB and a PB. The overshot of the resistance and the RB started the 2nd leg down, which ended one tick above the PP. A sign for lack of weakness. So a long was not a bad idea. When looking at the setup with MTLB, PB, retest of low with LL, RB, EMA G, we see that it is the same as before, just long.


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