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If you needed one-on-one help with any trading issue, how much would you pay?


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If you needed one-on-one help with any trading issue, how much would you pay?

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  #1 (permalink)
 Big Mike 
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Hi guys,

If you needed one-on-one help with any trading issue, how much would you pay?

Total votes: 360
 


This poll is designed to ask people about one-on-one help they may need (or have needed in the past) with their trading. I want to better understand the needs of the community.

Please vote & discuss!

Mike

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  #2 (permalink)
 Tiffsgreta 
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Big Mike View Post
Hi guys,



This poll is designed to ask people about one-on-one help they may need (or have needed in the past) with their trading. I want to better understand the needs of the community.

Please vote & discuss!

Mike

I am very new to trading, in fact have only traded my broker's recommendations and she of course puts them in. If I could dream up anything it would be for someone to show me a simple indicator and point out where i could enter and exit the trade. People talk a lot about "finding their edge" and I'd just like to be able to put in a trade on my own. I have tried the CME simulator and I have learned it is hard to trade, :-) indicators or not. I feel like I am guessing. A guide would be great.

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  #3 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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I am too obstinate to ask for help.

This may not be exactly a good thing....

Bob.

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  #4 (permalink)
 Salao 
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Anecdotally...I don't think I have read, or heard, of anyone paying for one-on-one help and it actually leading to sustained success. Mostly it seems to lead to hard feelings on the part of the payee. I sort of like the idea of handing someone some cash and having them show me how to shore up my trading issues. I like the simplicity of that. But I think my skepticism will always prevent me from going down that road. For my money, the tried-and-true method of bombing and putting the pieces back together again seems like the only way to go.

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  #5 (permalink)
 bobwest 
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Salao View Post
Anecdotally...I don't think I have read, or heard, of anyone paying for one-on-one help and it actually leading to sustained success. Mostly it seems to lead to hard feelings on the part of the payee. I sort of like the idea of handing someone some cash and having them show me how to shore up my trading issues. I like the simplicity of that. But I think my skepticism will always prevent me from going down that road. For my money, the tried-and-true method of bombing and putting the pieces back together again seems like the only way to go.

I agree. It's also the only way I know....

I think that someone who is successful has had to work within themselves to deal with their own difficulties in trading. I don't really think this can be taught to someone else, who will inevitably have their own issues, which will not be exactly the same as the teacher's were. So while the teacher can teach the intellectualized version of his trading, he may not (and probably will not) be able to teach how he overcame his own obstacles in trading, since his obstacles and anyone else's obstacles will be different.

This is all aside from the question of whether the teacher is really any good at what he's supposedly teaching, which is a matter of whether he is genuine. Many are not.

I have learned a ton of things from others, and often not from someone with some special knowledge either -- but I have never found something that I could just put in place as it was taught and had it work. Most of what I have learned from others has been when they said or did something that illuminated the shared experience of traders, what we all go through.

So I am skeptical of seeking paid (or even free) help. It may not always be a bad idea, but it doesn't suit me very well, and I don't really believe in it.

Bob.

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  #6 (permalink)
 fivewhy 
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Tiffsgreta View Post
If I could dream up anything it would be for someone to show me a simple indicator and point out where i could enter and exit the trade. ... A guide would be great.

You come across as a very nice person.

.....a mentor can be great or not-so-great, but a guide will always lead you astray.

You really do have to find your own way, at some level. No one else has the answers. Only you do.

Having said that, I could use someone constantly holding up a mirror to me. Providing reflection.

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  #7 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Replied No. To me this poll is as much a "Can you find somebody worth paying?" as it is "Would you pay them?". Since I think the answer to this first question is generally no, the second part became moot.

Saying all of that I have taken @kevinkdog course and it was money I have no regrets spending. So maybe I shouldn't have responded no.

I am lucky that if trading wasn't my career it would be my #1 hobby. In reality it is my career and my #1 hobby. So I spend a lot of money and time and trading not just for the financial rewards, but also for the enjoyment (I restrained from using entertainment) I get from the time I spend. (I genuinely get a kick out of running risk of ruin monte carlo simulations on my laptop in the evenings, regardless as to whether it impacts my actual trading.)

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  #8 (permalink)
 snax 
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Some of the most painful times in trading also happen to be the moments where you learn something crucial about yourself or the market. No one can force these awakenings on you. There are of course those who are of great help along the way, but in my opinion this help is usually in the form of expanding your awareness or seeing things in a different light. It is up to you to take that help and run with it.


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  #9 (permalink)
 TWDsje   is a Vendor
 
 
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Collaboration in small groups is valuable, but what passes or help or mentoring around the retail industry is a complete waste. I would require a significant amount of empirical evidence on the efficacy of their methods before I paid for any such service.

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 Big Mike 
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Perhaps I need to clarify...

I did not mean for coaching or "how to make money". I was talking about people that need help first time setting up their platform, charts, etc. People that want custom indicators created. This kind of thing.

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  #11 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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Big Mike View Post
Perhaps I need to clarify...

I did not mean for coaching or "how to make money". I was talking about people that need help first time setting up their platform, charts, etc. People that want custom indicators created. This kind of thing.

The answer to that is yes. If its something I don't want to do, and don't think I will learn from doing, or that I think somebody else will do a better job, then yes, my time is valuable.

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 Tiffsgreta 
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fivewhy View Post
You come across as a very nice person.

.....a mentor can be great or not-so-great, but a guide will always lead you astray.

You really do have to find your own way, at some level. No one else has the answers. Only you do.

