Has QE2 been fully priced into the market, and was today's price action signaling a top?
Chart 1 - near perfect correlation between the AUD and and the SPY( negative correlation USD/SPY)
Chart 2 - double-top and lower high on the 120 min. in the AUD
Chart 3 - potential 2bar top against BB Band and psychological top in AUD at 1.000 (parity with USD) USD weakness is causing AUD strength, but is causing stress on Australia’s export markets.
Chart 4 - massive divergence between JPY and SPY - sell SPY/ buy YEN = convergence trade
Chart 5 - AUD-JPY Aussie Dollar weakness vs. YEN - The AUD's surge to parity with the USD may be short-lived, as the currency’s slide over the past year against Japan’s yen signals concern exporters will face lower margins.
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
Chart 1: EURUSD has reached an intermediary target, it should pause. Some European countries are in trouble as well.
Chart 2: AUDUSD is at parity. I think that this will cause a hefty correction.
Chart 3: I have marked all days with a low sentiment reading (ISEE < 90). The low sentiment never appears to be neutral, either it is bearish (what it is supposed to be) or it acts as a oversold indication (at bottoms). During the last six weeks there were three low sentiment readings. Each of the first two ones has resulted in a second correction, so I would not be astonished, if we see a 5% correction with a target of 1123 / 1124. The MACD below however shows a lot of strength, so we might then have a retest of the high later in the year with ES close to 1200.
Last edited by Fat Tails; October 21st, 2010 at 07:17 PM.
The following 5 users say Thank You to Fat Tails for this post: