I noted down the number incorrect. OR for me 8.30 to 9.15 am was 96.99 to 95.54. So A up was 97.08. Yes, by the time 45 minutes A up was confirmed, price was way too extended. Depending on where price is in relation to resistance, lot of 45minutes OR traders also fade the move.
I also, tend to use 1 minute OR as a pure breakout set up. 45 minutes keeps me out of trouble, if i miss original move like today. Majority of pure breakout traders use smaller time frame as OR like 5 minutes etc..
I do need to get these noise bands as i can see how it can improve my trading. Thanks , FT.
The following user says Thank You to mfbreakout for this post:
The noise bands is a simple concept. You look at the failed move from the open over the last N days.
Each day the failed move is the smaller of (High - Open) and (Open - Low) - or to explain the name of the indicaotr: the move from the open, which did not make it very far and which can be considered as noise.
You then calculate a simple arithmetic average of the size of all those failed moves over the last N days. This would be the expected noise. Any move, which does not exceed the noise level can be considered as insignifcant.
In a last step you add the noise level to and subtract the noise level from the current day's open to calculated the noise bands. Any price move inside the noise bands can be considered as testing of prior price action and has little predictive value for a directional move. The noise bands are session related. Noise can be determined for the ETH or RTH session.
The noise bands can be used as breakout levels. Depending on the price action you can fade the noise bands, trade the breakout or buy/sell a retracements after the breakout.
Last edited by Fat Tails; December 20th, 2011 at 05:21 PM.
The following 4 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
mark fisher daily analysis by Global research and Investments provide 2 type of daily analysis. First analysis is generated by computer based of historical patterns. second is by Mr. Hems ( discretionary) based off his understanding of 30 years of trading experience.
thus pre market analysis is labelled 1) computer 2) Helms.
On Wednesday's i use OR of 8.30 am till 9.45 am 99.25- 96.99. Some body was looking at 99.25. Short, 99.16, stop loss 99.31. cover 98.70. Thats all one can do during reports days or be long with enough buffer zone to accomodate noise. Target is 98.50, scene of crime for breakout of Glob-ex high but I did not wanted to wait for another 20 minutes for 20 ticks. 98.50 breaks, 98 becomes target, and so on.
So, based off my OR, we have a failed A down so far.