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I have developed a holy grail


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I have developed a holy grail

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  #1 (permalink)
 nites 
Belgrade, Serbia
 
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2021

Hello,

If you are asking yourself if title is clickbait - yes it is. I want to get many different opinions to ideas and models I'm about to share.

This is not and advertisement and tools shown are not commercially available.
This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present.

Short story - been trading for about 5 years, lot of ups and downs, certainly more downs than ups.
Blown few accounts as usual, decided to stop gambling and proceed to build hundreds of systems and indicators. In the beginning, nothing worked, but through lot of work and time, today I can differentiate what works and what doesn't really quickly.

I have built a system, strategy, model or however you want to call it that I believe it is a real holy grail. I call it holy grail from mechanical/edge trading point of view. Holy grail for me is combination of edge/system, psychological fortitude and discipline which was hardest to obtain for me.

Why this model is un - grazed potential for edges.

- It is based on physics, market is processed using lot of data to find stable inefficiencies
- Works on every market, every time frame
- Robust, you can apply it to any market in any year in time. It will show you same results in
1950's and today.
- Possible adaptive features, most of the time it is not necessary, but it can provide additional
value in certain periods

I'm sharing with you picture of one out of three components applied to DJI30.
This is trend component, usually I use it to estimate trend, and trade in direction it is showing.



As you can see, it displays the market movement with near perfection(it is not always perfect, it can fail for short periods of time). Every trade taken would've been extremely profitable.

I wonder if you find this interesting and if it can bring any value to you.
Please give me your questions, doubts, comments. I'm eager to any productive discussion.

Thanks
Nick


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  #2 (permalink)
 Koepisch 
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nites View Post
As you can see, it displays the market movement with near perfection(it is not always perfect, it can fail for short periods of time). Every trade taken would've been extremely profitable.

Sorry, i can't see anything valuable so far. If you mention trades, you have to add the entry- and exit rules we should apply to that study. Then everybody can see what you see.

Regards, Koepisch

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  #3 (permalink)
 tr8er 
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If I watch your chart, I cannot see anything you call "holy grail", special in the middle of the chart I see a divergence which would kill your account. I would say with any indicator/oscillator you will see a similar picture.

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  #4 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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nites View Post
Hello,

If you are asking yourself if title is clickbait - yes it is. I want to get many different opinions to ideas and models I'm about to share.

This is not and advertisement and tools shown are not commercially available.
This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present.
...

I have built a system, strategy, model or however you want to call it that I believe it is a real holy grail. I call it holy grail from mechanical/edge trading point of view. Holy grail for me is combination of edge/system, psychological fortitude and discipline which was hardest to obtain for me.

...

As you can see, it displays the market movement with near perfection(it is not always perfect, it can fail for short periods of time). Every trade taken would've been extremely profitable.

I wonder if you find this interesting and if it can bring any value to you.
Please give me your questions, doubts, comments. I'm eager to any productive discussion.

Thanks
Nick


Koepisch View Post
Sorry, i can't see anything valuable so far. If you mention trades, you have to add the entry- and exit rules we should apply to that study. Then everybody can see what you see.

Regards, Koepisch


tr8er View Post
If I watch your chart, I cannot see anything you call "holy grail", special in the middle of the chart I see a divergence which would kill your account. I would say with any indicator/oscillator you will see a similar picture.

Since you ask for comments, you have said that this oscillator is one of three components of your system, which is good because it is not remarkable in itself at all. Sorry.

You've got a nice smooth oscillator that tracks the short-term movements, with a bit of a lag, and abstracts them out from the overall trend. There are a lot of these out there. If all you do is trade this oscillator's ups and downs, you will have some significant losses when the larger trend goes against you. This is the usual issue with oscillators, and this one is not unusual in this respect.

As has been pointed out, there is no system without entries and exits, and I would add loss control. You might have a worthwhile indicator or set of indicators, but that doesn't make a holy grail.

Sorry to be sort of strong in my comments, but when you offer something as a solution to everyone's trading problems by calling it a "holy grail," you invite close scrutiny.

As to discussions, if this is all you say it is, then you can get a terrific discussion going by opening a trading journal and entering real trades using it, tracking your performance and giving people something to see besides a static chart with indicators on it. A holy grail would obviously make you serious money quickly, and that would satisfy any doubters also.

--------------------

One more thing, and I hate to bring this up but you also do raise the question by your terminology, whether intentionally or not. You have said that this is not a commercial product and you are not selling anything. You have also used a provocative thread title and have said "This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present."

You should understand that there is no faster way to be banned than to be offering a product for sale here. I am taking you at your word that you are not, but I wanted to raise the point, just in case.

So by all means continue with your discussion, and if you want to show what your tools can do, open a trade journal and show some real-time trades, or present it in whatever other way you prefer, but just keep this in mind.

We have seen many "holy grails," after all.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #5 (permalink)
 nites 
Belgrade, Serbia
 
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2021

Hello gents,

Thank you for your comments.


bobwest View Post
Since you ask for comments, you have said that this oscillator is one of three components of your system, which is good because it is not remarkable in itself at all. Sorry.

