it just sounded literal lol and if i was a novice i would have said wow i dont need s/r in my trading and been a novice for another 5 years or so untill someone told me hey why dont you look left on your chart at where price was no disrespect meant at all and im sorry if any was taken...sharky
Five minutes before the market opens, I take a very eclectic and secretive formula that has been in my family for 75 years. Oh, heck...I'll just go ahead and tell you guys.
Five minutes before the open, flip a coin. Heads, buy at the open...Tails, sell at the open. If your wrong, stop and reverse after a 5 or 6 tick loss. Do that 3 or 4 times, or until you get a 3/1 risk reward trade. You'd be surprised...
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The biggest issue with mechanical systems are, as cunparis has so greatly showed us in his dedicated posts, that the conditions of the market are constantly changing.
Have you ever thought of what the market actually is?
Well, it's a place of expressions actually based on a multiple of individual decisions expressed in a collective dominant mind. Nevertheless, every single transaction is important in the construction of this collective mind. That's why it can't be predictable. If I tell you guys to think of, or imagine a shoe, every one of us is able to do that, but we're all going to be perceiving different shoes. But together we've agread about the shoe.
Now, the same thing happens in the markets. The problem is that we're constantly trying to decipher each others shoes or better said how the collective shoe looks like. And if that's not enough, we're trying to do that by predicting the shape of the shoe into the future.
That's OK, in one's individual life. You're going to sleep, and you're putting on the same shoe each and every morning. And by doing that you get the impression that you're able to predict your future actions constantly. But the markets are a different history because that would be like steping into the mind of your neighbour and predicting his kind of future shoe plans. You have all the information about the use, and the needs but you're never going to be able to predict exactly what and how that's going to unfold.
Now, because market action is taking place in the now, and going towards the future, with the constant or maybe I should say the infinite variable of unfolding into multiple possible ways! Isn't the notion of predicting the future by looking into the past ironic?
Indeed it is! But still, we're experiencing a lot of phenomenon in our lives that gives us the impression of that being possible. One of those phenomenons are the anual seasons. They work in a cykle type of fashion and they keep on repeating themselves. Is that true or is that just something that our mind gives a certain pattern value in order to simply things for us?
In a way it is true but in another it's a lie. Why? Because they do repeat, but the context within the repetition is never identical. The truth that remains is that the cycle repeats itself.
Isn't that what happens in the markets as well? The cycles repeat themselves, (up trend, down trend, sideways, head and shoulders, triangles, etc) but the context within the repetition is never the same. The outcome or the effect is somewhat valid but the contents are never the same.
Why is that so? Because the contents consists of human minds. We all see the shoe but never the same one! KISS KeepItSimpleS.....actually I was going to say Sweetheart .
We will never be able to predict the content of the human mind individually. Collectively yes, but that's always the result of a construction that ones is not able to identify (at least on a regular basis) or is going to be aware of, only when it sees it shaped.
Now, can you see the irony (one of them at least, there are several in my opinion) of indicators. They try to predict the future by projecting the past onto the future, missing out the constant variable of multiple contents.
And by the way, why do we constantly have the wish of dismissing our own mind capacity in order to have a computer doing it's job for us?
In order to put all this together, we have to understand that our expectations are based on the past. And that the past is repetitive, but the content is not.
The solution to all this is to get rid of your past. The past contains the the past and nothing else. You have to adopt a different mind set. Normally we live our lives by our expectations. Stop doing that in the markets. Concentrate on the now, that's where the action is taking place. Get rid of your past, and you'll get rid of your tunnel vision.
One way of doing that, is what my old NLP buddy is suggesting. Get rid of news, financial media, trading buddy's, and stop reading predictive material.
The reason is to filter out, every single thing that's constructing your expectations. You have to understand that by watching an indicator, or the financial news, the only effect of that is that it gives you expectations. Now, the problem is not having them, the problem, is the way you react when they're not met.
Pick up one market and get familiar with it. Start by observing it, without acting, just observe it and see what it's telling you. Get familiar with it, in the now, don't expect it to do whatever you expect it to do. Just watch it, and let it tell you what it is doing.
After you've got familiar with that. Change your mind set once again, and start to think in terms of:
The only thing I need to do, is to throw my money in, in order to see what's going to happen. And when I do that, I'm only going to throw in a small amount of money, only and only to find out if, what I perceive in this moment is going to take the shape of a probable desired action.
That in my opinion is "all you need"!
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