Having said that, I could use someone constantly holding up a mirror to me. Providing reflection.

Thanks for the kind words @fivewhy! I must say that I know deep down that is the answer. I could probably benefit from a mirror too. Just to "say no" to the angst and get on with the business at hand

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 fivewhy 
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SMCJB View Post
I genuinely get a kick out of running risk of ruin monte carlo simulations on my laptop in the evenings.....

Bro, bro, bro, brooooooo....you're totally weird. But I like it. 🤣


Tiffsgreta View Post
Just to "say no" to the angst and get on with the business at hand

oh I hear you on that!

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 SMCJB 
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fivewhy View Post

SMCJB
I genuinely get a kick out of running risk of ruin monte carlo simulations on my laptop in the evenings.....

Bro, bro, bro, brooooooo....you're totally weird. But I like it. 🤣

As I said, or implied, its a passion

Currently running monte carlo simulations of ulcer index vs return/drawdown.

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  #15 (permalink)
goodoboy
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Big Mike View Post
Hi guys,



This poll is designed to ask people about one-on-one help they may need (or have needed in the past) with their trading. I want to better understand the needs of the community.

Please vote & discuss!

Mike

Thanks for the Poll.

I would pay money to any day trader who will provide at minimum of 1 year broker documentation that shows he/she makes money trading. Along with 1 month of live watching him/her trade. I will never spend money learning from anyone who is not making money and who can not prove it. Period.

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 MrTrader 
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goodoboy View Post
Thanks for the Poll.

I would pay money to any day trader who will provide at minimum of 1 year broker documentation that shows he/she makes money trading. Along with 1 month of live watching him/her trade. I will never spend money learning from anyone who is not making money and who can not prove it. Period.

I guess I would pay too, I second that.

BUT, hey!
Why in the world someone who fills the requisites above would bother diving into something like this?
I would not, for sure.

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 snax 
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SMCJB View Post
As I said, or implied, its a passion

Currently running monte carlo simulations of ulcer index vs return/drawdown.

@SMCJB do you use any particular tools for this? Do you code your own simulations? Have you learned a lot from them? The reason I ask is because I could see getting into this kind of thing, once I've gotten my current (slow, manual, bar-by-bar) research to a certain level.

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  #18 (permalink)
 vmodus 
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SMCJB View Post
Replied No. To me this poll is as much a "Can you find somebody worth paying?" as it is "Would you pay them?". Since I think the answer to this first question is generally no, the second part became moot.

Saying all of that I have taken @kevinkdog course and it was money I have no regrets spending. So maybe I shouldn't have responded no.

I am lucky that if trading wasn't my career it would be my #1 hobby. In reality it is my career and my #1 hobby. So I spend a lot of money and time and trading not just for the financial rewards, but also for the enjoyment (I restrained from using entertainment) I get from the time I spend. (I genuinely get a kick out of running risk of ruin monte carlo simulations on my laptop in the evenings, regardless as to whether it impacts my actual trading.)

I think the question is really about, would you hire someone to help with an issue, i.e. as a consultant? Would you hire @kevinkdog on a one-to-one basis? I might, it would be probably be worth it to solve a problem or two, knowing what I know now.

Yeah, I get a kick out of running Monte Carlo simulations, too.

~vmodus

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  #19 (permalink)
 Arch 
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You can hire a sports psychologist anywhere from $0 to $500+ per session. So, if you're looking for help, try finding a sports psychologist with a specialty in trading.

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 vmodus 
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I would pay money to solve one problem I currently have that I do not have time to learn to solve myself. Given the level of effort, it could be a over $1000.

** Edit **
I should clarify.... the problem I have is highly technical and related to automated/system trading, so I have paid, would pay, and may pay in the future for help solving a technical problem that is beyond my capabilities. Private coaching, etc. is not for me, so no, I would not pay.
********

@snax , I use Equity Monaco from TickQuest for Monte Carlo analysis, but I cannot find a download link for you. I am guessing @SMCJB probably uses @kevinkdog 's free Excel tool, which I do as well. You can download here: https://kjtradingsystems.com/calculators.html. It is easy to use and effective.

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  #21 (permalink)
 snax 
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vmodus View Post
I would pay money to solve one problem I currently have that I do not have time to learn to solve myself. Given the level of effort, it could be a over $1000.


@snax , I use Equity Monaco from TickQuest for Monte Carlo analysis, but I cannot find a download link for you. I am guessing @SMCJB probably uses @kevinkdog 's free Excel tool, which I do as well. You can download here: https://kjtradingsystems.com/calculators.html. It is easy to use and effective.


Thank you so much, @vmodus! I will definitely take a look!


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 myrrdin 
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The question is difficult to answer.

On the one hand, I do not have a problem to pay $1000 for a valuable piece of advice, that improves the performance of my account. The amount you are willing to pay is probably a function of the account size.

On the other hand, I trade successfully for many years, and there are not many occasions where I need help.

Many successful traders give their advice free of charge. They make enough money from trading, and are not interested in the administrative work in relation to receiving money for advice. This forum is an excellent example.

Best regards, Myrrdin

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AndyTheChicken
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We are surrounded by enterprises that are geared to making us part with our money; the successful ones are expert in it. The only reason I have enough savings to think about trading (I have investments but haven't started 'trading' yet) is because I developed a strong resistance* to this urge. So my answer is 'no', I wouldn't pay money for any kind of advice; if I couldn't find it on the Internet, I would assume it wasn't possible and move on.
* I don't know how to turn off the technical analysis pop-up**, sorry.
** Oh dear, there's another one.

