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I have developed a holy grail


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I have developed a holy grail

  #31 (permalink)
lightsun47
Toronto, Canada
 
Posts: 357 since May 2018
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nites View Post
The market is NOT a stationary process, which means that all tools based on linear algebra 95% traders use, stuff like MA, CCI, RSI or support/resistance, etc DOESN'T work.


Solution to this is to ditch all you've been told. And search for theory and application in physics that can model characteristics of the market I mentioned above.

Time for me to make an entry in this thread.

1. The floor pivot levels aka MAJOR Support / Resistance levels WORK 95% of the time for me. How? Example: If price breaks Support level 1 going short, it WILL go to test Support level 2, where my exit / stop be placed and trailed until Support level 2 going short. If it breaks Resistance level 2 going long, it WILL go to test Resistance level 3 and my exit / stop be placed and trailed until Resistance level 2 going long.

2. The EMAs I use for shorter movements / scalping, STILL work to this day acting as a strong support / resistance, hence thereby, acting as a moving / dynamic support / resistance. I EXACTLY know how the price will behave once it tells me the EMA there has started to act as a support / resistance when the price is not breaking those lines AKA telling me when to enter and when to stay away / not enter my trades.

These are based on years of experience and observation. And therefore, very safe to say they do help me getting green everyday. Of course, there are red days like ANY other business out there (even Amazon), but it depends on you when to close your losers to stay in the game.


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  #32 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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nites View Post

There might be differences in various markets, but all markets are, consider this very important:

Market is non - Gaussian and non - linear process.
The market is NOT a stationary process, which means that all tools based on linear algebra 95% traders use, stuff like MA, CCI, RSI or support/resistance, etc DOESN'T work.


Solution to this is to ditch all you've been told. And search for theory and application in physics that can model characteristics of the market I mentioned above.

I think you've overstated your case. Many of the people who have read and commented on your thread are making money using things other than what you mention, including some of the things you are sure "DOESN'T" work.

Many things work, actually. If you haven't found that some do, that's understandable because how they are used in different hands sometimes makes all the difference. Many things don't work also.

But after reading trading journals here for some years now, I have been surprised again and again by what can work, in the proper hands. Just eyeballing a chart and drawing a few lines and levels can work well and consistently for some. How you understand what is going on in the market is more important than the specific tools you use to trade it. Their value is actually secondary to your understanding.

If you've found something that works well for you, then power to you and I hope you have success with it. But you can't draw absolute conclusions for everyone. You can only know your own experience, after all.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #33 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
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nites View Post
Hi Rahul, thank you, it is much appreciated.

I don't have enough capital to trade comfortably with low drawdowns. I've traded with many online prop firms, earned some additional income, but never had time and discipline to do it day after day (sincerely hope I will improve this in the future).

1. Not really, maybe a fraction, I was genuinely interested what others traders have to say, good or bad. I'm always looking for new improvements, models and ideas, sometimes forums can provide useful insights.

2. No, I don't have guts to trade other people money. I have some insights about Jim Simmons RenTec strategy models, but it exceeds my brain capabilities by light years. There is a reason his company employs some of the brightest minds and PhD's in engineering and signal processing.

3. No, this was not my plan before starting the thread. Honestly, I thought about selling it many times through the years, but never could break on it and start commercial company. It would make me immensely happy that someone could earn a living, or transform their trading by something I can offer.
So final answer: at this moment, no, not planning to sell it.

I hope my answers met some of your expectations. Let me know your thoughts or advice about it.
Thank you.

Good to read this post.

Some statement of intent like this is what I have been looking for. So long as there is no intent to market this to the members here, you are welcome to discuss or display or do anything else with your system on the forum.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #34 (permalink)
 nites 
Belgrade, Serbia
 
Posts: 25 since Jul 2021


lightsun47 View Post
Time for me to make an entry in this thread.

1. The floor pivot levels aka MAJOR Support / Resistance levels WORK 95% of the time for me. How? Example: If price breaks Support level 1 going short, it WILL go to test Support level 2, where my exit / stop be placed and trailed until Support level 2 going short. If it breaks Resistance level 2 going long, it WILL go to test Resistance level 3 and my exit / stop be placed and trailed until Resistance level 2 going long.

2. The EMAs I use for shorter movements / scalping, STILL work to this day acting as a strong support / resistance, hence thereby, acting as a moving / dynamic support / resistance. I EXACTLY know how the price will behave once it tells me the EMA there has started to act as a support / resistance when the price is not breaking those lines AKA telling me when to enter and when to stay away / not enter my trades.

These are based on years of experience and observation. And therefore, very safe to say they do help me getting green everyday. Of course, there are red days like ANY other business out there (even Amazon), but it depends on you when to close your losers to stay in the game.

It is quite interesting that someone claims Support / Resistance work 95% of time. Everyone sees it different, but most of the time there is no any support neither resistance.

Show me your chart for the same period that I showed mine, display your trades based on your S/R and EMA methodology, then we can talk about it further. But this might be a problem for you, because S/R only works after the fact.

I will refer to my previous post about characteristics of the market. Please read it carefully.

Market is non - Gaussian, non - linear process. S/R, EMA is constructed used linear algebra, therefore it DOESN'T give you any kind of edge in the market. This is a fact, if you believe otherwise, you might as well believe in unicorns.

