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Uncertainty & Recent Volatility: Good or Bad for your own personal trading?


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Uncertainty & Recent Volatility: Good or Bad for your own personal trading?

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  #11 (permalink)
redbarntrades
Kalispell=Mt./USA
 
 
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chipwitch View Post
Yes, both of those things are subjective. I don't have any particular definition in mind. Scalping can be anything from a couple ticks to 10 points I suppose (ES). Basically anything short term, under a couple minutes is how I see it. No hard fast rules. Me personally, at the moment, I'm looking to just get 4 to 8 ticks. This is a trial basis, mind you.



I would say "yes". I attempted to. I wasn't successful with it.

I'm still trying to find my strategy. The 4 to 8 ticks is what I attempted when I first got back to trading and wasn't having much success with it paper trading. My stops usually had to be out 8 to 10 points to get a couple points. My win rate wasn't up to that kind of spread. At that time I was only trading on tech analysis of candlesticks. But I would also have up a Heikin Ashi 1-minute. I relied heavily on a 2 tick range chart with T&S based indicators I created for fine tuning entry and exit. I could go into a lot more detail about that strategy, but essentially it just wasn't working for me so I won't bore you with it.

I would try to identify levels using basic tech analysis but that is also subjective. Obviously I wasn't doing very well with it. I've since been studying using the DOM/Ladder and the results look promising, though I've only just started.


That's pretty impressive! My preliminary tests with DOM are coming in between 70-80% with almost a 1/1 r/r. But there's room for improvement. I need to do a lot more study. The DOM gives me a pretty high degree of confidence what will happen in the next 20 seconds, but I'm still cautiously optimistic.



I can relate. Catching a 30 point move is a rush and saved my day a couple times in my 2 weeks of live trading. But, like you, I think I can come to terms with missing out on those as long as my account size increases at the end of the day.

Thank you for your thoughtful reply!
It appears to me that you are on a good track. A large portion of my own journey has been coming to grips how my own brain works.

Best regards!

One thing that has been very very helpful to me is when I purchased a lifetime license for TickStrike. That was a couple of months ago. I personally don't bother with the DOM. I use it sometimes for entries/exits. I have 14 TickStrike miniature windows open. When they all turn green/red and judging by the frequency of the clicking, I use this in conjunction with my entries.

In regards to your R/R ratio, in my opinion, you can make plenty of money. For a long time, I was risking 1 to make .50. High win rate, but I went back to the drawing board as I knew that in the long run, things would be easier if I had at least a 1/1.

Even if you would have less than a 1/1, if your win rate is high, what's wrong with that?

So much of this game is the fear issue. But, we each have to figure that out for ourselves huh?

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  #12 (permalink)
redbarntrades
Kalispell=Mt./USA
 
 
Posts: 189 since Sep 2019
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chipwitch View Post
Yes, both of those things are subjective. I don't have any particular definition in mind. Scalping can be anything from a couple ticks to 10 points I suppose (ES). Basically anything short term, under a couple minutes is how I see it. No hard fast rules. Me personally, at the moment, I'm looking to just get 4 to 8 ticks. This is a trial basis, mind you.



I would say "yes". I attempted to. I wasn't successful with it.

I'm still trying to find my strategy. The 4 to 8 ticks is what I attempted when I first got back to trading and wasn't having much success with it paper trading. My stops usually had to be out 8 to 10 points to get a couple points. My win rate wasn't up to that kind of spread. At that time I was only trading on tech analysis of candlesticks. But I would also have up a Heikin Ashi 1-minute. I relied heavily on a 2 tick range chart with T&S based indicators I created for fine tuning entry and exit. I could go into a lot more detail about that strategy, but essentially it just wasn't working for me so I won't bore you with it.

I would try to identify levels using basic tech analysis but that is also subjective. Obviously I wasn't doing very well with it. I've since been studying using the DOM/Ladder and the results look promising, though I've only just started.


That's pretty impressive! My preliminary tests with DOM are coming in between 70-80% with almost a 1/1 r/r. But there's room for improvement. I need to do a lot more study. The DOM gives me a pretty high degree of confidence what will happen in the next 20 seconds, but I'm still cautiously optimistic.



I can relate. Catching a 30 point move is a rush and saved my day a couple times in my 2 weeks of live trading. But, like you, I think I can come to terms with missing out on those as long as my account size increases at the end of the day.

Hi, in case you are interested, here is an example of TickStrike. This is what appeared at 14:19ish, when there was a pullback of 16 ticks. I only share this with you as you are looking for short moves. I absolutely love this thing. Found out about it from LancelotTrader.

If the windows are green, I look for a red VIX window and vice versa.

For me, TickStrike enhances my understanding what is going on. You can see orderflow and hear it too. Pauses, rushes etc.

Obviously, when you use it in conjunction with the immediate trend, you can have great results. Or in this case above, if you are looking for a pullback to go short, you wait until the green windows disappear and the windows light up in red.



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  #13 (permalink)
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
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redbarntrades View Post
In regards to your R/R ratio, in my opinion, you can make plenty of money. For a long time, I was risking 1 to make .50. High win rate, but I went back to the drawing board as I knew that in the long run, things would be easier if I had at least a 1/1.

Even if you would have less than a 1/1, if your win rate is high, what's wrong with that?

Nothing at all! I prefer the high win rate/low profit to the low win rate/ high profit, though both are viable strategies.


Quoting 
So much of this game is the fear issue. But, we each have to figure that out for ourselves huh?

Yes! I lost 30k on a short squeeze 20 something years ago. I didn't have the nerve to trade again until about 4 months ago. I'm older... hopefully wiser and MUCH more risk aware. Still, fear is present. I've always been very emotionally aware/introspective. I think that has helped me a great deal in trading, but emotional growth is a life long endeavor, right? The fear I wasn't quite prepared for. I would feel it some days as soon as I awoke, anticipating my first trade of the day. Even paper trading. It is greatly diminished but I haven't live traded much in the last week or so. I'll probably be back live trading next week. It will be interesting to see if anything has changed on the fear-front. Having confidence in your trading strategy helps a lot. I haven't had much confidence in that. I'm feeling increasingly confident which should help rid myself of the fear, whether the confidence is based on anything real or not, lol. Sometimes, ignorance is at the heart of courage.

Best of luck to you!

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  #14 (permalink)
redbarntrades
Kalispell=Mt./USA
 
 
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chipwitch View Post
Nothing at all! I prefer the high win rate/low profit to the low win rate/ high profit, though both are viable strategies.



Yes! I lost 30k on a short squeeze 20 something years ago. I didn't have the nerve to trade again until about 4 months ago. I'm older... hopefully wiser and MUCH more risk aware. Still, fear is present. I've always been very emotionally aware/introspective. I think that has helped me a great deal in trading, but emotional growth is a life long endeavor, right? The fear I wasn't quite prepared for. I would feel it some days as soon as I awoke, anticipating my first trade of the day. Even paper trading. It is greatly diminished but I haven't live traded much in the last week or so. I'll probably be back live trading next week. It will be interesting to see if anything has changed on the fear-front. Having confidence in your trading strategy helps a lot. I haven't had much confidence in that. I'm feeling increasingly confident which should help rid myself of the fear, whether the confidence is based on anything real or not, lol. Sometimes, ignorance is at the heart of courage.

Best of luck to you!

Thank you!

My wife also trades. She trades the MNQ and I the MES. I relate to this post as my wife and I have had these similar conversations over the last 5 years.

What has helped my "fear" is consistent repetition.

Success to you!

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  #15 (permalink)
 chipwitch 
Nashville, TN
 
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redbarntrades View Post
Hi, in case you are interested, here is an example of TickStrike. This is what appeared at 14:19ish, when there was a pullback of 16 ticks. I only share this with you as you are looking for short moves. I absolutely love this thing. Found out about it from LancelotTrader.

If the windows are green, I look for a red VIX window and vice versa.

For me, TickStrike enhances my understanding what is going on. You can see orderflow and hear it too. Pauses, rushes etc.

Obviously, when you use it in conjunction with the immediate trend, you can have great results. Or in this case above, if you are looking for a pullback to go short, you wait until the green windows disappear and the windows light up in red.



Thanks for posting the chart! I looked up TickStrike after you mentioned it. It does look interesting. I have NT and tried using their DOM a few times. I refuse to pay 10 cents per trade for the static DOM and their dynamic DOM was useless to me. I was really interested in Jigsaw's DOM but found out that Sierra has it as well so I went that route. The biggest difference between SC and NT DOMs is that I can add columns to show the volume at price and the pulls/stacks. NT can't do the pull/stacks. The problem is that your eyes are trying to scan 4 columns across 20 prices, plus the volume at price chart. Then... add at least two more DOMs for correlated markets.... while ALL of them are jumping around! TickStrike would put some of that load on the ears which are just sitting there doing nothing, the free-loaders.

I would be interested in trying it out. I couldn't find anything on a lifetime license, though. Their site just shows $99/month. Seems high, but if you can make money with it....

Is your wife a member of FIO? How is she doing with her trading?

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  #16 (permalink)
redbarntrades
Kalispell=Mt./USA
 
 
Posts: 189 since Sep 2019
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chipwitch View Post
Thanks for posting the chart! I looked up TickStrike after you mentioned it. It does look interesting. I have NT and tried using their DOM a few times. I refuse to pay 10 cents per trade for the static DOM and their dynamic DOM was useless to me. I was really interested in Jigsaw's DOM but found out that Sierra has it as well so I went that route. The biggest difference between SC and NT DOMs is that I can add columns to show the volume at price and the pulls/stacks. NT can't do the pull/stacks. The problem is that your eyes are trying to scan 4 columns across 20 prices, plus the volume at price chart. Then... add at least two more DOMs for correlated markets.... while ALL of them are jumping around! TickStrike would put some of that load on the ears which are just sitting there doing nothing, the free-loaders.

I would be interested in trying it out. I couldn't find anything on a lifetime license, though. Their site just shows $99/month. Seems high, but if you can make money with it....

Is your wife a member of FIO? How is she doing with her trading?

Hi, she is doing well.

I will comment later as I have to sign out.

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  #17 (permalink)
redbarntrades
Kalispell=Mt./USA
 
 
Posts: 189 since Sep 2019
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chipwitch View Post
Thanks for posting the chart! I looked up TickStrike after you mentioned it. It does look interesting. I have NT and tried using their DOM a few times. I refuse to pay 10 cents per trade for the static DOM and their dynamic DOM was useless to me. I was really interested in Jigsaw's DOM but found out that Sierra has it as well so I went that route. The biggest difference between SC and NT DOMs is that I can add columns to show the volume at price and the pulls/stacks. NT can't do the pull/stacks. The problem is that your eyes are trying to scan 4 columns across 20 prices, plus the volume at price chart. Then... add at least two more DOMs for correlated markets.... while ALL of them are jumping around! TickStrike would put some of that load on the ears which are just sitting there doing nothing, the free-loaders.

I would be interested in trying it out. I couldn't find anything on a lifetime license, though. Their site just shows $99/month. Seems high, but if you can make money with it....

Is your wife a member of FIO? How is she doing with her trading?

Good evening,

I understand the challenge of what you described above. Some can do it. They can read the DOM. They can read order prints. Not me. No way.

But, I can do other things. One is utilizing TickStrike. I not only love the product, but the vendor "Aamar" is first class. His customer service is second to none.

You could try it. If you don't like it, he will refund your subscription.

I do believe he still offers a license. I believe I paid $999.00

It's a chunk, but I would do it again. (I'm not affiliated with him, but am happy to share what I know)

He is the type of person that I like to be doing business with and able to communicate with now and then.

I asked if he could add certain ETF's to the platform. He promptly replied and said he would get after it. After a few days, there they appeared.

I had seen Peter Reznicek refer to different ETF's as being a large part of the S&P.

Ok, touch basis with my trading wife if you wish. I sent you her contact detail.

Cheers!

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 GFIs1 
Legendary Market Wizard
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bobwest View Post

...I basically try to read all the trading journals here. Of the ones who improve and succeed, none of them use the same "method" as any of the others who also improve and succeed (even if they call it the same method, such as "price action"). But there are successes. I don't think any of them could sit down and write a book that would actually tell someone else how to do it, however. There's too much individualization...

Bob.

Thanks Bob for the hint! I have not the time writing books be it on trading or more touching themes right now. But will come in low tide of the markets. Promised

Trading is about a flying carpet. If you have some genes on interpreting the sky and the clouds then you are capable to promise a high probable direction for the carpet of interest. (by GFIs1 - a glider pilot)

Have a sunny weekend! And thanks for following the upcoming journals here. Was not meant mine...

GFIs1

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 tony0366 
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Movement's sniper friend.

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