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yochuresfio
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I would pay a percent of my profits for a limited time. This wasn't a survey option.
Skin in the game!
If you're believe in yourself as a teacher and in the content you're teaching, you should love this.

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 JoeyZaza 
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Salao View Post
Anecdotally...I don't think I have read, or heard, of anyone paying for one-on-one help and it actually leading to sustained success. Mostly it seems to lead to hard feelings on the part of the payee. I sort of like the idea of handing someone some cash and having them show me how to shore up my trading issues. I like the simplicity of that. But I think my skepticism will always prevent me from going down that road. For my money, the tried-and-true method of bombing and putting the pieces back together again seems like the only way to go.

Yes I agree that there is the "cost of tuition" with trading and that most of us (perhaps all) of us are extremely--to a fault--independently minded. Which means we have a burning desire to do this by ourselves and make it. We really have to be completely honest with ourselves and address how much that tuition has cost us and can that be reduced by paying to learn the right way. And I mean learn not only our edge but more importantly learn about ourselves--aka pay for therapy.

Having gone through this entire process myself with some success and a lot of losses (you have seen my journal I am still trying to improve and get consistency). I see value in paying for knowledge and services. A lot are scams etc. so be careful here (caveat emptor).

For me i see value in the following to spend $ on rather than purely try and blow it approach:

1. books, research materials to find ones edge.
2. Personal time (there is a cost there) invested to find ones edge
3. Consulting by a professional trader to work through the chaff and prior experience. This can include prop trading firms etc. who take a % of profit for training/teaching approaches and market behavior that works (again careful here)
4. Therapy with someone with proven experience dealing with traders. A good psychiatrist can work wonders however I believe they also need to have the perspective of a trader or what traders deal with.

Just my .02 I hope it helps.

Cheers,
JZ

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  #26 (permalink)
 xylphonse 
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I answered no and then I saw the clarification on the poll about help on technical or other problems. Regardless my no was based on the fact that I had done this before, spending over 10k and have not seen any returns. Maybe it has told me why I shouldn’t trade in certain ways but I am still in the deep after 1.5 years of trading. Still going but I’m with those that say that you just need to go at it on your own and learn what is keeping you profitable.

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 SMCJB 
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snax View Post
@SMCJB do you use any particular tools for this? Do you code your own simulations? Have you learned a lot from them? The reason I ask is because I could see getting into this kind of thing, once I've gotten my current (slow, manual, bar-by-bar) research to a certain level.

I'm reasonably competent with VBA and R so use both. The advantage with R over Excel is if you want to perform say 1,000,000 simulations rather than 10,000. But generally excel is so much quicker to prototype I normally use that.

Monte-Carlo has a 'complex aura' associated with it. In reality it's just generating a bunch of random numbers and using those numbers to generate a bunch of random paths. It's very easy to do in excel, without even using VBA. So when I'm doing quick projects that's often what I do. With the old excel this was limiting because of the sheet size limitations but with the newer excel this is no longer a problem. So for example lets say I want to do 10000 simulations of 10 trades. First I generate 100,000 random numbers, in a 10000 rows x 10 columns grid. Normally I then 'copy paste values only' into a grid next to it, so the numbers aren't continually changing. Next I'll convert each of those random numbers into a trade (again 10000x10 grid), either buy calling a distribution function or by looking up actual trades from a list based upon the random number. Then you build your 10000 equity curves, starting equity+trade1+trade2 etc. Then you perform whatever calculation want. Literally in a few mins you have a custom built monte carlo. Normally takes longer to create pretty charts to show the results than it does to perform the calculation. Using a similar methodology very quick to generate price series which can then be used to calculate the values of options, including exotics that you couldn't evaluate with a closed form solution. Don't do much of the latter any more but in previous lives I did.

vmodus View Post
@snax , I use Equity Monaco from TickQuest for Monte Carlo analysis, but I cannot find a download link for you. I am guessing @SMCJB probably uses @kevinkdog 's free Excel tool, which I do as well. You can download here: https://kjtradingsystems.com/calculators.html. It is easy to use and effective.

Kevin's tool is great and pretty much idiot proof. If you can open Excel and copy in a list of trade results, you can use it. Saying that one of the first things I did after taking Kevin's course was to rewrite his monte-carlo spreadsheet. Kevin's spreadsheet, performs a complete monte-carlo for every starting equity level. The biggest change I made was to only perform a single monte-carlo analysis but calculate performance for every starting equity level based upon that. The results table is then a lot smoother and less prone to outliers effecting a single starting equity level. I also changed the code so that it stored all the results and performed all the calculations in arrays in VBA rather than have to write them to excel. This allows me to quickly add additional performance metric calculations by just adding columns to the arrays to track whatever I want.

While we perform monte-carlo simulations to model equity curves, and model risk of ruin probabilities, return and drawdown distributions why do we stop there? Each one of those simulations has a different Profit Factor, Win Ratio, Sharpe Ratio, Ulcer Ratio etc etc. I'm currently working on a monte carlo that calculates a large number of these of statistics, and shows the distribution for each. I'm hoping that this is more informative than looking at a single number, based upon the actual backtest.

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  #28 (permalink)
 snax 
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SMCJB View Post
I'm reasonably competent with VBA and R so use both. The advantage with R over Excel is if you want to perform say 1,000,000 simulations rather than 10,000. But generally excel is so much quicker to prototype I normally use that.

