ACD trading By Mark Fisher - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


ACD trading By Mark Fisher
Updated: Views / Replies:117,983 / 519
Created: by incometrade Attachments:163

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you dont need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 163  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

ACD trading By Mark Fisher

  #111 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received


forrestang View Post
Just a note.... Pivot is above though, and the pivot is pretty wide, makes you think chop, but we've had some decent volatility since the open so far.

Retracing back to the A level after an A-Up.

PVR above, though wide, does not mean chop... but rather, downward bias ... what I have found is that a PVR in the middle of the range indicates chop... so is good for range trading it, with a tight stop, and using a KC with 1-1.5SD to determine extremes...

see pic from friday..

see pic from today...

chances are market will close lower.. there was selling into each HH... so we shall how today closes... maybe it will race to the PVR at the end of the day.. or it might make a C down to 1192...

btw, I am including part of the GRI report for yesterday, providing guidance for today... which is why I am a bit more downward bias myself... and to put it simply, I bought some puts at around 11AM.. not trading outrights today, working from the office...

Attached Thumbnails
ACD trading By Mark Fisher-today.png   ACD trading By Mark Fisher-friday2.png   ACD trading By Mark Fisher-gri2.png  

Last edited by sysot1t; November 1st, 2011 at 12:56 PM.
Reply With Quote
 
  #112 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received


Fat Tails View Post
IMy question was serious. I just wanted to understand, where my indicators do not follow the original method. I am thinking that they do follow the method exactly, but maybe I am mistaken.

But, as you said that they don't, I am simply curious and would like to understand where I may have introduced involuntary changes. I really would appreciate, if you took the time to explain the differences.

ok, I missunderstood the question and your intentions then ...I will provide my point of view in more details later on... I think that is fair enough... at the end of the day, we are both trying to make money off the same basic concept..

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to sysot1t for this post:
 
  #113 (permalink)
Urban Samurai
Chicago IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, MT4,TOS, SC, Matlab
Broker/Data: CQG, AMP, MB, DTN
Favorite Futures: E/U, G/U
 
forrestang's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 226 given, 684 received



sysot1t View Post
PVR above, though wide, does not mean chop... but rather, downward bias

... what I have found is that a PVR in the middle of the range indicates chop... so is good for range trading it, with a tight stop, and using a KC with 1-1.5SD to determine extremes...

Lemme clarify, the PVR comparative to the prior session or two, the narrowing or widening, I was thinking would give an indication of the type of day?

Since you mentioned it, I plan on posting some more pics where you can see the PVR closer to the OR, but not overlapping, and how price moves through it. It seems to be a very rare occurrence but with explosive directional moves. Here attached are two examples attached.

The bias as you mentioned, I was under the impression that the open in relation to the PVR was to give an idea of the general bias.

I.e. if we open RTH BELOW a pivot range, the bias is generally down. If we Open RTH ABOVE a PVR, general bias is up.

BTW, are you using the HLC/3 HL/2 for your PVR calculation?

Attached Thumbnails
ACD trading By Mark Fisher-prime2011-11-01_115913.jpg   ACD trading By Mark Fisher-prime2011-11-01_120009.jpg  
Reply With Quote
 
  #114 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received


forrestang View Post
Lemme clarify, the PVR comparative to the prior session or two, the narrowing or widening, I was thinking would give an indication of the type of day?

Since you mentioned it, I plan on posting some more pics where you can see the PVR closer to the OR, but not overlapping, and how price moves through it. It seems to be a very rare occurrence but with explosive directional moves. Here attached are two examples attached.

The bias as you mentioned, I was under the impression that the open in relation to the PVR was to give an idea of the general bias.

I.e. if we open RTH BELOW a pivot range, the bias is generally down. If we Open RTH ABOVE a PVR, general bias is up.

BTW, are you using the HLC/3 HL/2 for your PVR calculation?


keep in mind, the whole ACD is layers... what I am yet to incorporate is the number line... but anyhow... PVR is always additional R/S... a very narrow one means trending day... a "wide" one.. chop... but the above and below the OR indicates bias... the whole thing about the C is that it will dictate to you when to change your bias even when all other things align per say...

what I have found, as I said above, is that real chop is found when we have the PVR inside the OR... those days, I reduce size and just go for a point or two... to be honest, I have issues with trading those days... I lose money most of the time if I stay on all day... which is why recognizing those days is critical and then changing the plan to a daily goal is ideal for those days...

if the OR engulfs the upper or lower range of the OR, those are different meanings...

if UpperOR inside PVR, and price bounces downward off that, I short with the stop above the PVR/OR.. whichever is lower... same rules about time apply for me btw... if it goes through, I go long with the stop at the edge of the PVR/OR... just as the rules state...