You've got a nice smooth oscillator that tracks the short-term movements, with a bit of a lag, and abstracts them out from the overall trend. There are a lot of these out there. If all you do is trade this oscillator's ups and downs, you will have some significant losses when the larger trend goes against you. This is the usual issue with oscillators, and this one is not unusual in this respect.

I agree with your points, this is why this oscillator with certain frequency is used to estimate and predict future trends.

But comparing this tool with lot of others out there is just bonkers, please show me single oscillator that tracks market with this precision and amount of lag. Maybe calling it holy grail is a bit too much(it really depends what is your definition of holy grail), but it is the among best out there and it certainly puts it in HG category, per my point of view.


bobwest View Post

As has been pointed out, there is no system without entries and exits, and I would add loss control. You might have a worthwhile indicator or set of indicators, but that doesn't make a holy grail.

Sorry to be sort of strong in my comments, but when you offer something as a solution to everyone's trading problems by calling it a "holy grail," you invite close scrutiny.

I have attached chart of the same timespan for DJI30 with all trades taken.
Second component of the system is the same oscillator but it is fully adaptable with every new bar. This component is more suitable for entries, because the drawdown will be significantly smaller if price goes the other way.

Rules for entries and exits are very simple:

1. Buys are sells are executed when a smaller components crosses in directions of trend component.
2. Trades can be also taken when a smaller component crosses 0 line.

This trades produced ~2700 points with 16 W and 2 L.


trades


trades2


trades3


trades4



It is discretionary mechanical system. My ideas is to show with how seemingly simple oscillator and few rules, extremely profitable trades can be taken. Please note, that creating and mining the data for this filter is complex.

--------------------

bobwest View Post

One more thing, and I hate to bring this up but you also do raise the question by your terminology, whether intentionally or not. You have said that this is not a commercial product and you are not selling anything. You have also used a provocative thread title and have said "This doesn't mean it won't be in the future if value to help other traders is present."

You should understand that there is no faster way to be banned than to be offering a product for sale here. I am taking you at your word that you are not, but I wanted to raise the point, just in case.

So by all means continue with your discussion, and if you want to show what your tools can do, open a trade journal and show some real-time trades, or present it in whatever other way you prefer, but just keep this in mind.

We have seen many "holy grails," after all.

Bob.

My idea for this thread is to make community case study.

I'm glad you wrote "We have seen many "holy grails," after all.".
Everyday we are all getting pitched by superior and profitable trading systems, indicators, market profile, methods, etc. But in reality nothing works and it doesn't give you any kind of edge.

It would make me happy to change that if it is possible. If people here can see more value in something I can offer, than any other commercial or free stuff available, why wouldn't make it commercial?

Thank you for understanding.

 
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  #6 (permalink)
 AllSeeker 
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When I read claims of its "better than" or more "valuable than other". It will require you to post a very a detailed backtest and a very real live trade record of at least couple of quarters. (Some will require years, but I'm nice)


Also, I think most of us have seen similar kind of threads before and have a very fair idea of where this will go, so lets hope for surprise.

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  #7 (permalink)
 TWDsje   is a Vendor
 
 
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So the part I find funny is this part


nites View Post
decided to stop gambling and proceed to build hundreds of systems and indicators. In the beginning, nothing worked, but through lot of work and time, today I can differentiate what works and what doesn't really quickly.

The only way to differentiate what works and what doesn't is with effective testing and recording of trades. Something that if done right isn't exactly quick. So why doesn't he post any back tested results or live results? Someone that is as knowledgeable as this poster claims would certainly know that the starting point for proving such a claim would be showing the strategy's performance. Yet he doesn't provide any such thing.

I can only conclude that this poster doesn't know as much as they think they do.

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  #8 (permalink)
 nites 
Belgrade, Serbia
 
 
Posts: 21 since Jul 2021


TWDsje View Post
So the part I find funny is this part







The only way to differentiate what works and what doesn't is with effective testing and recording of trades. Something that if done right isn't exactly quick. So why doesn't he post any back tested results or live results? Someone that is as knowledgeable as this poster claims would certainly know that the starting point for proving such a claim would be showing the strategy's performance. Yet he doesn't provide any such thing.



I can only conclude that this poster doesn't know as much as they think they do.

This is exactly why I don't do algorithmic backrest.
It can be skewed.
Only manual and forward test.

You can see trades taken on the chart, I can do that for past 1 year or whatever would make you happy.

That is a way to record trades, without a chance of manipulating results. Hope this helps.









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  #9 (permalink)
 kevinkdog   is a Vendor
 
 
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nites View Post
This is exactly why I don't do algorithmic backrest.
It can be skewed.
Only manual and forward test.

You can see trades taken on the chart, I can do that for past 1 year or whatever would make you happy.

That is a way to record trades, without a chance of manipulating results. Hope this helps.

I find it much easier to "skew" a manual backtest than a algorithmic backtest.

Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "skewed?" How can an algo backtest be skewed?



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I find it much easier to "skew" a manual backtest than an algorithmic backtest.

Maybe I don't understand what you mean by "skewed?" How can an algo backtest be skewed?

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  #10 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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nites View Post
This trades produced ~2700 points with 16 W and 2 L.

...

My idea for this thread is to make community case study.

...

If people here can see more value in something I can offer, than any other commercial or free stuff available, why wouldn't make it commercial?

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