Monte-Carlo has a 'complex aura' associated with it. In reality it's just generating a bunch of random numbers and using those numbers to generate a bunch of random paths. It's very easy to do in excel, without even using VBA. So when I'm doing quick projects that's often what I do. With the old excel this was limiting because of the sheet size limitations but with the newer excel this is no longer a problem. So for example lets say I want to do 10000 simulations of 10 trades. First I generate 100,000 random numbers, in a 10000 rows x 10 columns grid. Normally I then 'copy paste values only' into a grid next to it, so the numbers aren't continually changing. Next I'll convert each of those random numbers into a trade (again 10000x10 grid), either buy calling a distribution function or by looking up actual trades from a list based upon the random number. Then you build your 10000 equity curves, starting equity+trade1+trade2 etc. Then you perform whatever calculation want. Literally in a few mins you have a custom built monte carlo. Normally takes longer to create pretty charts to show the results than it does to perform the calculation. Using a similar methodology very quick to generate price series which can then be used to calculate the values of options, including exotics that you couldn't evaluate with a closed form solution. Don't do much of the latter any more but in previous lives I did.


Kevin's tool is great and pretty much idiot proof. If you can open Excel and copy in a list of trade results, you can use it. Saying that one of the first things I did after taking Kevin's course was to rewrite his monte-carlo spreadsheet. Kevin's spreadsheet, performs a complete monte-carlo for every starting equity level. The biggest change I made was to only perform a single monte-carlo analysis but calculate performance for every starting equity level based upon that. The results table is then a lot smoother and less prone to outliers effecting a single starting equity level. I also changed the code so that it stored all the results and performed all the calculations in arrays in VBA rather than have to write them to excel. This allows me to quickly add additional performance metric calculations by just adding columns to the arrays to track whatever I want.

While we perform monte-carlo simulations to model equity curves, and model risk of ruin probabilities, return and drawdown distributions why do we stop there? Each one of those simulations has a different Profit Factor, Win Ratio, Sharpe Ratio, Ulcer Ratio etc etc. I'm currently working on a monte carlo that calculates a large number of these of statistics, and shows the distribution for each. I'm hoping that this is more informative than looking at a single number, based upon the actual backtest.

Thank you, @SMCJB, that is a wealth of information.

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 logenm 
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Interesting poll - I have poured a lot of money to get training only to see the so called experts close shop and disappear into the ether.

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goodoboy
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logenm View Post
Interesting poll - I have poured a lot of money to get training only to see the so called experts close shop and disappear into the ether.

Hello logenm,

Sorry to hear that. It happen to me as well. See my latest post my story. And join me in the new motto, no 1 year track record no cash for the trading trainers. If you want to see my cash, let me see your cash.

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thoughtful
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I am very new to trading, in fact have only traded my broker's recommendations and she of course puts them in. If I could dream up anything it would be for someone to show me a simple indicator and point out where i could enter and exit the trade. People talk a lot about "finding their edge" and I'd just like to be able to put in a trade on my own. I have tried the CME simulator and I have learned it is hard to trade, :-) indicators or not. I feel like I am guessing. A guide would be great.


I think your dream makes sense, a simple gauge that tells you the market's high value price, and low value price, much like "Bollinger Bands" but that works better. That's actually something I came up with after many years of research. I was thinking of packaging up some code and giving away a simple gauge, but haven't had the time yet.

I can describe something that may help here though... basically it's like Boll. Bands but different in a few ways:
1) Use an average deviation instead of standard deviation, because standard distorts the true data.
2) Calculate the high band and the low band separately -- the high band is calculated from the bar highs, and the low band from the bar lows, and the high & low bands' deviations are calculated separately IOW the high band is calculated from itself, whereas B.Bands uses the deviation of both sides for each side but that's technically wrong.
3) Use an EMA, do not use an average, this is actually very important, I won't go into why here.
4) Always use 2 avg deviations from the EMA. Anything other than this is just mathematically wrong. I won't go into why here.
5) Set the lookback to TWO wavelengths, the wavelength changes all the time, but take your best guess at the average. Don't use any other lookback, I won't go into why here, but this will give you the true value price. The market runs on swings, not bars, so you want two swings lookback, and since we're using bars for data to approximate the swing data, that is exactly two wavelengths.

This indicator is a gauge as to what the value-balance price of the market is, there's two values, or bands, the high band and the low band. So ideally you want to buy at/near the low band and sell at/near the high band (not in the middle). The middle is used to tell you momentum -- if the market price started at the high band (it was last/most-recently at the high band) and then crosses the middle, then there's a super high probability that the market price will reach the low band. And vice versa. You could wait for the middle to be crossed before entering, but again ideally you want to enter at/near one of the bands.

"In range" & "out of range":
If the market price passed above the high band, or below the low band, then that means the market price is "out of range" on this current scale. On larger scales the market price will still be "in range" (below the high band and above the low band). Once out of range, a reversal is a retracement plus crossing back into range. While in range, a reversal is reaching the high or low band, then having a retracement (but the main scale doesn't need a retracement, only your smaller signal scale).

I'll let you figure out what scales to use, but basically you have your main scale which is the minimum scale at which you can make money swing trading. For example, I use a ~12 tick range chart for the E-mini 500. Then you have your smaller 'signal scale' which you use to get signals off of, for example I use ~6 to 7 tick range chart, but you might also use even smaller scales than that for some other types of signals. I won't discuss signals here. Then, you have larger scales which are your main trend -- the net composite trend of all market participants. This is harder to determine because it changes all the time, based on what all market participants are doing. There is a way to figure this out, but it's too much to discuss here now. At least establish your main scale and signal scale(s).