I use the formulas in the book, with the sessions in the book, I change absolutely nothing... I have added a few things... Delta Divergence and RSI signals.. footprint on the trading chart... along with a KC when ranging.. but that is it... I use the ACD method as it was meant originally..and I use to determine S/R mainly... my entries are confirmed off the FP charts telling me if volume is really coming in or not... that and also looking at other correlated markets to see if they hit a S/R level... you will be surprised how many times one stops because of the other market hit a level...

Reply With Quote
 
  #115 (permalink)
Urban Samurai
Chicago IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, MT4,TOS, SC, Matlab
Broker/Data: CQG, AMP, MB, DTN
Favorite Futures: E/U, G/U
 
forrestang's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 226 given, 684 received

@sysot1t
I'm not to into that number line myself. Maybe eventually, but now it's just looking at the OR in conjunction with the PVR.

@EveryoneElse.....
What are you using to calculate the PVR? I am either doing it wrong somehow, or something. As I am NOT getting what I should be getting. Specifically, what formula are you using to calculate it? Also, are you guys using the entire day, or just the RTH session for calculations?

Reply With Quote
 
  #116 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received


forrestang View Post
@sysot1t
I'm not to into that number line myself. Maybe eventually, but now it's just looking at the OR in conjunction with the PVR.

@EveryoneElse.....
What are you using to calculate the PVR? I am either doing it wrong somehow, or something. As I am NOT getting what I should be getting. Specifically, what formula are you using to calculate it? Also, are you guys using the entire day, or just the RTH session for calculations?

the rules in the book state clearly it is calculated with the session hours as determined by the ACD systems...those are the hours I use for my custom session... in this case, for ES, they coincide with RTH.

Reply With Quote
 
  #117 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received


forrestang View Post
@sysot1t
I'm not to into that number line myself. Maybe eventually, but now it's just looking at the OR in conjunction with the PVR.

@EveryoneElse.....
What are you using to calculate the PVR? I am either doing it wrong somehow, or something. As I am NOT getting what I should be getting. Specifically, what formula are you using to calculate it? Also, are you guys using the entire day, or just the RTH session for calculations?

number line is for additional bias, the notion that history repeats itself... just another layer. the issue for me is calculating it with market delta is not all that simple, and I have to remember to login to the site and get the data.. the gri reports are delivered to my inbox, so that makes it easier to review.

Reply With Quote
 
  #118 (permalink)
Urban Samurai
Chicago IL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja, MT4,TOS, SC, Matlab
Broker/Data: CQG, AMP, MB, DTN
Favorite Futures: E/U, G/U
 
forrestang's Avatar
 
Posts: 1,036 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 226 given, 684 received


forrestang View Post

@EveryoneElse.....
What are you using to calculate the PVR?

Ignore this.

Reply With Quote
 
  #119 (permalink)
Elite Member
Berlin, Europe
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: NinjaTrader, MultiCharts
Broker/Data: Interactive Brokers
Favorite Futures: Keyboard
 
Fat Tails's Avatar
 
Posts: 9,598 since Mar 2010
Thanks: 4,222 given, 25,352 received
Forum Reputation: Legendary


forrestang View Post
@EveryoneElse.....
What are you using to calculate the PVR? I am either doing it wrong somehow, or something. As I am NOT getting what I should be getting. Specifically, what formula are you using to calculate it? Also, are you guys using the entire day, or just the RTH session for calculations?

@forrestang: I am not even igoring this post....

For ES there is an end-of-month trap. As we have November 1, I just would like to mention it. This is the trap:

On normal working days the settlement price for ES is determined as the volume weighted average price of all trades between 3:14:15 PM CT and 3:15:00 PM CT, which is the last 30 seconds of the session. Therefore the close and the settlement price do not differ a lot. Maybe the close is 2 or 3 ticks off, this error is introduced to the pivot with a factor 1/3, so in the end the pivot calculated from the settlement price may be 1 tick of the pivot calculated from the close.

