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Now trying to do some calculations because I heard by accident a guy speaking on his cellphone regarding a trade on gold futures.
Lets say he said 500 contracts of gold futures (gc). How much money is needed to actually buy 500 contracts of gold futures without leverage?
500 X "gold-price" ? Current price is 1819, so it should be 1819 * 500 = 909500 usd
But this can not be correct? Since 1 contract gold future is 100 oz gold and 1819 is price for 1 oz?
(1819* 100) * 500 = 90950000 usd
Is this correct?
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
When you are long a futures contract, you did not actually buy any gold, or anything else for that matter. You enter into a contract to buy a specified amount of gold at a specified date. The margin you put up to be in the contract is in the nature of a security deposit or earnest money. It is required so that, when the position is marked to market at the end of every day, if the price has gone down, you have enough cash in your account to be able to cover the difference. That's it.
You can have any amount of margin you like in the account, so long as it meets the exchange minimum for an overnight trade, or the broker's minimum for a day trade.
So when does the price of gold come in? At settlement, of course, which is when you have to actually come up with the full amount of the purchase, and this will be a very large amount (which is why brokers will just routinely close you out before settlement, if you have not declared that you will settle, and put up the full amount to do so.) That's the only time that you actually pay for, and receive, any gold.
No one trades gold or anything else on the futures market using that kind of money. The thing to understand is that a futures contract is not an asset you are buying. It is a contract to buy at a later date, which is when you will need the purchase price.
Bob.
When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
Gold at CME right now requires $8,250 in initial margin, $7500 in maintenance margin.
So, if this guy really had 500 contracts, he would need at least $3,750,000 in his account to hold the position overnight. And that is the bare minimum.
Each tick in gold (0.1 movement) would make/lose $5000.
Gold normally moves around 20 points per day on average (today was 35 points). A 20 point move is $1,000,000 in a day.
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If gold was $1819/oz then yes 500 contracts would be approximately $91M NOTIONAL VALUE.
Agree with Kevin, the margin requirement for 500 contracts would be around $4M or barely 4% of the Notional Amount giving you approximately 20:1 leverage!
While everybody is thinking, "WOW that's a massive order" and "massive amounts of money", if you are working on an institutional trading desk something like that could easily be just another day in the office. Hedge funds regularly call up institutional market makers and get prices on very large orders like this. Producers are often hedging production with orders that have an extremely high notional value. Back when I was trading crude on an institutional desk the standard size for a Calendar Year Swap was 25000 bbls/month of 300,000 bbls for the year. That's like trading 300 CL futures in one trade. It wasn't rare for an oil producer to ask us for a price for 100,000 bbl/month on a 2 year or 3 year swap. That would be 2400-3600 contracts in a single trade. I know that's an oil example not a gold one but I suspect gold works similarly.