ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500? - Traders Hideout | futures io social day trading
futures io futures trading


ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?
Updated: Views / Replies:2,096 / 10
Created: by tigertrader Attachments:3

Welcome to futures io.

(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)

futures io is the largest futures trading community on the planet, with over 90,000 members. At futures io, our goal has always been and always will be to create a friendly, positive, forward-thinking community where members can openly share and discuss everything the world of trading has to offer. The community is one of the friendliest you will find on any subject, with members going out of their way to help others. Some of the primary differences between futures io and other trading sites revolve around the standards of our community. Those standards include a code of conduct for our members, as well as extremely high standards that govern which partners we do business with, and which products or services we recommend to our members.

At futures io, our focus is on quality education. No hype, gimmicks, or secret sauce. The truth is: trading is hard. To succeed, you need to surround yourself with the right support system, educational content, and trading mentors Ė all of which you can find on futures io, utilizing our social trading environment.

With futures io, you can find honest trading reviews on brokers, trading rooms, indicator packages, trading strategies, and much more. Our trading review process is highly moderated to ensure that only genuine users are allowed, so you donít need to worry about fake reviews.

We are fundamentally different than most other trading sites:
  • We are here to help. Just let us know what you need.
  • We work extremely hard to keep things positive in our community.
  • We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts.
  • We firmly believe in and encourage sharing. The holy grail is within you, we can help you find it.
  • We expect our members to participate and become a part of the community. Help yourself by helping others.

You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community.  It's free and simple.

-- Big Mike, Site Administrator

Reply
 3  
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
 

ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?

  #1 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received

ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?

Are we nearing the top of the March 2009 cyclical rally, which is part of the secular bear market that began in 2000?

Monthly chart of the SPX, it is approaching major resistance at the 50MA at about the 1200 level.

Daily chart of the SPX , both the rate of change and money flow index, started to fall about mid September, as the market continued to rally. This suggests that the "smart money" was selling into the rally.

Daily chart of the VIX w/ 5period RSI, the VIX is approaching 6 months lows and very oversold readings.

Attached Thumbnails
ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?-97b3e213b830eac180e69d97e083f2ac.png   ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?-bbbe79348addee415ede16798fdffa71.png   ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?-efe6f7ccc53c605a6425f8e6ab185a44.png  

Last edited by tigertrader; October 12th, 2010 at 11:15 PM.
Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #2 (permalink)
Site Administrator
Manta, Ecuador
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: My own custom solution
Favorite Futures: E-mini ES S&P 500
 
Big Mike's Avatar
 
Posts: 46,238 since Jun 2009
Thanks: 29,350 given, 83,215 received


tigertrader View Post
Tried uploading the video, but couldn't. Is there any way to do so.?

mp4 and avi files are not accepted. Just zip it first, then upload the zip. Zip files up to 256MB are accepted fine.

Mike

Due to time constraints, please do not PM me if your question can be resolved or answered on the forum.

Need help?
1) Stop changing things. No new indicators, charts, or methods. Be consistent with what is in front of you first.
2) Start a journal and post to it daily with the trades you made to show your strengths and weaknesses.
3) Set goals for yourself to reach daily. Make them about how you trade, not how much money you make.
4) Accept responsibility for your actions. Stop looking elsewhere to explain away poor performance.
5) Where to start as a trader? Watch this webinar and read this thread for hundreds of questions and answers.
6)
Help using the forum? Watch this video to learn general tips on using the site.

If you want
to support our community, become an Elite Member.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to Big Mike for this post:
 
  #3 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, Il
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: X_TRADER
Favorite Futures: currency futures
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 19 received


The VIX chart is pretty damning for the market. Vol is getting crushed. I don't think ESZ0 will clear 1200 and think we'll move back to 1040.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to twoshepards for this post:
 
  #4 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received

I hear what you're saying, but "investors" seem to be high on "QE2hopium" for the time being. Hard to tell if QE2 has been fully priced into the market, but when it is ...look out below.

Reply With Quote
 
  #5 (permalink)
Elite Member
las vegas
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart
Broker/Data: Velocity/IB
Favorite Futures: 6E
 
Posts: 1,147 since Feb 2010
Thanks: 304 given, 836 received

it's one of those tea cup and handle things, we're going all the way to 2500!

Reply With Quote
 
  #6 (permalink)
Elite Member
San Francisco Bay Area
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: NT,TOS,IB
Favorite Futures: ES,CL,TF
 
Posts: 278 since Jun 2010
Thanks: 154 given, 267 received

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

Selling on Strength day

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to aviat72 for this post:
 
  #7 (permalink)
Elite Member
Philly, Pa
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: NinjaTrader
Favorite Futures: ES, ZB
 
tigertrader's Avatar
 
Posts: 5,948 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 6,314 given, 31,870 received

"it's one of those tea cup and handle things, we're going all the way to 2500!"


For that to happen, QE2 would have to be a an enormous success, i.e., have a positive effect on the real economy and a positive effect on money supply and the velocity of money so that it could create inflation.

QE1 failed to reverse deflation and failed to create job growth or create new business investment, because the money went into the coffers of the banks, which failed to lend it out. Money supply actually shrank, as investors continued to deleverage.

All QE2 is going to accomplish is to push more money into bloated bank reserve accounts. Adding more reserves to a banking system that already has more reserves than it can use has no net effect on the money supply. It's like Bill Gates making more money and expecting that his lifestyle will become bigger.

The market may be rallying for the moment as investors front run the Fed, but as Hendrix wrote, the real economy is "like a castle made of sand" and sandcastles all fall into the sea...eventually.



Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to tigertrader for this post:
 
  #8 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, Il
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: X_TRADER
Favorite Futures: currency futures
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 19 received

QE2 will be a big failure. Institutional investors know that, mom and pop invstors don't. Mom and pop may even pick up their ira/401k/mutual fund investments while the portolio manager buys stocks to put the money to work, the pm is selling vol on top to hedge.

Reply With Quote
The following user says Thank You to twoshepards for this post:
 
  #9 (permalink)
Market Wizard
Columbus, OH
 
Futures Experience: None
Platform: NT 8, TOS
Favorite Futures: ES
 
Silvester17's Avatar
 
Posts: 3,332 since Aug 2009
Thanks: 4,579 given, 10,313 received


twoshepards View Post
QE2 will be a big failure. Institutional investors know that, mom and pop invstors don't. Mom and pop may even pick up their ira/401k/mutual fund investments while the portolio manager buys stocks to put the money to work, the pm is selling vol on top to hedge.

very true. totally agree.

but here's the problem. I would say 8 out of 10 institutional investors agree with you, QE2 will be a big failure. but now a big surprise, QE2 is not as bad (whatever reason). guess what, those 8 out of 10 institutional investors will have to cover the shorts or chasing the markets. and mom and pop live happily ever after.

Reply With Quote
The following 2 users say Thank You to Silvester17 for this post:
 
  #10 (permalink)
Trading Apprentice
Chicago, Il
 
Futures Experience: Master
Platform: X_TRADER
Favorite Futures: currency futures
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2010
Thanks: 3 given, 19 received


The funds are not 'shorting' the market. They're covering their exposure but selling calls versus the underlying long posions. As they can deliver the long vs. the short call, they're risking not participating on an extended rally. I think SPX 1200 will be a big tell. If we rocket higher after closing above it, they're getting back in vs. short 1200 calls. I think resistance will hold and we won't get there, but time will tell.

Reply With Quote
The following 3 users say Thank You to twoshepards for this post:

Reply



futures io > > > ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search



Upcoming Webinars and Events (4:30PM ET unless noted)

Linda Bradford Raschke: Reading The Tape

Elite only

Adam Grimes: TBA

Elite only

NinjaTrader: TBA

January

Ran Aroussi: TBA

Elite only
     

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
S&P 500 Premium Symbol???? fesx Traders Hideout 6 October 17th, 2014 09:26 AM
The Lost Decade For The S&P 500 kbit News and Current Events 0 July 25th, 2011 08:59 AM
Books on Emini S&P 500 one53brooklane Traders Hideout 2 March 1st, 2011 08:01 PM
MONTH END SELLING OR CYCLICAL TOP? tigertrader Traders Hideout 5 October 27th, 2010 10:19 PM
cunparis weekly S&P 500 Outlook cunparis Traders Hideout 46 October 24th, 2009 05:42 AM


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 01:33 PM.

Copyright © 2017 by futures io, s.a., Av Ricardo J. Alfaro, Century Tower, Panama, +507 833-9432, info@futures.io
All information is for educational use only and is not investment advice.
There is a substantial risk of loss in trading commodity futures, stocks, options and foreign exchange products. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
no new posts
Page generated 2017-12-11 in 0.12 seconds with 20 queries on phoenix via your IP 54.145.16.43