I'm going to take some time off from continuing the discussion. I'm not even sure if anyone is with me or if anyone is interested.
First, I think a good progression of a trader is this:
- consistently profitable without any indicators, trading
S&R
- add indicators one at a time, after verifying that they increase performance. this implies the indicator has some sort of edge.
The question I've been struggling with is this: Can a trader learn to trade with cycles without having already been consistently profitable without indicators?
I think the answer is yes because this is how I did it, although I'm not sure about the consistency part. I had 2 months "on" and then a month and a half "off" and that's when I wanted to learn about trading naked in order to reduce my dependence on the indicators. And since then I've been back "on".
So for people wondering if cycles are for them,
you have a decision to make.
Now, in both cases, there is a lot of hard work involved. No indicators are going to say "enter here" and "exit here" and give consistent profitability with small
drawdowns. Some will disagree with this but nothing has been shown to contradict my claim. I'm not saying automated systems can't do it, I'm just saying they're going to be incredibly complex and involve several factors. They're the type of systems that the big institutions pay millions of dollars to develop.
So back to the hard work part.
It takes hours and hours of studying charts and coming up with a trading plan, testing the trading plan, updating it, optimizing entries & exits, etc.
Are you willing to do this work??
My experience leads me to believe that
the majority of people in these forums are not willing to do the work. This is my second thread that I've created to show how I trade ES. First was the volume thread. In both threads initial interest was high, but then interest dropped off. In the volume thread I suggested (required?) reading a book. I didn't think anyone read it but I did get a reply yesterday from someone who had. So maybe 1 in 100 or 200 people who read the thread took the time to read the book. And people wonder why 95% of traders fail.
Also in both threads I ask people to post charts, identify setups, etc. Again, in the beginning there are some participants and then once we get to the point where there is no magic entry & exit signals, no more charts posted.
Very few people (zero?) take the time to go over a month of charts, identify setups, post the charts and ask for feedback.
So I thought maybe my threads are too complicated, or too extreme, too boring, whatever. Maybe I'm too demanding.
For a while I've been participating regularly in one other thread: Jeff's All You Need thread. In that thread, I observed the very same behavior. Although he had continuous stream of questions, most were from newcomers to the thread. They'd come in, ask for the template, ask about the indicators, maybe ask about an entry, and then .. disappear!
Very few people took the time to go over their charts, find setups, annotate them, post them in the thread for feedback. And of those I don't think any of them did it consistently.
So either a few people "got it" and just kept quiet, or no one got it at all. Well I "got it" so it's probably a combination of them.
All this has caused me to ponder the issue. Posting takes an incredible amount of time. If people aren't willing to take the ideas and work them out on their own, they're not going to be successful. And in that case does it make sense to continue the thread?
As Ringer would say, there needs to be a value for value relationship. The poster can get value from the reflection needed to post and also from the ideas, questions, and charts shared by the participants.
I have to admit I'm not receiving as much value here that I originally expected. I have the discipline to do the reflection myself, and I'm not getting much feedback from participants. I was hoping to work out some issues in a collaborative way. But so far that isn't happening. I spend hours working on a new trading plan for trading cycles and to be honest I'm a bit reluctant to just give it all away here.
Which got me thinking about coaching and also private collaboration. I've been collaborating privately via email with some other traders and it has been very rewarding. I even attempted a bit of coaching, only time will tell if the trader will do the work I ask.
I think private collaboration is more efficient for me. I've discussed naked
breakout trading with two people privately. In both cases I asked them to read some material and then mark up a month of charts looking for a pattern. I asked them to contact me when they've done that, or if they have questions while doing it.
Here's the beauty of it: If they do not do the work, I don't waste any more of my time!
So I'm going to take a break from posting. If anyone is truly serious about learning to trade with cycles, go over the information in this thread and try to apply it on your own charts. Post them. Ask questions. If I see people are serious then we can continue. If there are only a few then we'll continue privately via email.
For coaching, I'm currently thinking on how I want to do this. One idea I have is to have a small private trading room where people can see my charts and my trades real time. But I have a lot of issues to work out before hand and I prefer to have a few more months of proven profitability (via account statements).
Finally, if you're not interested in cycles that's fine and certainly understandable. But be honest with yourself.
Are you putting in the work to be successful in trading? Pick a method, spend 10-20 hours/week on it for several months. Annotate your charts. Share them if you can, even if privately. Ask for feedback. Ask questions. If you do this your chances of being successful are good. If you don't do this then quite frankly you have no chance.
I would wish everyone good luck but it's not about luck it's about
working your ass off. So instead I will wish everyone "Good work".
