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ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?
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ARE WE NEARING A CYCLICAL TOP IN THE S&P 500?

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The funds are not 'shorting' the market. They're covering their exposure but selling calls versus the underlying long posions. As they can deliver the long vs. the short call, they're risking not participating on an extended rally. I think SPX 1200 will be a big tell. If we rocket higher after closing above it, they're getting back in vs. short 1200 calls. I think resistance will hold and we won't get there, but time will tell.


The one side-effect of the torrid market move over the past 40 days that every bull had been hoping for, a massive, and self-sustaining short covering spree, has completely failed to materialize. Despite what is now a 10%+ move since early September, predicated by nothing more than the dollar debasement and QE2 expectations, NYSE short interest remained virtually unchanged for the past 30 days, starting the month at 14.36 billion shares and ending the month at14.35 billion! In other words, the shorts' conviction that the rally is based on nothing fundamental is as strong now as it was when they were 10% more in the money. And that they are willing to experience such pain reinforces their expectation, right or not, that the market is way overbought and is due for a major pullback.

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