And use range charts, because that's mathematically correct. Time charts don't make any sense IMO. Volume or tick charts are much better than time, but again don't make sense. Renko is okay, except that most/all software has it coded wrong -- it's supposed to be exactly the same as range charts but it eliminates some of the trending bars because it doesn't show the overlapping bars... so just use range charts because that's the correct way to plot data.

So, that's a basic concept of what I figured out. Noone will probably care LOL. Everyone has their own methods and is set in their ways, which is fine, but what I do is mathematically sound and works. But again, if I tried to sell what I know, I'd probably not make $1 because of all the crappy scammy stuff that's been circulating for decades, so everyone is skeptical for good reason.

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  #32 (permalink)
 SMCJB 
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@thoughtful I've always wondered why we use standard deviation so much over average deviation. Definitely more effected by outliers. I think the answer is probably related to the fact that calculus doesn't like absolute value functions.

Would you also calculate exponential average deviations rather than simple ones?

Also whats the mathematical reason to use 2 avg deviations from the EMA? Obviously understand the relationship of standard deviations to the normal distribution but this is obviously different.

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 justtrader 
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thoughtful View Post

I can describe something that may help here though... basically it's like Boll. Bands but different in a few ways:
1) Use an average deviation instead of standard deviation, because standard distorts the true data.
2) Calculate the high band and the low band separately -- the high band is calculated from the bar highs, and the low band from the bar lows, and the high & low bands' deviations are calculated separately IOW the high band is calculated from itself, whereas B.Bands uses the deviation of both sides for each side but that's technically wrong.
3) Use an EMA, do not use an average, this is actually very important, I won't go into why here.
4) Always use 2 avg deviations from the EMA. Anything other than this is just mathematically wrong. I won't go into why here.
5) Set the lookback to TWO wavelengths, the wavelength changes all the time, but take your best guess at the average. Don't use any other lookback, I won't go into why here, but this will give you the true value price. The market runs on swings, not bars, so you want two swings lookback, and since we're using bars for data to approximate the swing data, that is exactly two wavelengths.

Also, @SMCJB --
"1) Use an average deviation instead of standard deviation,"
Please define average deviation.

"4) Always use 2 avg deviations from the EMA."
Please explain this statement further. Is there a formula?

Are you plotting only the bands generated with the Highs and Lows, and not using any plot generated from the Close?

You use this 'modified' BollingerBand on both higher time frame and lower time frame charts simultaneously?


Thank you.

TWYS NWYT (Price Advertises Opportunity; Time Regulates it; Volume Measures its Success/Failure ---- Dalton)
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 Tiffsgreta 
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thoughtful View Post
I think your dream makes sense, a simple gauge that tells you the market's high value price, and low value price, much like "Bollinger Bands" but that works better. That's actually something I came up with after many years of research. I was thinking of packaging up some code and giving away a simple gauge, but haven't had the time yet.

Thank you @thoughtful - I can see why you chose your name! I really do appreciate you taking the time to answer this. I am going to study this religiously and maybe I will have more questions to post, being so new. You have been a godsend though.

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  #35 (permalink)
thoughtful
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SMCJB View Post
@thoughtful I've always wondered why we use standard deviation so much over average deviation. Definitely more effected by outliers. I think the answer is probably related to the fact that calculus doesn't like absolute value functions.

Would you also calculate exponential average deviations rather than simple ones?

Also whats the mathematical reason to use 2 avg deviations from the EMA? Obviously understand the relationship of standard deviations to the normal distribution but this is obviously different.

For the average deviation, just use a simple average of the deviations. An EMA is not applicable in this case.

I think I may be a little premature in my explanation, because I use a different version of this gauge, long story there (it's simple but it's not as easy to code), so I really need to finish coding this, and then I'll re-post more explanation. Sorry about that! So I really need to finish the code and then I'll re-post in the future with definitive info.

But for now, basically, I think what I should have said is to calculate the deviation based on a simple average (of 2 wavelengths lookback), so for the high band, each bar's deviation is the absolute value of that bar's high minus the simple average. Then, after you have the average deviation calculated, plot 2 avg dev's from the EMA.

The reason for 2 avg dev's is because that's what results in the best approximation of the swing (peak or trough). Imagine a perfectly symmetrical sine wave, of one wavelength, the average of all the data points (bars) will be half way from the bottom of the wave to the top of the wave, right in the middle. Draw a horizontal line right at that middle value, now, starting from this middle of the wave, the average deviation will be half way to the top (or, vice versa, half way to the bottom). That's your 1 avg deviation, but since we want the value to be at the swing, IOW the peak of the wave (or the trough), we have to double it so that's 2 avg deviations.

You could use maximum deviation instead of average deviation, and then you'd use 1 deviation from the EMA instead of 2. This is probably easier, and just as good.

Also, you could only use deviations on one side, so for the high band you only use deviations above the average, and ignore all deviations below it. But, I'm not sure if that really matters much or not yet, it's just an optimization idea.

