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TRADE DURATIONS (am I getting it right?)


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TRADE DURATIONS (am I getting it right?)

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  #1 (permalink)
 SBtrader82 
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Looking at my history of trades with the prop firm FTMO I discovered something really astonishing (see table below):
if I group trades by duration I discover that I lose 226K USD on trades trades lasting less than 10 minutes. This completely blew my mind.

Let me make some considerations:
FIRST REACTION: "wow!!! Just hold trades for more than 10 minutes and you will be fine"

SECOND THOUGHT: Well.... maybe there are many losers that you closed quickly and that was good. Now if you force yourself to hold them for 10m or more these losers willl translate in losses in the 10m range... so the positive results will "shift" to trades lasting longer.

THIRD THOUGHT:
Let's say that I take trades on a 1H chart, so in theory most of my trades should last at least one hour. Or Let's say in other words that my trades are supposed to need some time to work out and they will need 60+ minutes, most probably if they do not work out they will not be stopped out in 5 minutes.
So it's fair to assume that I can match the trades lasting 1 hour with losers lasting more than 10 min, in that case I can really say that by focusing on taking longer lasting trades I can increase my performance by a lot.

LEt me know what you think.... I know it sounds a silly question but for me it's not.

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 Trailer Guy 
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So what is the context? What are your trades compared to the normal background movement in that market at that time frame? Futures Trader 71 on his Convergent Trading site publishes average rotations by market. Size and time. If your trade set ups are out of sync with those normal rotations that could be an issue. Personally I am not that sophisticated, but I do change my targets and stop losses based on the ATR.

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 SomePsychoDude 
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Hi.
Yes, the higher timeframe is the less random it is and vice versa.
That's why really few people can make money intraday over the long term. Intraday is very good to teach you how to take losses, but for making money...hell no.
Just look at Jack Schwager's Market Wizards, they almost all don't day trade.
Or look at your results, don't kid yourself.

The Dude.

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 SBtrader82 
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Yes, that's exactly what I am realizing after many years. Most of the days there is really no trade or only minor ones.
Then suddenly there is a trade that "emerges" and it goes on for days, like the long after NFP last Friday.

So to me the best trades always last 3 or 4 days.....and they have amazing risk reward. However I often feel like "I must do something" and some trades are legit, though they are lasting only 2 or 3 hours.


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  #5 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
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SBtrader82 View Post
So to me the best trades always last 3 or 4 days.....and they have amazing risk reward.

Price movement and setups with amazing risk/reward are exactly the same and can be found on every timeframe (and market) including the fastest that can be out there due to the fractal nature of the markets.
For 100% discretionary trader the faster timeframe is, the more messy trades it provokes. You can run your account for a little bit, and that bit can be even years, but in the end, you will be gone.
You are a programmer guy who loves to study and etc., so I really think it's better to do systematic trading in your case. And in the end, day trading is a battlefield where algos are competing with each other.

As for amazing risk/reward, to me is something where you can make 1to10 and more, but the range of 1 to 2-6 is just regular proper trading with many base hits.

The Dude.

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 SBtrader82 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
Price movement and setups with amazing risk/reward are exactly the same and can be found on every timeframe (and market) including the fastest that can be out there due to the fractal nature of the markets.

For 100% discretionary trader the faster timeframe is, the more messy trades it provokes. You can run your account for a little bit, and that bit can be even years, but in the end, you will be gone.

You are a programmer guy who loves to study and etc., so I really think it's better to do systematic trading in your case. And in the end, day trading is a battlefield where algos are competing with each other.



As for amazing risk/reward, to me is something where you can make 1to10 and more, but the range of 1 to 2-6 is just regular proper trading with many base hits.



The Dude.

Do you mean that on a regular day you can find many trades with RR 2:1 to 6:1.....and from time to time even 10:1 ??

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  #7 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
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Just look at a 1min timeframe and imagine as if it is daily bars, therefore the answer is yes, but try to trade out of those, day after day sitting 12 hours before a screen, tracking multiple trading vehicles simultaneously, and working in that regime week after week, month after month, year after year, with poker face like a machine and without any automation at all=)

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 bobwest 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
Just look at a 1min timeframe and imagine as if it is daily bars, therefore the answer is yes, but try to trade out of those, day after day sitting 12 hours before a screen, tracking multiple trading vehicles simultaneously, and working in that regime week after week, month after month, year after year, with poker face like a machine and without any automation at all=)

I have had to read all your posts in this thread to get what you mean, but now I think I get it. Let me say it another way, and you tell me if I understood: the same methods that work on longer-term timeframes can work just fine on any timeframe, but if you scale them down to short-term periods where you are watching perhaps for hours while price wiggles up and down, your fatigue and other mental/human/psychological factors basically short-circuit you and your performance degrades because you can't keep it up.

I don't know if that's exactly what you mean, but I certainly have experienced it or something close enough to it.

I still prefer short-term, but this purely human factor is something I have to deal with.

If this is what you meant, thanks, because it helps me to understand things somewhat.

My ways to cope don't involve going longer-term, but to taking frequent breaks and short walks, having loss limits, trading only within certain (highly active) times, stopping when it's not working, tying to keep perspective on what is happening, things like that. I still like it better than long-term, and I'm still working on it.

Bob.

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 SomePsychoDude 
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bobwest View Post
Let me say it another way, and you tell me if I understood: the same methods that work on longer-term timeframes can work just fine on any timeframe, but if you scale them down to short-term periods where you are watching perhaps for hours while price wiggles up and down, your fatigue and other mental/human/psychological factors basically short-circuit you and your performance degrades because you can't keep it up.

Yes, Mr.Bob, it's exactly what I mean. I think if someone is "cut" for intraday without going nuts after a while you can make money very fast.

Dude.

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 tigertrader 
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Personally, I believe the answer is deceptively simple. You can only "take" what the market gives you.

If you go into the game without any expectations, there's a good chance you won't be disappointed, and you won't become frustrated. And, you will trade well!

The trick is to make the best out of the cards that have been dealt you.

Don't focus on your “expectations” of the market and how much money you're going to take from it; just trade what's there.

There will be days you can trade from the opening-to-close, in a low volume, small range, low vol environment, and make very good money.

You just have up your size and adjust your style.

And, then THERE will be days when the market breaks out, reverses, or continues a trend; and, you can milk it for days, trading around the position.

Be patient, then aggressive.

P&L below is from 01/11/2023 the day before the CPI release. It was exactly the kind of day I described above. But, there were plenty of intraday moves.

I was trading 1-3 units (7lots/unit) at a crack, with very little risk, using the $TICK, VWAP, and options flow.

There is almost always money to be made, if you are able to adapt to the market presented you.



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