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MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?
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MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
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MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?

Bottoming vol and dollar.

Topping yield curve.

Regional banks look like...

Major resistance S&P.

Topping emerging markets.

Cyclical top or simply a correction?

The stars sure look like they are lining up for a sell-off...imo.

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MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-vix.png   MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-dollar.png   MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-banks.png   MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-yield-curve.png   MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-spx.png   MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP?-emerging-mkts.png  
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  #3 (permalink)
Market Wizard
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here some positive reasons:

strong rally in the afternoon session. closed around HOD. back above support (1177).

if you would be talking about a stock, I would call you a paid basher. lol

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  #4 (permalink)
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you're comparing 3 hours of activity, to a "follow-on" asset bubble that has been in the making for 18 months

end of day buying was probably early front-running of tomorrow's mutual fund re-buying and tomorrow's POMO

in any case, SPX, RUT and DJIA still closed lower on the day...

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tigertrader View Post
you're comparing 3 hours of activity, to a "follow-on" asset bubble that has been in the making for 18 months

end of day buying was probably early front-running of tomorrow's mutual fund re-buying and tomorrow's POMO

in any case, SPX, RUT and DJIA still closed lower on the day...

I'm in no way applying that your judgement of the market is wrong. you might be right with all your points.

I'm just not a long term futures investor. so that strong rally this afternoon indicates to me that the up auction is still intact. of course that can change overnight or tomorrow. but for now my bias is bullish.

talking about bubbles. I don't know how long you're in this business. last century (that sounds weird), I mean in the 1990's we had a high tech bubble. after a couple of years many people were saying that stuff is overvalued, a bubble. they were right, but they missed one of the biggest rally in history and had to wait what, almost 10 years to be finally right.

with the environment we have today, I wouldn't be surprised to see the spx at 1500. time will tell.

and the markets need different opinions...

maybe I should explain why I think there's a big chance for higher prices. current valuation is not overvalued. I believe earnings estimates for next year of around $ 90.00 are very realistic. and if you take a p/e of about 17, then we are around 1500 in s&p. but the # 1 reason for me is, if stock prices remain or even decline from current levels and corporate borrowing costs stay low, companies would use that to buy back their own shares. and that would further increase earnings and the stock market would be even cheaper.

the only thing I'm worried about is the global uncertainty. we know bad news travel fast and can create panic pretty fast.


Last edited by Silvester17; October 28th, 2010 at 12:38 AM.
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Hmmmm.


tigertrader View Post
Bottoming vol and dollar.

Topping yield curve.

Regional banks look like...

Major resistance S&P.

Topping emerging markets.

Cyclical top or simply a correction?

The stars sure look like they are lining up for a sell-off...imo.

You have a least 4 threads in the past month asking if something is at a top. Hmmmm...

Andrew

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