ALSO, I need to clarify the EMA lookback. When I say 2 wavelengths lookback for the EMA, I mean the EMA factor is 1 divided by 2 wavelengths. That's what you write in the code. But the standard EMA formula is calculated as 1 divided by (HALF of the lookback). So sorry about that!!! So, if you're using a standard EMA formula then you want the lookback to be 4 wavelengths. I really need to finish coding this before I start explaning it LOL. But I just cleared some things up, so hopefully what I said in this post is now correct. So, for calculating the average deviation, use 2 wavelenghts lookback. And for the EMA calculation, use 4 wavelengths lookback. EMA's are confusing in that way.



justtrader View Post
Also, @SMCJB --
"1) Use an average deviation instead of standard deviation,"
Please define average deviation.

"4) Always use 2 avg deviations from the EMA."
Please explain this statement further. Is there a formula?

Are you plotting only the bands generated with the Highs and Lows, and not using any plot generated from the Close?

You use this 'modified' BollingerBand on both higher time frame and lower time frame charts simultaneously?


Thank you.

Average deviation is simply a standard math thing -- just an average of all the individual bars' deviation.
Yes, I recommend only using the highs and lows, don't use the Close or (High + Low)/2. So for the high band you use the highs of the bars, that's it, nothing else. You want that edge, you don't want the Close near that edge. And, obviously, the high band and the low band are basically two separate calculations, they're like two completely separate indicators. Although the middle is the average of both bands, (high band + low band) divided by 2.
Yes, I use this gauge on multiple time frames. Basically I just use my main scale (12 to 14 tick range chart for Emini500), I wait for the market to reach one of the bands, then start looking for a reversal pattern & smaller scale signal pattern. But, I also use larger scales to further filter the trade, the larger scales show the net composite trend of all market participants. So, I wait for the momentum to run out on larger scales before I'll take a main scale trade. How I pick the larger scales is another topic.



Tiffsgreta View Post
Thank you @thoughtful - I can see why you chose your name! I really do appreciate you taking the time to answer this. I am going to study this religiously and maybe I will have more questions to post, being so new. You have been a godsend though.

Thanks! I hope my ideas help. I was basically clueless some years ago, but I figured out some basic concepts like this gauge that helps alot... I started with the approach that the market is a mysterious thing and I was just trying to find some kind of "magic wand" or "handle" on it, but then I realized that just basic mathematically sound data analysis was what helped me the most. IOW just being able to establish a logical high & low value gauge, and also finding the trend on larger scales (not discussed here in this post). I figure what all market participants do is basically random, since I don't know what they're going to do or when, but what we traders can do is price data analysis to see where the value levels are, and the market always tries to buy low & sell high at those value levels, otherwise they wouldn't make as much money or they'd lose money. The data (mainly swings) tells you what the market is doing.

The gauge adapts to volatility, if there's alot of amplitude, the 'channel widdth' of the gauge is wider, and vice versa. It's always tracking what the market is doing. So, anyways, I like the concept because it gives me a framework to know "where" the market is on any given scale.

Again, I plan to write up some code (and post it online), but haven't done so yet. I have code of my own, but I have alot of other code mixed in, so I have to clean it up first, and haven't had time yet.

Oh, BTW, there's some details about what constitutes an out-range reversal pattern, and an in-range reversal pattern. For example, out of range is defined as 1 full barrange past the band (using a range chart). 1 barrange on a range chart is the minimum significant amount of price movement for that scale, it's the minimum reversal amount to make a swing. 1/2 a barrange is a "leeway" (near enough) amount, so if the market reached within a 1/2 barrange of a band then that's considered near enough to say that it reached the band. The out-range reversal pattern is: the market goes out of range, then has a retracement, then it Closes inside the band, but you don't always use the most recent band value, you use the band value that it went out of range of... so the pattern is a sequence, you use the most recent pattern, sometimes a pattern starts but before it can complete it gets replaced by a new pattern. Also, the main scale doesn't have to have a full in-range reversal to trade it, it can just reach the band (but not go out range) and then I only need a smaller scale signal. Anyways, I'll probably explain more when I package up some code.

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  #36 (permalink)
 justtrader 
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thoughtful View Post


Average deviation is simply a standard math thing -- just an average of all the individual bars' deviation.
Yes, I recommend only using the highs and lows, don't use the Close or (High + Low)/2. So for the high band you use the highs of the bars, that's it, nothing else. You want that edge, you don't want the Close near that edge. And, obviously, the high band and the low band are basically two separate calculations, they're like two completely separate indicators. Although the middle is the average of both bands, (high band + low band) divided by 2.
Yes, I use this gauge on multiple time frames. Basically I just use my main scale (12 to 14 tick range chart for Emini500), I wait for the market to reach one of the bands, then start looking for a reversal pattern & smaller scale signal pattern. But, I also use larger scales to further filter the trade, the larger scales show the net composite trend of all market participants. So, I wait for the momentum to run out on larger scales before I'll take a main scale trade. How I pick the larger scales is another topic.

Thank you again for taking the time to explain all these. I am anxiously waiting for your code to become available.

TWYS NWYT (Price Advertises Opportunity; Time Regulates it; Volume Measures its Success/Failure ---- Dalton)
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  #37 (permalink)
 LastDino 
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Trading is my passion and my experience is that you learn better if you try to do it yourself rather than having it done for you.

Of course, there is/will be an exception when I feel its more suitable to have a hired hand, especially when it comes down to coding (platform setting is done for free in my country by brokers as "demo") as coding your indicator yourself can be bit of a hassle if you are not well versed with both math and programing language behind it. And learning it just for one particular indicator/job doesn't make any sense.

Having said that, again from my experience, its highly likely that it wont be just "one" instance and you will end up playing with 100's of indicators and in such a case its better to learn and do it yourself than to pay.

