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Win Rate %?


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Win Rate %?

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  #21 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
This one is interesting. Do You explain the strategies here on forum? Or only sell via courses?
P.S. For me it's just the purpose of interest to see what kinda setup/setups is picking 20% winrate strategy.

Think trend following with a relatively small stop. Gets stopped out quite a bit, but every once in a while catches a big trend.

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  #22 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
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kevinkdog View Post
Think trend following with a relatively small stop. Gets stopped out quite a bit, but every once in a while catches a big trend.

Yeah, thanks for your answer. Potentially i can tweak r/r within my strategy. I'm currently with 30% winrate and 3to1 r/r over large numbers with 1% risk as optimal f. Hmm,need to do some test, because winrate of 20% requires also max 0.5% risk with 1to5 avg. risk/rewad, that would be 0% risk of ruin over 1mio bets. And in both above cases expectancy is 0.2.
In the end it's all about preferences high/low winrate, over large numbers we are all oscillate within 0.2 Van Tharp expectancy.

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  #23 (permalink)
 AllSeeker 
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Right up to covid year I used to have similar thoughts, then I started understanding the subject little better, all thanks to people here.

So, I think you are at right place.

Also, you are very lucky that the people who responded were the right ones on this topic, @kevinkdog has quite a few books written which might help you in your journey.

Please note that I'm not affiliated with him in anyways, but as you can see for yourself that he is quite knowledgeable and helpful.

For the books search amazon for Kevin J Davey


Good luck!

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  #24 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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SomePsychoDude View Post
Yeah, thanks for your answer. Potentially i can tweak r/r within my strategy.

Why though?

.3*3-.7*1 = .2 Expectancy

(.3*3-.7*1)/1 = .2 Van Tharp Expectancy


If that is after accounting for slippage and commission, I'd say that is pretty good!

And I always fear changing an existing strategy to make it better, that usually ends in heartache...

I wish you continued success!

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  #25 (permalink)
 SomePsychoDude 
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kevinkdog View Post
Why though?

.3*3-.7*1 = .2 Expectancy

(.3*3-.7*1)/1 = .2 Van Tharp Expectancy


If that is after accounting for slippage and commission, I'd say that is pretty good!

Yeah that's after commission+swaps(I'm with cfd's currently) + slippage. Because I'm aiming always at 3.5 r/r (this is the most probable target within what I do).
I wanted to build as much failure as possible and 20% seems an option. But, thanks for putting the brain in the right place right away, with changing what works.

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  #26 (permalink)
 Tymbeline 
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rocketstock View Post
I am developing just one 3 minute chart trading strategy. Buy low near bottom sell near top on 3 min chart. Just bullish so far. Just getting my basic logic in so far. Programming is another problem. haha See attached report. This is backtest on real data.


Forgive me if I'm either stating the obvious or telling you something you've already fully taken into account, but I hope and trust you appreciate that backtesting any "buy-only strategy" with the backtesting period largely coinciding with what's already known (with hindsight) to have been a bull market is highly likely to demonstrate net-profitable outcomes.

Unfortunately, however, there's typically no overwhelming reason to suspect that it will continue to prove valuable moving forward (unless the market happens to remain in a long-term bullish trend while you're using the method).

I've used too many words, maybe? All I'm really saying is that you need to take great care when interpreting backtested results, because the live market to which you then apply your automated method may turn out to be materially different from how it behaved over the period of the backtest. Sometimes it's possible, to some extent, to allow for that by backtesting "a group of separate historical chunks" with the data taken from several periods of very different market behaviours.

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  #27 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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Tymbeline View Post
Forgive me if I'm either stating the obvious or telling you something you've already fully taken into account, but I hope and trust you appreciate that backtesting any "buy-only strategy" with the backtesting period largely coinciding with what's already known (with hindsight) to have been a bull market is highly likely to demonstrate net-profitable outcomes.

Unfortunately, however, there's typically no overwhelming reason to suspect that it will continue to prove valuable moving forward (unless the market happens to remain in a long-term bullish trend while you're using the method).

I've used too many words, maybe? All I'm really saying is that you need to take great care when interpreting backtested results, because the live market to which you then apply your automated method may turn out to be materially different from how it behaved over the period of the backtest. Sometimes it's possible, to some extent, to allow for that by backtesting "a group of separate historical chunks" with the data taken from several periods of very different market behaviours.

This post is a great explanation of one of the reasons backtests can be garbage.

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  #28 (permalink)
rocketstock
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Tymbeline View Post
Forgive me if I'm either stating the obvious or telling you something you've already fully taken into account, but I hope and trust you appreciate that backtesting any "buy-only strategy" with the backtesting period largely coinciding with what's already known (with hindsight) to have been a bull market is highly likely to demonstrate net-profitable outcomes.

Unfortunately, however, there's typically no overwhelming reason to suspect that it will continue to prove valuable moving forward (unless the market happens to remain in a long-term bullish trend while you're using the method).

I've used too many words, maybe? All I'm really saying is that you need to take great care when interpreting backtested results, because the live market to which you then apply your automated method may turn out to be materially different from how it behaved over the period of the backtest. Sometimes it's possible, to some extent, to allow for that by backtesting "a group of separate historical chunks" with the data taken from several periods of very different market behaviours.

backtest and market replay are completely different things. market replay is close to real time.

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  #29 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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rocketstock View Post
backtest and market replay are completely different things. market replay is close to real time.

Depends how you do the market replay test. It can be gamed just as easy as normal backtesting.

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  #30 (permalink)
rocketstock
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kevinkdog View Post
Depends how you do the market replay test. It can be gamed just as easy as normal backtesting.

honestly man i dont know what you are talking about. why would you game yourself.

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