ACD trading By Mark Fisher

November 27th, 2011, 05:19 AM

Jedi

Anyone know where to download the ACD set up on BM for Ninja? I read its on here but can't find it. Much appreciated.. Jedi

Some work in progress, you can use the initial balance indicator and enter the ACD values, also I have personal ACD version, which allows to enter specific A and C values for each instrument.

November 27th, 2011, 09:09 AM

devdas

I have not read full thread...in past i had tried to use ACD on my favorite instrument NF...but didnt continued.
I experienced simple fact about OR breakouts..may not be true for other markets,

First OR breakout...and most 2nd OR breakout fails in relatively large volatile condition. First OR breakout performs good in steady conditions when volatility is cooling off...or is already low. a simple comparison of relative high and low volatile periods i do with two ADR[5] and ADR[20] ( thanx @Fat Tails for wonderful Volatility Band Indi, i followed those notations here

)

ADR[5] > ADR[20] and rising ADR[5] is simplest high volatile condition.
ADR[5] < ADR[20] and falling ADR[5] is simplest low volatile condition.
ADR[5] < ADR[20] and rising ADR[5] is indication of near future increase in volatility.
ADR[5] > ADR[20] and falling ADR[5] is cooling off from high volatile condition.

For example the pic shows simple equity of two different trades, First OR breakout and Second OR breakout, since mid september. Its was better to fade F1 in high volatile condition than trading that. OR here is calculated with some part as fix value + some part as percentage of ADR[5]. A 10% of ADR[5] as a stop on Fade trade were best choice as per stat.

Failure and success of breakout depends on lot of factors. Some of them per MF book are;

1) daily pivot range. How tight or wide it is. 3 day rolling pivot width.

2) 30 days number line.

3) opening, close price of previous day in relation to daily pivot, pivot range.

4) Macro economic and political factors.

5) Did the market answered the call at the open based off overnight inventory? This is from Jim Dalton of market Profile.

ACD is a price based method with reference points to stay out of BIG TROUBLE.

December 15th, 2011, 01:36 AM

I have been on vacation for 40 days. Just settling in and CL has not disappointed in terms of VOLATILITY and thus trading opportunities.

Following are price action for Tuesday and Wednesday. If we get clear examples of VOLUME spikes as we did on Tuesday and Wednesday just twice a week- Life and trading is all GOOD.

Price staying below 98.56 keeps bears in charge. Close over 99.29 will rekindle bulls.

December 15th, 2011, 07:25 AM

After MF ACD method, box trading is my favorite trading method. CL trades in a box about 60 % of the time ( on 1 minute chart). Just a guess based of my screen time. There is a reason " A level is a level till it gets broken" on of my favorite quotes from one my mentor.

December 15th, 2011, 08:01 AM

I do not use the ACD method, but I do use boxes. The boxes are automatically plotted. My current box plots between 95.00 and 95.80.

60 min chart: Yesterday CL broke out to the downside, which was a rejection of Tuesday's violent upmove. My trendfilter for today therefore favors shorts. I would look for shorts near the value area as shown on the chart.

5 min chart: Based on the current ranges - or boxes, as you call them - there were four short entries near the floor pivot PP (1, 4, 5, 6) and two long entries (2, 3), which I would not have taken, as they were

- not in line with today's trend filter
- against the VWAP

December 15th, 2011, 12:01 PM

Fat Tails

I do not use the ACD method, but I do use boxes. The boxes are automatically plotted. My current box plots between 95.00 and 95.80.

60 min chart: Yesterday CL broke out to the downside, which was a rejection of Tuesday's violent upmove. My trendfilter for today therefore favors shorts. I would look for shorts near the value area as shown on the chart.

5 min chart: Based on the current ranges - or boxes, as you call them - there were four short entries near the floor pivot PP (1, 4, 5, 6) and two long entries (2, 3), which I would not have taken, as they were

- not in line with today's trend filter
- against the VWAP

Great Fat tails. I just have to visually wait and watch to see if the box is formed. Quite a bit of trial and error with this approach. As usual your method seems to be more scientific. Is the code available like your other excellent stuff? Looks like I will have to start using Ninja trader to use your excellent work.

Thanks,

Folling is a chart showing areas , I will be looking at for potential shorts. Along with my long and short trades.

December 15th, 2011, 12:59 PM

mfbreakout

Great Fat tails. I just have to visually wait and watch to see if the box is formed. Quite a bit of trial and error with this approach. As usual your method seems to be more scientific. Is the code available like your other excellent stuff? Looks like I will have to start using Ninja trader to use your excellent work.

Thanks,

Folling is a chart showing areas , I will be looking at for potential shorts. Along with my long and short trades.

I have not published all of the code, want to keep some of it. In case you want to try it send me a private message.

December 16th, 2011, 05:53 AM

Magic Box seems to be 94.40 to 93.50 for 12-16-2011

December 16th, 2011, 06:42 AM

CL futures
days support 92.25-90.09. Resistance 95.28- 95.48

1) failure to extend breakout now alerts for a bear failure. A close over 96.34 signals a breakout failure and a turn around.

2) the odds of this market taking yesterdays low in the next 2 trading sessions around 69%.

These are from subscription service i subscribe to by Mark Fisher.

Along with this context, I let OR and volume spikes let me decide as to how to trade. I have no clue, how i will trade without OR and volume spikes. Thus, i start from zero every morning. I try to shake out bias formed in my head from recent price action but it is tough to do.

December 16th, 2011, 07:10 AM

CL futures
7.05 am short 94.36 stop loss 94.51. Top of trading box. If it stops me out, no harm and if it fails, potential profit are

worth the trade

ACD trading By Mark Fisher

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher