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Win Rate %?


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Win Rate %?

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  #1 (permalink)
rocketstock
Denver CO
 
 
Posts: 40 since Dec 2021
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What is the highest win rate you have gotten with autmated strategies? ES mini on day trading? Which time frames?

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Symple
Zuerich / Switzerland
 
 
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rocketstock View Post
What is the highest win rate you have gotten with autmated strategies? ES mini on day trading? Which time frames?

About what specific kind of "Autmated strategies" you are talking? Kindly provide some more information to the forum about what you have in mind or even know in dept about any automated strategies.

Symple

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  #3 (permalink)
rocketstock
Denver CO
 
 
Posts: 40 since Dec 2021
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not a complicated question.

Any automated script that trades for folks here? What's the win % or trades irrespective of % of profit. How many trades are successful compared to not?

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  #4 (permalink)
Symple
Zuerich / Switzerland
 
 
Posts: 268 since Sep 2021
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rocketstock View Post
not a complicated question.

Any automated script that trades for folks here? What's the win % or trades irrespective of % of profit. How many trades are successful compared to not?

@rocketstock

As I do not and never have done automated script trading, as it did not fit my way of trading in very active times, I not can provide you any answer to your question. But I am sure some folks here in the forum are able to do so and are able to answer your question.

Wish you further all the best and good success in your way of making good money with it.

Symple

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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rocketstock View Post
not a complicated question.

Any automated script that trades for folks here? What's the win % or trades irrespective of % of profit. How many trades are successful compared to not?

I have some strategies that win 20% of the time. I have other strategies that win 95+% of time.

Not sure how that will help you, but that's my answer.

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rocketstock
Denver CO
 
 
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kevinkdog View Post
I have some strategies that win 20% of the time. I have other strategies that win 95+% of time.

Not sure how that will help you, but that's my answer.



That is helpful. At least I know someone got to 95 % successful trades on ES mini. Impressive.

I am running scripts/strategies over a period of 1-month backtesting ES mini. So far its only 55 % successful trades. 3 min time frame.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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rocketstock View Post
That is helpful. At least I know someone got to 95 % successful trades on ES mini. Impressive.

I am running scripts/strategies over a period of 1-month backtesting ES mini. So far its only 55 % successful trades. 3 min time frame.


95% really should not impress you, since there are many details I left out (you only wanted win%).


For example, it is easy to have a high 95% win strategy that loses money, or that performs much worse profit wise than a 20% win strategy.

And win % - by itself - does not matter at all, really. The only real benefit is psychological.

I'd also completely ignore what a 1 month backtest tells you, also.

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rocketstock
Denver CO
 
 
Posts: 40 since Dec 2021
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kevinkdog View Post
95% really should not impress you, since there are many details I left out (you only wanted win%).


For example, it is easy to have a high 95% win strategy that loses money, or that performs much worse profit wise than a 20% win strategy.

And win % - by itself - does not matter at all, really. The only real benefit is psychological.

I'd also completely ignore what a 1 month backtest tells you, also.



Yes that completely makes sense. It's the profit that matters. Next stage task......

I am currently focusing just on entry and exit even it makes just a little profit...catching the near bottoms and near tops and reverse on bearish. On 3 min ES mini. I assumed your entry and exits were 95% accurate hence impressed.

Yes will run on open market after backtest. All that is pending.

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 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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rocketstock View Post
Yes that completely makes sense. It's the profit that matters. Next stage task......

I am currently focusing just on entry and exit even it makes just a little profit...catching the near bottoms and near tops and reverse on bearish. On 3 min ES mini. I assumed your entry and exits were 95% accurate hence impressed.

Yes will run on open market after backtest. All that is pending.


So I could fairly easily design a strategy that would win 19 trades in a day. 1 point profit each time.

That might sound impressive, but if it had 1 loss per day of 20 points... it would have 95% win percentage...

Before commission and any slippage costs:

19*50 - 1*1000 = -$50 Net loser

Not so impressive after all.

My advice: don't focus on win%, run more than 1 month backtest.

I did a webinar on futures.io earlier this year on this topic, for Elite members.

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  #10 (permalink)
rocketstock
Denver CO
 
 
Posts: 40 since Dec 2021
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kevinkdog View Post
So I could fairly easily design a strategy that would win 19 trades in a day. 1 point profit each time.

That might sound impressive, but if it had 1 loss per day of 20 points... it would have 95% win percentage...

Before commission and any slippage costs:

19*50 - 1*1000 = -$50 Net loser

Not so impressive after all.

My advice: don't focus on win%, run more than 1 month backtest.

I did a webinar on futures.io earlier this year on this topic, for Elite members.


Yes thanks. Once I get this running with entry and exit accuracy. I'll run it over 1 year.

So far I eventually plan to trail stop the startegy script (and some other scripts) to avoid that massive loss even if it's one or two trades. At this stage I'm just trying to see how accurately folks have developed scripts. 19/20 accurate entries and exits is great scripting. I'm nowhere close. Plus I'm also learning to code in NinjaTrader and translate my visual trading into scripts. So far more like 12/20 trades over a month or backtest. I can manage the loss trades. It's the indicators and levels scripts I am working on for 3 min ES mini. Increasing accuracy of bottom and tops. Many more steps ahead :-) Good idea on webinar.

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