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The method discussed here is a breakout method. So the whole thing is about finding out
-> whether the market conditions are favorable for trading a breakout or not
-> if yes, at what level the breakout occurs
If I think about trading breakout from the opening range, two books come to my mind that are worth reading
-> Toby Crabel's "DayTrading with Short Term Price Patterns and Opening Range Breakout" and
-> Mark Fishers " The Logical Trader"
Those are the classics.
The first one is sold at Amazon for $ 1,407.43 - used ones are available from $ 379.69. You might find some copies on the internet as well. The price does not reflect the value, but it is a good read anyhow. The second one sells at $ 42.53. I have bought it a few years ago and my trading has benefitted from reading it.
You will be disappointed, if you think that everything in the book is still up-to-date. I doubt that the breakout levels and the number counting as described in the book are still tradeable today, and prefer other ways of determining breakout levels and the larger trend. But the tools and methodology described in that book are still interesting. I personally use the pivot range as one of two ways of defining value, and I have added the respective lines to my session pivots indicator. Things I learned from that book
-> preferably enter trades near the pivot range in the direction of the trend
-> use the pivot range to gauge the probability of a larger move (probability is increased, if the pivot range is narrow)
-> use the rolling pivot range as an additional filter
-> do not trade without knowing the larger picture
-> find out when somebody has been trapped
I am not applying the ACD method and I am not using the number count, as explained in the book, but the book was written 10 years ago. The markets have changed since then. 10 years ago the floor was still of a preponderant importance, today the volatility during the European session approaches the volatility of the US session. So breakouts can no more be traded without taking into account that prior move.
Yes, I think it is still a recommended read and has valuable information. But it is not for the beginner and you need to filter some of the methods that were valid 10 or 20 years ago, but are no longer applicable.
For more information on Toby Crabel and Mark Fisher, follow the links below. Crabel runs a hedge fund, Fisher one of the larger commodity clearing corporations. Seems that their methods worked out for them.
Favorite Futures: ES ,Currency Futures, Oil , Gold
Posts: 40 since Nov 2011
Thanks: 95 given,
Thanks for notes !
Fat Tails: Thanks for the usual thoughtful response and clever insights. I watched this thread change over time from it's inception, and was wondering about the relevance of the reading material. My knowledge of CL tells me that I would need to be cautious using a breakout strategy on such a volatile contract, but I'm going to check in here and watch this trade for a while. I'm still using the MP levels and pivots as the main signposts.
I enjoy owning trading books of all sorts, and find even the most inapplicable ones sometimes have real gems hidden in the pages, that can be applied in indirect ways to trade plans and psychology. I will get Crabel's book sometime, probably a treat after a big week, type thing ! Been on my list after reading your posts on it.
I use your pivots , daily and rolling, as well as the weekly levels for the big picture. They are my signposts of trading! I agree with the European volume statement, I'm seeing little change from the Euro to US sessions on many days, and certainly many great trading opportunities in the overnight session, before I get up, in Euro, CL, GC $Swiss. Clearly there is more volume parity than I can remember in the 2 sessions. It's become less clear to me as to which session (s) to use to build the levels, as I use to just run the previous US session pivots. Starting to combine a bit on some contracts.
Thank you for the Tony Crabel link on this site, another thread to show the amazing depth of the folks who hang out here!
Best and thanks again !
Last edited by Shamal; January 22nd, 2012 at 07:11 PM.
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30 days number line is very important part of entire ACD trading method. As Mark Fisher said in his book ACD can be used in addition to whatever method one is using.
Since i did not had a successful trading method before ACD, ACD is all i use and will not be able to trade without 30 days number line.
As far as book written 10 years ago and trading environment being different- besides increased VOLATILITY during euro session only change I have seen is that Mr. Fisher firm uses Cash close now vs Oil Pit close to calculate Pivot range etc.. but per my trading experience every thing mentioned in the book still works like a charm.
Last edited by mfbreakout; January 22nd, 2012 at 11:24 PM.
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Shamal, ACD is not only a BO system, but also gives levels to fade as well.. Its a very simple and yet effective way to frame the market and increase your market read. The concept is well worth your time. IMO, MP and ACD are both good concepts in ES but ACD is probably the better of the 2 in CL.
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