BUT

On the last day of the month the settlement price for index futures is calculated from the closing price of the cash market at 4:00 PM EST via a fair value procedure. So you can get a large difference, resulting from the differential between futures and fair value on the one hand and from a directional move of the market between 3:00 PM CT and 3:15 PM CT on the other hand.

And indeed yesterday was the last business day of the month. ES closed at 1246.50 while the settlement price was at 1249.25. I believe that the pivot should use the settlement price. If you calculate your pivot from intraday data (CalculateOnBarClose), the pivot for today is 1 point off. The same applies to the pivot range.

ES 12-11 Pivot PP calculated from settlement price: 1254.00
ES 12-11 Pivot PP calculated from close: 1253.00

I believe that 1254.00 is the correct value, which you can only obtain, if you calculate it from daily data (DailyBars), for example by using NinjaTrader Kinetick data.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post:
 
  #120 (permalink)
Membership Permanently Revoked
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
 
Posts: 1,176 since Nov 2009
Thanks: 221 given, 843 received



Fat Tails View Post
@forrestang: I am not even igoring this post....

For ES there is an end-of-month trap. As we have November 1, I just would like to mention it. This is the trap:

On normal working days the settlement price for ES is determined as the volume weighted average price of all trades between 3:14:15 PM CT and 3:15:00 PM CT, which is the last 30 seconds of the session. Therefore the close and the settlement price do not differ a lot. Maybe the close is 2 or 3 ticks off, this error is introduced to the pivot with a factor 1/3, so in the end the pivot calculated from the settlement price may be 1 tick of the pivot calculated from the close.

BUT

On the last day of the month the settlement price for index futures is calculated from the closing price of the cash market at 4:00 PM EST via a fair value procedure. So you can get a large difference, resulting from the differential between futures and fair value on the one hand and from a directional move of the market between 3:00 PM CT and 3:15 PM CT on the other hand.

And indeed yesterday was the last business day of the month. ES closed at 1246.50 while the settlement price was at 1249.25. I believe that the pivot should use the settlement price. If you calculate your pivot from intraday data (CalculateOnBarClose), the pivot for today is 1 point off. The same applies to the pivot range.

ES 12-11 Pivot PP calculated from settlement price: 1254.00
ES 12-11 Pivot PP calculated from close: 1253.00

I believe that 1254.00 is the correct value, which you can only obtain, if you calculate it from daily data (DailyBars), for example by using NinjaTrader Kinetick data.

and this is what i mean by you not following the method in its true nature... what page in the book says to use the settlement price for calculating the PVR/OR for the first of the month? I might have missed it... and if I did, I would certainly like to know as I would have to re-evaluate everything without delay..

as an FYI... here are the values from the source(MBF subscribers site) that were to be used for today.. also, please keep in mind settlements for ES/NQ are derived from the full contracts, not using the emini...

Attached Thumbnails
ACD trading By Mark Fisher-11-1-2011-3-03-39-pm.png  
Reply With Quote

Reply



futures io > > > ACD trading By Mark Fisher

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

July Journal Challenge w/$1100 in prizes from TopstepTrader

July
 

An Afternoon with FIO member Softsoap

Elite only

Battlestations: Show us your trading desks and win $750 in prizes

August
 

Extended Ask Me Anything w/Brett Steenbarger

Elite only

Prototyping Python Strategies (part 3) w/Ran Aroussi

Elite only

Brannigan Barrett w/Axia Futures

Elite only

Introduction to Phillip Capital futures brokerage services

Aug TBD

How Monte Carlo Analysis Can Help Your Trading w/Kevin Davey

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Fisher for NT7 zt379 NinjaTrader Programming 39 September 15th, 2015 06:40 AM
Fisher Transform - a sample size problem? drolles NinjaTrader Programming 16 March 15th, 2011 07:06 AM
Arrows to mark trade entries and exits? plethora ThinkOrSwim Programming 1 March 3rd, 2011 09:47 PM
how to mark unread post read? RiskControlMaster Beginners and Introductions 11 January 1st, 2011 08:24 AM
Fed Needs Fiscal Help to Boost Economy: Fisher Quick Summary News and Current Events 0 October 18th, 2010 09:50 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:52 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-07-20 in 0.17 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.145.101.33