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1) That will be right way to trade late day C up. However, there is 8.30 am US GDP numbers due, so lot can happen.
2) Es daily resistance was 1330- 1333.50. Easier trade was failed A up this morning. One just had to short 1329 with a stop loss at 1334.
ES gives more failed A down and failed A up then any other instrument. First 14 days trading days of this month- the only trade to get paid had been to get long at failed A down. Just amazing.
I do not trade ES much but these statistics have made me a FAN OF ES .
MF: Thanks for the reply, i just happened to notice it while working my way through the system basics. I know ES is a tricky one to hold over night on a short term trade with GDP coming out. One move I see all the time is 3 Pts before the news, and it happened at 7:30 and 9;30 AM today. They run ES up to give some room if the news is bad, and the fund managers can't short their mutual accounts, so need an up move to get some points, notice the reversal after the 10AM news . Do you notice the stall in CL before the news and at the oil reports on Wed?
Thanks for posting.
Only set up I know of ES is failed A down and A up. Place the trade, in case of failed A down and do not touch it till it hits OR high in terms of covering position . It also depends on how wide OR is. At where OR settles is by no accident. It gives lot of clues.
Nothing exciting has happened except TRADING BOX is intact. It may either break to the up side or to the down side. So far last short at 1.13 pm has not stopped me out.
You all have been so kind to make this ACD a thread I went out and bought the book.
I have one question that I am not understanding, maybe someone can help me, who has read the book.
After a good "A" set up either up or down. How do you enter after the set up is valid. Do you just enter on bar close or is there another entry method or is it up to the trader. Just want to make sure I am not missing something and if I am could someone enlighten me.
Have not traded today, but I will try to show how the noise bands can be used as an alternative to the ACD breakout concept.
Noise band: Everything inside the noise bands is just noise, that is testing market imbalances without commitment.
Volatility band: The volatility band is based on the range expectation (as average per last 10 and 20 days) for each session.
Noise bands and volatility bands can be used for both ETH and RTH session. The chart below shows how well behaved CL 03-12 was today. You could have taken countertrades off the noise bands, before trading the afternoon breakout and exit, when the volatility target was reached.
That really depends on where the market is at when the point A is confirmed either up or down. For instance, if the the A up point is 100.50 the market may be at 100.80 when its finally confirmed. In that case you may want to hold out until the market comes back a little bit. A ups and downs give traders a directional bias so if you get long at 100.80 and you believe that it is going to be an up day then you are essentially cheating yourself out of ticks.
It think mfbreakout might be able to shed some light as well.
I got a PM that I am making trading look so easy (lol). He/She thinks my levels SEEMS to GOOD to be TRUE. I do not know how to respond to this but I will try.
Today turned out to be an EXCEPTIONAL DAY. Some days you are just in the ZONE. I do work very HARD to identify Support/resistance. I subscribe to MF daily service, i look at lot of charts - just crude though. I do not want my attention to be diverted. After all this, i do get stopped out 3-4 times a day.
Plus I have been trading crude exclusively for little more than a year.
There is nothing SECRET about my trading beyond what is shown in MF book and Jim Dalton Book.
To top it off, i have about 5,000 hours of screen time just trading CRUDE ( SIM and LIVE).
I hope it answers your question.
Attached is another chart for traders with mathematical inclination courtesy of a friend. I do not understand 1/2 things on her chart as it does not fit my personality but i trust her work along with MF work.
