I do not know how your market behaves. You are trading against other traders, your strategy needs to adjust to their behaviour. Also it is important to have an idea in the morning of the trading day, whether price action is likely to be rangebound or whether a trending move can be expected.
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Sure. There are things that are specific to the market here, including things like a political bottom of SH index (2000 pts), that I did not mention in the previous posts.
I personally look at the relative position of 3d pivot range and opening range plus market news to have a preliminary judgement on the direction of the day.
Using the noise band method and entry, exit points I mentioned above, I am recording a profit of 236pts and a loss of 124pts in the last 41 trading days. A net profit of 112pts (~33%) in the last 41 trading days. (around 2 months as markets are closed on weekends and public holidays)
Obviously this was a just a manual backtest but taking a discount on that number for poor execution, it is still a method worth studying for me.
I wanted to focus on the technical side of this noise band method.
1. have you encountered any of the cases above and what is your view on these days? e.g. noise band being in the opening range / noise band overlapping with the 3d pivot range...
2. how do you determine when to cash in your gain when it is above / below the noise band
Rubber band trade, or whatever you call it, is something else I would look into after I am done polishing my current setup.
Like mfbreakout I've spent thousands on books (lost count - must be over three hundred or so, most have been given away and only a few have been kept) and market profile was one of my first approaches that I later abandoned again in favour of something I developped myself. While browsing the logical trader book online I came across something worthwhile and that made me want to read the book from cover to cover and I've ordered it. I'll go from there and see where it leads to and will be following this thread.
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Does anyone know if Fisher lists all of his "A" values in ticks on his subscription service or are some of the values in points?
For instance, the ES is listed at 3.5 and the CL at 8. I know CL is 8 ticks, because 8 points for the CL is unrealistic, that would be 80 ticks, but he lists NG as 50, that is obviously 50 ticks. I'm assuming the ES is 3.5 points and not ticks?
The TF is listed at 2. Would this be 2 ticks or 2 points...there is a big difference between 2 ticks and 20.
I had a trial subscription for a bit. I don't think the ACD values have not changed in a long time. I always wondered if NG was really 50 ticks, it seems a lot compared to CL. The book used an example of 15 ticks for NG. TF is 2.00pts. CL was still 8 ticks.
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Fat Tails wrote me an indicator to plot the A & C levels for any instrument. The inputs for the A & C levels are in ticks, and you determine what OR you want to use. I am posting it here for anyone who wants to use it. The picture attached are my settings for the CL in central time zone.
Last edited by silver99; September 8th, 2014 at 12:43 PM.
Reason: Settings pic added
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