Finding your edge with just one attempt would be very very difficult. At least from my experience, I've been at it for couple of years and I dare not claim to be profitable consistently, but I also dare not say that I don't code/try something every week to find that edge in trading.

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rlkiwitrader
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considering there's many courses and systems out there charging thousands i think one on one advise from a reputable source would be well received and I think people would definitely pay a premium for that? I don't even want to think of all the courses and books I've purchased that have been a let down. i think a good hourly rate for good advise would be welcomed.

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 vmodus 
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LastDino View Post
Finding your edge with just one attempt would be very very difficult. At least from my experience, I've been at it for couple of years and I dare not claim to be profitable consistently, but I also dare not say that I don't code/try something every week to find that edge in trading.

Finding multiple edges that are resilient and time-tested is the best, I think. There so very many things that just fall apart after working for a few days, weeks, months. Then we find some stupid pattern that has been around since Babylonian days and it still works.

~vmodus

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 LastDino 
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vmodus View Post
Finding multiple edges that are resilient and time-tested is the best, I think. There so very many things that just fall apart after working for a few days, weeks, months. Then we find some stupid pattern that has been around since Babylonian days and it still works.

Indeed

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 MiniP 
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The biggest issue with this is( I know im off course a bit) many people pay for results not the knowledge. let that sink in, most people buy this stuff because they want a quick buck not because they want to take a little bit of time off the learning curve. If you honestly want to learn and grow then I think this is the best route out there if you can find quality help. To speed up this process, there is no correct dollar limit.

For the info I've gotten from @TheShrike I would have easily paid for that, but I one wanted to learn how he looked at options not just the money he makes from it.

-P

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  #42 (permalink)
 Shmo7 
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Other than buying trading books; a Chris Manning course I purchased in the early 2000's; and having a collection of Stocks and Commodities magazine spanning all the way back to the very first original issue (hard copy),... I prefer learning on my own. I've met too many people who profess to know how to trade, but didn't realize they were lacking or one dimensional in their trading approach.

Trading first started as a curiosity for me back in the early 2000s. After losing of lots of money during the dot.com bubble, I figured someone was making money and it wasn't me. I then decided I needed to educate myself, so jumped down the rabbit hole and started on my journey to trading knowledge.... since then, I've read hundreds of trading books (most of which were completely useless, at least not practical) and have spend literally thousands of hours manually backtesting trading systems I designed myself. I remember starting out using charting platforms like TradeStation 2000i; then progressing to Medved's Quote Tracker; then NinjaTrader 7; and now NinjaTrader 8. I never intended for trading to become such a big part of my life, but I can now say I have a trading system that's completely unique and that I intimately know and trust.

Trading for me was never about the money and future riches but the quest to understanding and learning how to trade. It's been two decades and countless hours of hard and meticulous work, but trading, for me, has always been a passion/obsession and a labour of love!

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  #43 (permalink)
 xplorer 
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SMCJB View Post
(I genuinely get a kick out of running risk of ruin monte carlo simulations on my laptop in the evenings, regardless as to whether it impacts my actual trading.)

Maybe you should consider changing your username to @ tradingGeek

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  #44 (permalink)
thoughtful
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Thank you again for taking the time to explain all these. I am anxiously waiting for your code to become available.

I finished writing some code for what I was explaning. I call the indicator "Trend Tracker". I started a new topic in the "Platforms and Indicators" board. Just look for the text "Trend Tracker".

So, forget the details of what I said before LOLOL. Sorry about that! The concept I was talking about is the SAME, but it turns out the code is a little different than what I explained. So I kind of deserve some eye rolling heh. I decided to not use an average deviation at all, instead I just find the highest High or Low over a one wavelength lookback, since that's what the average deviation is trying to approximate anyways, and it's simpler. And, the concept is still to use two wavelengths for the EMA factor, however, I realized that I had to use a smaller amount of bars due to the 'compounding effect' of EMAs, and I ended up noticing that multiplying it by .618 seemed to be the right value. I'm not 100% sure about that ratio or the math, I just ran some examples and they all seem to end up at that ratio, so I figure it may be correct. I figure spirals in nature are a similar compounding effect, so maybe the phi (.618) ratio has something to do with that. Anyways, check out the indicator, and compare it to Bollinger Bands (run both at the same time on some charts) -- I think you'll like my indicator better. Also, I posted a readme text file on MC's site, so you should read that if you're interested.

If anyone wants to discuss the indicator, just go to my topic in the other board.

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  #45 (permalink)
 justtrader 
San Francisco, CA
 
Experience: Intermediate
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thoughtful View Post
I finished writing some code for what I was explaning. I call the indicator "Trend Tracker". I started a new topic in the "Platforms and Indicators" board. Just look for the text "Trend Tracker".


If anyone wants to discuss the indicator, just go to my topic in the other board.

Forgive my ignorance. Would you please provide me with a link to your indicator. I can not locate it nor your new topic.

Thanks.

TWYS NWYT (Price Advertises Opportunity; Time Regulates it; Volume Measures its Success/Failure ---- Dalton)
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 Tiffsgreta 
Kanab utah/usa
 
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Trading first started as a curiosity for me back in the early 2000s. After losing of lots of money during the dot.com bubble, I figured someone was making money and it wasn't me. I then decided I needed to educate myself, so jumped down the rabbit hole and started on my journey to trading knowledge.... since then, I've read hundreds of trading books (most of which were completely useless, at least not practical)

I'd like to know which trading books you did find useful!

