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Started:October 21st, 2010 (05:42 PM) by tigertrader Views / Replies:989 / 3
Last Reply:October 21st, 2010 (06:41 PM) Attachments:8

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Old October 21st, 2010, 05:42 PM   #1 (permalink)
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Has QE2 been fully priced into the market, and was today's price action signaling a top?

Chart 1 - near perfect correlation between the AUD and and the SPY( negative correlation USD/SPY)

Chart 2 - double-top and lower high on the 120 min. in the AUD

Chart 3 - potential 2bar top against BB Band and psychological top in AUD at 1.000 (parity with USD) USD weakness is causing AUD strength, but is causing stress on Australia’s export markets.

Chart 4 - massive divergence between JPY and SPY - sell SPY/ buy YEN = convergence trade

Chart 5 - AUD-JPY Aussie Dollar weakness vs. YEN - The AUD's surge to parity with the USD may be short-lived, as the currency’s slide over the past year against Japan’s yen signals concern exporters will face lower margins.

Attached Thumbnails
IS THE TOP HERE?-c6a72f81a80ce15742a147b45b9cd6ba.png   IS THE TOP HERE?-011aef3b1972198a3806f7169d1e4793.png   IS THE TOP HERE?-cce5c898d4dfdb4da079f604fe0ff5f9.png   IS THE TOP HERE?-496c754f2d9520e9e597081909ea2af4.png   IS THE TOP HERE?-5435a5f3818ab962e51746f63d25552b.png  
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Old October 21st, 2010, 05:42 PM   #2 (permalink)
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Old October 21st, 2010, 06:19 PM   #3 (permalink)
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looking left there were many times red bars broke thru up trend lines but eventually market made u turns and continues its climb, all I see is it is in a range before moving up again, jmho.
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Old October 21st, 2010, 06:41 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I am not sure about it.

Chart 1: EURUSD has reached an intermediary target, it should pause. Some European countries are in trouble as well.

Chart 2: AUDUSD is at parity. I think that this will cause a hefty correction.

Chart 3: I have marked all days with a low sentiment reading (ISEE < 90). The low sentiment never appears to be neutral, either it is bearish (what it is supposed to be) or it acts as a oversold indication (at bottoms). During the last six weeks there were three low sentiment readings. Each of the first two ones has resulted in a second correction, so I would not be astonished, if we see a 5% correction with a target of 1123 / 1124. The MACD below however shows a lot of strength, so we might then have a retest of the high later in the year with ES close to 1200.

Attached Thumbnails
IS THE TOP HERE?-qe1.jpg   IS THE TOP HERE?-qe2.jpg   IS THE TOP HERE?-qe3.jpg  

Last edited by Fat Tails; October 21st, 2010 at 07:17 PM.
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