"Truth" as you put it has nothing to do with this discussion. Gravity is sort of a truth, i.e. if you were to jump out of a window I can pretty much tell you with 99.99999% certainty what is likely to happen.
An example for ES today shows that it does not pay to try to trade against the pivot. A trade against the pivot is always a countertrade, and those will only work if the market is clearly overextended.
ES 12-11 today shows no sign of being overextended, so it was possible to buy the pivot and go with the trend.
There were 3 occasions to do this.
Although ES did make a good A Down, price was too close to the pivot range to take a countertrade.
Hi fellow ACD traders. I am on vacation till Nov. 29th, have been since Oct. 28th. Following are quotes from Maverick74, a true master of ACD method. Per Maverick74, he spent 4 years to perfect ACD to suit his needs.
Could not stay away from ACD, so reading through thread to get some new and confirmation of old ACD stuff.
Back to the number line, I noticed that once a number line got near that 9 to 11 level plus or minus that was the outer band if you will. The market would tend to snap back. So I was always really careful around that area. But if we broke through and held and went higher on the number line, then a big move was coming.
As far as pivot ranges go, I found the best value they have is for intra-day trading of index futures. Using the pivots to determine relative strength of which index is weaker or stronger works well. Also when the pivots are at the same levels of the A levels I find they work phenomenally well on fades. Important note though, always fade in the direction of STRENGTH. I'll thrown another bone out there. When pivots are located in the middle of the opening range, they work as great entry levels once you get a confirmed A up or A down to enter. You want to see price bounce off the pivot first before entering.
One more thing, the width of the pivots is helpful as well. Tight pivot ranges usually indicate a volatility increase and very wide pivot ranges usually signal a range bound day. In other words, be careful about taking A ups or A down on wide pivot range days unless the pivot range is located above or below the entire days range, i.e we opened above it and never traded into it and vice versa.
What type of trader are you? Do you like momentum trades or fades? If you like momentum, use very tight opening ranges. If you are a fader, use much wider opening ranges. You need to fit the ACD levels to your trading personality. This is very important. There is no right or wrong way to do this. What you are trying to do is construct levels and parameters that allow you to read the price action most effectively.
What bugs a lot of people when I tell them about ACD and then they say great, let me backtest this on say TradeStation, I tell them that's not going to work. They ask why not? I tell them it's a price action based system and it's highly discretionary. It's not back and white. This makes them angry and they move on to something else. LOL.
But I've got news for everyone, black and white trading does not work. There are no magic set of rules in this game. There is no magic formula. There is no getting around the fact that in order to make money in this business, someway somehow you are going to have to become a good trader.
Even in the book, "The Logical Trader" Mark does trader interviews in the later chapters and he points out how all these guys incorporate ACD differently. Most these guys somehow fit ACD into their own unique personality. Some traders only use certain aspects of it, others are more rigid.
I will say this, based on what I have heard, thousands of guys on the floor over the years have used this approach to trade. Considering these guys trade crude oil, nat gas, heating oil, silver and gold, and have been able to weather the volatility of those products, I think that says a lot about ACD.
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Maverick74 does not day trade. he uses weekly, monthly and quarterly A, C levels to swing trade- holding time can be from 1 day to till target is achieved. He uses intra day A , C levels to enter his weekly/ monthly set ups. Following are his observations.
A levels are magnets. Price gets pulled to them. If we fail at one A level price will usually try to tag the other one. So seeing the underlying strength in the market, we should at the very least tag the A up. Good chance we even go though it. A levels are great to use for profit targets whether intra-day, weekly, monthly or QTRly. They really work.
Case in point. My weekly A down for the ES was 1226.75 as I posted on this thread. Once we failed there the target now becomes the weekly A up which is 1269.75. Sure enough, the high so far today is 1264.75. This is how you use the profit targets.
Following is the best explanation of ACD method I have come across.
Here is what I like about ACD. The idea in trading, like anything in life, is to look for the opportunity that others are not seeing. Head and shoulders, reversals, doji's, 200 day moving averages, moving average crosses, support and resistance, etc, everybody sees that shit. It's plain as day. Hell if you miss any of that stuff, CNBC will point it out to you to remind you. There is no edge in anything that everybody can see right in front of them.
So the idea is to become a good price action trader and ACD allows you to see price action better then any other method I have seen. This is why it's hard to back test ACD as many have tried because they are back testing simple binary action. The idea is to identify price action that is NOT obvious to everyone else. ACD is one of those things you just have to practice like tennis. The more products you watch, the better your feel will become.
Because ACD is a price action based methodology, others can't take your edge away from you. You know the old saying, if everyone does it, then it won't work anymore. That doesn't apply here. If you can learn to master ACD, you can keep your edge into perpetuity.
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I have not read full thread...in past i had tried to use ACD on my favorite instrument NF...but didnt continued.
I experienced simple fact about OR breakouts..may not be true for other markets,
First OR breakout...and most 2nd OR breakout fails in relatively large volatile condition. First OR breakout performs good in steady conditions when volatility is cooling off...or is already low. a simple comparison of relative high and low volatile periods i do with two ADR and ADR ( thanx @Fat Tails for wonderful Volatility Band Indi, i followed those notations here )
ADR > ADR and rising ADR is simplest high volatile condition.
ADR < ADR and falling ADR is simplest low volatile condition.
ADR < ADR and rising ADR is indication of near future increase in volatility.
ADR > ADR and falling ADR is cooling off from high volatile condition.
For example the pic shows simple equity of two different trades, First OR breakout and Second OR breakout, since mid september. Its was better to fade F1 in high volatile condition than trading that. OR here is calculated with some part as fix value + some part as percentage of ADR. A 10% of ADR as a stop on Fade trade were best choice as per stat.
Harvest The Moon Nest The Market
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