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ACD trading By Mark Fisher
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ACD trading By Mark Fisher

  #191 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
But that were not any breakout trades, just countertrend trades as CL was already overextended. I guess that this has nothing to do with the ACD method of Mark Fisher. Also I do not see, how A up was near 97.50.

Below are two charts.

Chart 1 shows the 45 min opening period with the A up at 97.25. I would never have taken that breakout trade.

Chart 2 shows the upper breakout point at 96.60 and the target band around 97.00.

I noted down the number incorrect. OR for me 8.30 to 9.15 am was 96.99 to 95.54. So A up was 97.08. Yes, by the time 45 minutes A up was confirmed, price was way too extended. Depending on where price is in relation to resistance, lot of 45minutes OR traders also fade the move.

I also, tend to use 1 minute OR as a pure breakout set up. 45 minutes keeps me out of trouble, if i miss original move like today. Majority of pure breakout traders use smaller time frame as OR like 5 minutes etc..

I do need to get these noise bands as i can see how it can improve my trading. Thanks , FT.

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  #192 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
1) tried 1) short 96.90 with stop loss 97.21. + 30 ticks.

2) A up confirmed @ 97.50. Price is at a level where quite a sell off started last week. short 97.54. stop loss 97.71. cover 96.80. + 70 ticks. Had to wait 40 minutes to get paid.

Done for the day.

CORRECTION= A up for 45 minutes OR was confirmed @97.08.

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher-2011-12-20_1008_intraday.png  
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mfbreakout View Post
CORRECTION= A up for 45 minutes OR was confirmed @97.08.


Last trade of the day.

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher-2011-12-20_1612_end_of_the_day..png  
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  #194 (permalink)
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mfbreakout View Post
I do need to get these noise bands as i can see how it can improve my trading. Thanks , FT.

The noise bands is a simple concept. You look at the failed move from the open over the last N days.
Each day the failed move is the smaller of (High - Open) and (Open - Low) - or to explain the name of the indicaotr: the move from the open, which did not make it very far and which can be considered as noise.

You then calculate a simple arithmetic average of the size of all those failed moves over the last N days. This would be the expected noise. Any move, which does not exceed the noise level can be considered as insignifcant.

In a last step you add the noise level to and subtract the noise level from the current day's open to calculated the noise bands. Any price move inside the noise bands can be considered as testing of prior price action and has little predictive value for a directional move. The noise bands are session related. Noise can be determined for the ETH or RTH session.

The noise bands can be used as breakout levels. Depending on the price action you can fade the noise bands, trade the breakout or buy/sell a retracements after the breakout.

Attached Thumbnails
ACD trading By Mark Fisher-cl-02-12-15-min-20_12_2011-eth.jpg   ACD trading By Mark Fisher-cl-02-12-15-min-20_12_2011-rth.jpg  

Last edited by Fat Tails; December 20th, 2011 at 05:21 PM.
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  #195 (permalink)
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Fat Tails View Post
The noise bands is a simple concept. You look at the failed move from the open over the last N days.
Each day the failed move is the smaller of (High - Open) and (Open - Low) - or to explain the name of the indicaotr: the move from the open, which did not make it very far and which can be considered as noise.

You then calculate a simple arithmetic average of the size of all those failed moves over the last N days. This would be the expected noise. Any move, which does not exceed the noise level can be considered as insignifcant.

In a last step you add the noise level to and subtract the noise level from the current day's open to calculated the noise bands. Any price move inside the noise bands can be considered as testing of prior price action and has little predictive value for a directional move. The noise bands are session related. Noise can be determined for the ETH or RTH session.

The noise bands can be used as breakout levels. Depending on the price action you can fade the noise bands, trade the breakout or buy/sell a retracements after the breakout.

Fat Tails,

Thanks for explanation. Could you please explain how the noise band (SteelBlue) is different from the lower Magenta band? When does the lower noise band become a lower trigger band?

Thanks a bunch!

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  #196 (permalink)
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Fat Tails,

Thanks for explanation. Could you please explain how the noise band (SteelBlue) is different from the lower Magenta band? When does the lower noise band become a lower trigger band?

Thanks a bunch!

There is no difference except that the noise bands changes the color, once price has moved beyond it. In that case it becomes preliminary trend indication.

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher-es-03-12-60-min-21_12_2011.jpg  
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ACD

mark fisher daily analysis by Global research and Investments provide 2 type of daily analysis. First analysis is generated by computer based of historical patterns. second is by Mr. Hems ( discretionary) based off his understanding of 30 years of trading experience.

thus pre market analysis is labelled 1) computer 2) Helms.

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher-2011-12-21_0841_pre_market.png  
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mfbreakout View Post
mark fisher daily analysis by Global research and Investments provide 2 type of daily analysis. First analysis is generated by computer based of historical patterns. second is by Mr. Hems ( discretionary) based off his understanding of 30 years of trading experience.

thus pre market analysis is labelled 1) computer 2) Helms.

I just notice that for the 3-day-pivot range you used

-> the ETH high and low
-> the last traded price at 5:15 PM EST

whereas I typically use

-> the RTH high and low
-> the settlement price around 2:30 PM EST

My rolling pivot range is therefore at 95.16 / 96.55 instead of 95.17 / 96.76

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ACD trading By Mark Fisher-cl-02-12-60-min-21_12_2011.jpg  
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mfbreakout View Post
mark fisher daily analysis by Global research and Investments provide 2 type of daily analysis. First analysis is generated by computer based of historical patterns. second is by Mr. Hems ( discretionary) based off his understanding of 30 years of trading experience.

thus pre market analysis is labelled 1) computer 2) Helms.


On Wednesday's i use OR of 8.30 am till 9.45 am 99.25- 96.99. Some body was looking at 99.25. Short, 99.16, stop loss 99.31. cover 98.70. Thats all one can do during reports days or be long with enough buffer zone to accomodate noise. Target is 98.50, scene of crime for breakout of Glob-ex high but I did not wanted to wait for another 20 minutes for 20 ticks. 98.50 breaks, 98 becomes target, and so on.

So, based off my OR, we have a failed A down so far.

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Fat Tails View Post
I just notice that for the 3-day-pivot range you used

-> the ETH high and low
-> the last traded price at 5:15 PM EST

whereas I typically use

-> the RTH high and low
-> the settlement price around 2:30 PM EST

My rolling pivot range is therefore at 95.16 / 96.55 instead of 95.17 / 96.76

Yes, FT even though dominant trading is done between 9- 2.30 pm eastern time. Mark fisher started using cash close as reference points 5 months ago, so i switched also.

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