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 Tiffsgreta 
Kanab utah/usa
 
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Forgive my ignorance. Would you please provide me with a link to your indicator. I can not locate it nor your new topic.

Thanks.

hey @justtrader - just search for "trend tracker" - it'll come right up

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  #48 (permalink)
 Shmo7 
Toronto, Canada
 
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Tiffsgreta View Post
I'd like to know which trading books you did find useful!

Technical Trading Books:
To tell you the truth, there is no one book(s) that you can read that will give you magical insight into the mechanics of the markets. It's really the culmination of all that you read that eventually make things clearer. In the past, when I started reading a technical trading book, my goal was to find one page or even one paragraph in the whole book that would inspire a single trading idea that I could spend a few days/weeks/months testing..... if that happened, the book was a success. I found most books to be shallow and did not go into the minutia of how to trade all market conditions. Many books will quote examples that are applicable to certain conditions but in hindsight failed miserably in other market conditions. Other books would generalize too much, which I didn't find helpful (i.e. Elliott Wave theory or Dow theory).

There are basic trading technical books that all serious traders should have and read, like: Edward & Magee's "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends"; or Schwager's "Technical Analysis on Futures"; Kaufman's "Trading Systems and Methods". I also recommend Nison's "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques"; and Gartley's "Profits in the stock Market".

Once you gain a higher level of technical proficiency, you begin to realize that you need fewer indicators in order to read the markets and that reading price action plays a more important part in predicting future price movement. I have both of Bulowski's books on chart patterns and I use to trade patterns (many years ago). I'd win half my trades but I didn't always know when to enter/exit efficiently. Once I understood the conditions (price action) that created chart patterns, I was better able to consistently win bigger trades with better entries/exits. Price action and what causes price action become key for me. That said, I'd recommend all three of Al Brooks' books on price action. They're a little dry and at times difficult to follow, …but what the heck, I use to be a CPA and I had to read accounting textbooks in university (nothing will put you to sleep faster than accounting textbooks).

Trading Psychology Books:
The most useful books I've read, dealt with trading psychology. As with all performance activities at an elite level, the mental side plays a critical role in achieving peak, consistent/long-turn results. You can gain technical mastery of the markets but if you can't pull the trigger during entry opportunities and exit warnings..... it's almost like you have nothing. You have a skill, but you can't put it to use. Gaining mental proficiency is a must!!! That said, Alexander Elder's book titled "Trading for a Living"; Ari Kiev's "Trading in the Zone"; Mark Douglas also has a book titled "Trading in the Zone; ...and the most impactful trading psychology book I've read is Gary Dayton's "Trading Mindfully". Once you've mastered the technical side of trading, pour lots of effort into the mental side too. Once you've gain proficiency in both the technical and the mental side of trading, you'll really start making money day in and day out. It doesn't mean you'll win every trade but it will mean you'll trade confidently because now the odds are heavily in your favour and you have the ability to assess and trade any market condition.

There are no shortcuts, I hope this helps!
-Shmo

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  #49 (permalink)
 Tiffsgreta 
Kanab utah/usa
 
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Shmo7 View Post
Technical Books:
To tell you the truth, there is no one book(s) that you can read that will give you magical insight into the mechanics of the markets. It's really the culmination of all that you read that eventually make things clearer. In the past, when I started reading a technical trading book, my goal was to find one page or enough one paragraph in the whole book that would inspire a single trading idea that I could spend a few days/weeks/months testing..... if that happened, the book was a success. I found most books to be shallow and did not go into the minutia of how to trade all market conditions. Many books will quote examples that are applicable to certain conditions but in hindsight failed miserably in other market conditions. Other books would generalize too much, which I didn't find helpful...

There are no shortcuts, I hope this helps!

This is great of you @Shmo7 - appreciate the insight. And I agree. Accounting books are boring.
-Greta

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  #50 (permalink)
 justtrader 
San Francisco, CA
 
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Tiffsgreta View Post
hey @justtrader - just search for "trend tracker" - it'll come right up

Thank you Greta.

Search works now. Not sure why it did not yesterday.

Got the code, and now I guess I have to learn MultiCharts EasyLanguage. I was hoping the code was for NinjaTrader.

TWYS NWYT (Price Advertises Opportunity; Time Regulates it; Volume Measures its Success/Failure ---- Dalton)
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 rrrk 
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I'm Quiet New with trading Observing and Learning from this community , Listening and understanding , I had taken some bad decisions unknowingly and paid a fairly big amount for me to learn to trade from a so called Coach in the past , an episode I just want to put behind my head and move on … , Due to that bad experience I will not be paying any one anything any more to learn to trade , I'm getting tons of information from the people in this forum which is very valuable and just a thank you for every one who keeps this space valuable , I personally believe that their is a lot of information in all digital medias venues to explore , observe and learn.

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 sailnaked6842 
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Pretty interesting question. At the end of the day we're all investors and looking for a return on investment so what I'd pay for help would directly relate to the service provided and how widely applicable it is. I'd happily pay $500 for an edge and understanding the system/market that someone has spent years refining in an instrument that I don't trade. Would I pay $500 to hear someone speak? Probably not, not even Dave Weiss. But paying $500 would be worth it to sit down for an hour and ask him what's the difference between this situation on one instrument, and this instrument on another.

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  #53 (permalink)
aloyceprince
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i ill pay even 5000$ as long as your good on it the probleam its will take a loooot of effort to get the right mentor not those people who push their aggenda in youtube screaming how to make 10k in day loooh

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