  #35 (permalink)
 jmont1 
New York, NY
 
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Wasted 2 day following this post with virtually no benefit. And skeptical will ever have valuable HG benefit.

Please stop posting till you are going to post your system which likely will take a single descriptive comprehensive and attachment(s) included post.

JUST DO IT

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  #36 (permalink)
lightsun47
Toronto, Canada
 
Posts: 357 since May 2018
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Sure I can provide my charts and the levels within them, but let me ask you this which I should have asked you already:

With your title 'I have developed a holy grail', are you saying you have succeeded in creating something which works ONE HUNDRED PERCENT FLAWLESSLY? Because the word holy grail means EXACTLY THAT.

Sent using the NexusFi mobile app

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  #37 (permalink)
 
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 ShadowFox 
CO/USA
 
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nites View Post
It is quite interesting that someone claims Support / Resistance work 95% of time. Everyone sees it different, but most of the time there is no any support neither resistance.



Show me your chart for the same period that I showed mine, display your trades based on your S/R and EMA methodology, then we can talk about it further. But this might be a problem for you, because S/R only works after the fact.



I will refer to my previous post about characteristics of the market. Please read it carefully.



Market is non - Gaussian, non - linear process. S/R, EMA is constructed used linear algebra, therefore it DOESN'T give you any kind of edge in the market. This is a fact, if you believe otherwise, you might as well believe in unicorns.

Be careful making claims like this when you may not know what you are talking about. I am sure you have done your research on what works or doesn't work for you, but you must know that these things do work for others. You have had a rough time pitching the idea already, then you claim everything that everyone here is doing is wrong. It will spiral from here unless you change your approach.

We cannot really comment on the system unless we know more about it. You don't seem interested in that, and I don't blame you at all. If I could produce that equity curve consistently across multiple markets I would be trading it full time and no one would know anything about it.

It sounds like you don't have the funds or the time to trade it. I don't know how intensive it is to parse the data but if you can fully automate it I would suggest running it on a micro contract and let it run unattended. Sounds like you can comfortably trade it on margin plus 1200 or so drawdown potential.

It may be a good idea to start the system on a drawdown, I did this with my futures system and it worked flawlessly. Just gives you more of a chance of not getting wiped with low capital in the beginning.

As far as this forum is concerned, I suggest starting a trading journal solely to hold yourself accountable for the trades and the system. Post updates as often as you need to stay accountable. Share as much or as little as you like.

It sounds like this thread is a waste of all of our time though as you don't plan to trade it or share anything about it, then bash what everyone else is doing. There is nothing to talk about. Good luck with your system, looking forward to hearing your success story!

Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal
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  #38 (permalink)
 
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 ShadowFox 
CO/USA
 
Experience: Intermediate
Platform: TradeStation, Multicharts
Trading: Stocks, Futures
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FYI, this is my system on NQ (I don't trade YM) over the same time period trading 5 contracts doing all of the things you say do not work. From the red dot are real time trades. Not saying mine is better than yours just saying don't make sweeping statements that "linear algebra doesn't work".

I know there are many others on the site that can show the same.


Visit my NexusFi Trade Journal
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  #39 (permalink)
 
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 bobwest 
Western Florida
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nites View Post
Market is non - Gaussian, non - linear process. S/R, EMA is constructed used linear algebra, therefore it DOESN'T give you any kind of edge in the market. This is a fact, if you believe otherwise, you might as well believe in unicorns.

So everyone else is wrong, even though you don't know them or how they trade, and no one can make money in the markets but you, even though you don't trade your system and you don't make money with it.

I do hope you are successful when you start trading, as I hope everyone is. And for all I know, you could be more right than everyone else. But you are not the only one who is right, and all others are not always completely wrong. And some of them trade, even.

Bob.

When one door closes, another opens.
-- Cervantes, Don Quixote
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  #40 (permalink)
 nites 
Belgrade, Serbia
 
Posts: 25 since Jul 2021



bobwest View Post
So everyone else is wrong, even though you don't know them or how they trade, and no one can make money in the markets but you, even though you don't trade your system and you don't make money with it.

I do hope you are successful when you start trading, as I hope everyone is. And for all I know, you could be more right than everyone else. But you are not the only one who is right, and all others are not always completely wrong. And some of them trade, even.

Bob.

I'm not sure if you read my posts, seems you just wanted to know if I will try to sell my system here. If you find me selling system here, ban me.

Regarding your comments on stuff I shared, you didn't make any logical assumptions based on anything, just "I believe that, I believe this", no one cares what you believe. The so called assumptions I made on market characteristics, it's not something I assumed whether, it is confirmed fact, please google it if you don't believe me.

Here is study about non - stationarity and stationarity of market. Beside this one, you have dozen studies on the same topic.

shorturl.at/pqzDJ

The forecasts based on our nonstationary unconditional modeling were found to be superior to those obtained in a
stationary long-memory framework and to those based on a stationary
Garch(1,1) data-generating process


Where on earth did you read that I don't trade at all? I said I don't have enough capital to trade comfortably with low drawdowns, but I've traded with prop firms, and mentioned reason why I didn't continue.


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Last Updated on July 12, 2021


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