I like to wake up early on Saturday morning (US pacific time) and get a market replay session in. I'm not sure if I'm alone in this tradition, or if there are others out there that do the same thing. But I thought it might be fun to create a thread where Saturday morning traders can share their replay screens, discuss trades, shoot the breeze, and maybe learn from each other.
I'll go first...
I thought this chart presents an interesting situation. It's a 5m long bond replay from November 3 (no spoilers! ) I got an open in the lower portion of y-range, and we got an opening sell off that went for about a half of the 20 day average daily range.
I faded the close of bar 18, which was a really strong close that failed to break below the p-lod. Which is fine because I think strong closes that fail to BO of range extremes are good spots to fade. However, it looks to me that the market might be a little short here so I need to watch out for weak bulls.
Bars 19 and 20 look like profit taking by the bears and not really bulls getting excited. The bears sold again during bar 21. This is a good spot for a measured move lower for a full 20d ADR. I could get steam rolled.
It's an interesting situation.
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Hey @Salao, thanks for putting this thread together! I'm in, and I'll be here regularly!
I'm actually doing some intraday chart research from 2020 this morning, still grinding through early January, ha!
Normally I do market-replay too, so I'll definitely be around this thread to either contribute replays (I've got a bunch of links to some of my previous ones here under "market replay dojo", not that anyone is actually interested, ha! Or "shoot the breeze". Good to see you posting, I was going to come harass you in your journal pretty soon!
Looking forward to this
The following 2 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
Hey @snax! Thanks for bailing me out! . I'm still marking up charts everyday, but I've been slacking on my public journaling. I should probably get back into it soon! Journaling can be tough though. There are a lot of ups and downs to be putting out there for all to see. Maybe I'm being silly about it though.
The bulls are buying my trade this morning...I probably should be scalping out. But I'm going to be stubborn a little bit.
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Probably should have scalped the trading range! Haha! Bears got their mm to ~1ADR. Put my stop below the mm and scaled in lower. It wasn't pretty but...
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Hey @snax! All is well thanks! Hope you're doing well...as well ()! I sort of abandoned this thread after my Phillip Capital freak out, didn't I? Haha! A revival seems like a good idea. I will definitely join up with you tomorrow for a market replay and a coffee...or two.
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Don't sweat the freak out. (GOOD song-title). I have managed to dodge the Phillip Capital outage and now two Trading Technologies order-routing outages (Sierra Chart Order-Routing Service currently ties into TT on the backend) just by pure dumb luck. I'm in no hurry to get back to that mess right now, hoping SC puts TT in their rear-view soon as they claim they are trying to do.
Deep in the soul-searching period, trying to find the next step along the journey. Market is defintely hinting in a not so subtle fashion at wanting a little more something out of me if I'm going to start pulling money out so I'm trying to figure out what that something is and how to attain it (so demanding!)
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One of my favourite things is doing a manual bar by bar market replay of the week prior over the weekend. Seeing what I missed, how I could improve vs my actual performance. It gets me I’m sync for the coming week. During the week I often sim trade to stay sharp or if I want to try something out, or on another market. I also plot what I think will happen on charts and it’s fun to see how far out or accurate I am as price unfolds.
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I can totally relate! The market definitely has a way of hinting to us that we need to improve, usually with soul-bludgeoning subtlety. Haha! Sorry to get morbid. . I've been in 'wilderness mode' as well. Not completely lost, but not all that sure what I need to do to move forward. And I'm not too eager to place my next trade.
I think you are on the right path though. This stuff DOES get figured out...sometimes.
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My first entry of the morning is awfully marginal in quality. Bar 3 looked like a weak attempt at a reversal, so I sold above it. I set a profit target at 2R, but this might only be good for a scalp...not sure yet.
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It looks like the lows of bars 6 and 7 gave the bulls enough confirmation to begin a test of HOD. I though about closing the trade at the close of bar 7, but then I thought it would be more fun to scale in higher above 1. I probably should practice how I want to play, but life is short...you know? .
As I type this, it looks like the test above 1 is failing...at least for now. Fun stuff!
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hi... its only recently I've only started watching the Open more closely. I watched this on Friday and printed it before I saw your thread.. This is a product of Saturday morning...
Its ES, at the Open of the London Cash session. Obviously there's the Asian session beforehand. When London cash opens, the volumes doubles for maybe an hour... Fresh buyers and sellers... Its my preferred time of day to trade.
When the bar opened, it went up only 2 ticks and fell... hint? Then a slight recovery and rolled over on bars 3 and 4. Sellers entered and momentum built... Do I leap aboard momentum. I've always been weary of leaping aboard, always looked for the exact top... Evidence shows lots of bigger traders do leap aboard momentum, so why don't I...
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I don't look at the 1 minute chart ever, but I thought it was interesting that after bar '1' the bulls seemed to test higher. Each test failed and then the selling momentum seemed to increase. I like to see that kind of confirmation before entering. How do you gauge momentum? Momentum seems so subjective to me because I don't have a good way to quantify it. .
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This has gotten to me too. I have been dealing with a lot of unhealthy expectations and pressure I put on myself, even in market-replay. Its interesting that I started noticing a plateau in my own trading right around the time you decided to take a break.
I am just trying to work through some of my issues, things seem to be getting better but its all new territory for me so no way to really tell until I jump back in, which may be next week, maybe later.
Hope you are finding that happiness you've been mentioning!
The following 4 users say Thank You to snax for this post:
@snax! Happy weekend! Your pizza looked delicious! It looked like you had steak, jalapenos, olive, mozz, and...I'm probably missing some ingredients. It looked great!
Your comments on 'unhealthy expectations' are interesting and very relatable. . I know that over the past 6 months I could have managed my expectations for myself way better. It's difficult to do anything right under pressure, even if the pressure is self-applied. Self applied pressure is about as fake as it gets, so it now seems so silly to get as worked-up as I did about some those loss days.
Anyhow, I'm feeling pretty good about things but I'm still not sure about how to start trading again. I'm thinking about maybe trading MES Pariah Carey-style with hold times over a few days. I still enjoy studying, and watching the markets in the morning, I just don't think I can do the 4:00 AM wake-ups to watch the gold market anymore. It becomes...too much.
I'm doing great though thanks! BTW...Nice trade the other day! I think you had a hold time that was many multiples greater than what you had been doing. I know that is something you had been trying to improve so it was great to see you do that!
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) I got an open in the lower portion of y-
.