It's definitely resistance but the index can correct without a "global meltdown".

I rarely engage in these kind of discussions as I'm not a fundamental trader - in fact far from it (has no bearing on trading profitably imo)
But I have to ask why you're looking at such a short term chart?

Here's a look at the weekly:


Tells a different story to me. The second test of the 50% retracement level in the past year suggests strength to me.
Sure, we're not likely to see those extreme highs for a long time, but just as we're unlikely to see the waterfall decline of 2007/2008 so soon, as you're suggesting.
Maybe we get a significant correction but I wouldn't rule out a move into the 50's.