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ACD trading By Mark Fisher
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ACD trading By Mark Fisher

  #41 (permalink)
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supermht View Post
good job, Fat tail, did the same on 6E today

Yes, sometimes it woks like a charm.

The indicators are based on simple statistics. Daily range expectation driven by traders taking positions and generating volume. Failure moves based on average failure moves over the two reference periods. Nothing else.

Should add standard deviation bands / condifdence intervals.

I guess that Mark Fisher also uses some sort of statistics to determine his "good" A, B, C and D levels. But he does not disclose what it is, as he wants to cash in on his knowledge. As long as nobody finds out, this is legitimate.

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  #42 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
Yes, sometimes it woks like a charm.

The indicators are based on simple statistics. Daily range expectation driven by traders taking positions and generating volume. Failure moves based on average failure moves over the two reference periods. Nothing else.

Should add standard deviation bands / condifdence intervals.


thanks, do we have standard deviation bands / condifdence interval on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

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  #43 (permalink)
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supermht View Post
thanks, do we have standard deviation bands / condifdence interval on futures.io (formerly BMT)?

StdDev is a NinjaTrader default indicator, but you cannot apply it to this indicator. You have to calculate them from the failure moves and average daily ranges, which are some where hidden in the indicator. I have played that game several times, see the VWAP and DeviationStop indicators. I will rework those two indicators but cannot do all at the same time.

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  #44 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post

I guess that Mark Fisher also uses some sort of statistics to determine his "good" A, B, C and D levels. But he does not disclose what it is, as he wants to cash in on his knowledge. As long as nobody finds out, this is legitimate.

I have been day trading in prop firm for many years, in past twelve months I only day trade CL with statistics modelling at extreme high win ratio, over 99% in past 12 months, I believe only statistics could do best job in trading volatile futures.

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  #45 (permalink)
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futuretrader8 View Post
I have been day trading in prop firm for many years, in past twelve months I only day trade CL with statistics modelling at extreme high win ratio, over 99% in past 12 months, I believe only statistics could do best job in trading volatile futures.


Futuretrader8,

Good to hear about your success. I also trade full time as a discretionary trader - CL futures for about 9 months now. I am probably one of the biggest fans of Mark Fisher.

Can you expand on " with statistics modelling" ?

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  #46 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
Futuretrader8,

Good to hear about your success. I also trade full time as a discretionary trader - CL futures for about 9 months now. I am probably one of the biggest fans of Mark Fisher.

Can you expand on " with statistics modelling" ?

You could google "Realistic Statistical Modelling of Financial Data" to read that article if you are interested, but I was not allowed to post the link due to the restriction that I have less than 5 posts in this forum.

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  #47 (permalink)
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futuretrader8 View Post
You could google "Realistic Statistical Modelling of Financial Data" to read that article if you are interested, but I was not allowed to post the link due to the restriction that I have less than 5 posts in this forum.

Here is the link to the research paper:

http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/users/rydberg/realistic.pdf

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acd


Fat Tails View Post
Here is the link to the research paper:

http://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/users/rydberg/realistic.pdf

Thanks Fat Tails for the link. The link did not work for me. Here is another link. Any way, I am not sure how , I will use this info. in my day trading.




www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~steele/Resources/FTSResources/StylizedFacts/Rydberg.pdf ∑ PDF file

Not sure why link is not posting correctly but it shows up easily via Google search.


Last edited by mfbreakout; September 11th, 2011 at 08:49 AM. Reason: wrong link
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