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"Trend lines, S & R, Candles, Patterns, Fibs, Pivots, Multiple Time Frames and Gaps" are market "myths". An entire industry is built on those myths.
The only true chart is a 1-tick chart. Everything else is conceptual.
Price, volume and time. That is all that there is. Pick a time - there is ONE AND ONLY ONE price for that time. Pick another time - there is ONE AND ONLY ONE price for that time. If you want to know if price is up or down, compare those 2 prices. That is all there is.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Thanks for the reply. I have attached a couple of charts, would you mind commenting on whether or not my thoughts are on track with your previous comment.
"Price, volume and time. That is all that there is. Pick a time - there is ONE AND ONLY ONE price for that time. Pick another time - there is ONE AND ONLY ONE price for that time. If you want to know if price is up or down, compare those 2 prices. That is all there is."
Does volume play into these prices as I have indicated on the attached charts? Or do you have another way of looking at it?
I realize you directed this at TRO but I would argue that volume is like any other indicator...just that an indicator. If you find it a reliable item for you then use it. I don't think it is a predictor - if such a thing even exists. The point TRO is trying to make I believe is to draw a line and set your stops.
TRO,
How do you go about determining these " Lines " ???
Thanks,
RJay
No one can predict the future. Find your time frame which is chosen via your risk tolerance and draw a line. You can use a fib number, a murrey math number, an hourly open, etc. It doesn't matter much. You want price to move in your chosen direction enough to make a profit before it goes to your stop point. That's it. How many times have you gotten in and had the market instantly reverse on you. Do you then think that you should have used a different indicator and you wouldn't have made that mistake? So you go in search of that "different" indicator....maybe if you had been watching volume...
Prices are essentially random with a small component of random trend thrown in there. But you don't know when the trend starts or ends. Why don't you trade (on SIM) using nothing but an hourly line and see if your results are better or worse. Then add indicators as you see fit. Advantage - You don't stare at the chart forever. You just look at the setup every hour and see if you want to take it.
Hey Garry I think you did a good job to spot the pullback on low volume. I'll just add one thing, what I think about patterns. I think patterns do not predict but they can help put the probabilities in your favor. The thing is at any given moment something else can change everything.
Let's say in your example, all of a sudden a few big traders could have entered long and we'd see price continue up. I think as long as one can adapt and shift from seeing a probably retractment to a probable advancement then it's ok to think patterns.
Where I used to get into trouble is I'd see a volume pattern like HVC and say "ok the pro's just entered long so this is going up" and then wonder why I got stopped out. Now I say "ok pro's are in now let's see if this attracts more buyers. Oops, not enough buyers, this is losing momentum. Now sellers are coming in time to reverse". See the difference?
I also agree about TRO's comment about drawing a line and trading it. I'm actually practicing this with the Euro which has nice big moves and I think it's easier. For ES, at least lately (last month) this isn't easy to do. Today there was too much chop on ES. There was a 6 pt range today. If you pick your line near the top or bottom it's easier. If your line is in the middle you're going to get killed.
TRO - can you give us some examples of how/where to draw your line?
You are right, I just look for the highest probability set ups and go from there.
"Where I used to get into trouble is I'd see a volume pattern like HVC and say "ok the pro's just entered long so this is going up" and then wonder why I got stopped out. Now I say "ok pro's are in now let's see if this attracts more buyers. Oops, not enough buyers, this is losing momentum. Now sellers are coming in time to reverse". See the difference?"
What you have learned, has cost me two stop outs in the last week. What you are saying is exactly right, it had to learn 5 ticks twice the hard way. And yes, there is a big difference
"I also agree about TRO's comment about drawing a line and trading it. I'm actually practicing this with the Euro which has nice big moves and I think it's easier. For ES, at least lately (last month) this isn't easy to do. Today there was too much chop on ES. There was a 6 pt range today. If you pick your line near the top or bottom it's easier. If your line is in the middle you're going to get killed."
In a conversation yesterday with TRO he began explaining things to me. I feel that
he has a lot of wisdom to pass to others, if others will just listen to him without judgment. This is such a good group, I hope he will help us all to become
better traders.
Observations on the value of multiple time frames.
When traders from many different time frames see a set up, the cumulative power of all of these traders strengthens the odds, to make it a high probability trade.
Attached are a couple of charts that stress a few points that I have learned along the way. The lesson on Volume came a week or so ago, thanks to Cunparis, I just tied it in to my MTFs.
Things to notice on the charts, that make this a high probability trade:
1. Point A on all 3 charts HVC, PA can't take out a previous high, which is the session high. (prove it, prove it, prove it) The fact that a session high can't be taken out tells me a lot.
2. The fourth chart attached is the TLB (trend line break) on the 1398 tick. Point A is also
the retest of the 1043.50 area.
3. The FisherYur4ik indicates weakness or divergence on the areas noted on the chart.
Very good observation about MTF. This is the only way I'll trade on a pullback, if I see that the pullback occurs at a cyclical turning point on several timeframes.
on the other hand, I am having second thoughts about MTFs. For 2 weeks now I trade 1 timeframe only. I have toggled back and forth between say 5 min and 150 tick. If you're trading the major S/R levels then the tick chart just shows noise. So far I'm feeling like I can do without them.
TRO's comments on MTF also keep me thinking about this. Good topic.
PS: You often post BMP files, I think on accident. It makes viewing the images very slow. I think the forum shouldn't accept BMP, I'm not sure how you do it.
