Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
I'm sorry for being harsh but you still won't answer my question, which, by the way, is the title to this thread. Some how we all got off topic and started talking about goals instead of actual live results. For me Goals are primary but results are MORE interesting as they bare witness to the validity of a trading system. That is what the thread was about and that is what I'm interested in people sharing.
But to follow up on the goals conversation... I know that the guys who win the World Cup of Trading contests are taking on more risks to get higher returns but I personally feel that a tempered goal using the same ideas and systems that they use is the path to higher returns than say the top hedge fund managers in the world.
Check out the standings page on the World Cup of Trading website if you don't believe me. Modest returns of 50% PALE in comparison to the yearly winners there with the exception of a few years and the LOWEST winner during those years was 53%.
I did some number crunching to find out the Average and median return per year from 1984-2018 Futures contests winners.
Average return/year from 1984-2020 (removing outlier Larry Williams astronomical return of 11376% return in 1987) = 316%!!!!!
Median return (also removed Larry Williams 1987 outlier) = 231%
I figure if I'm not trying to win some contest I would take less risk but still have good systems with positive expectancy so 1/4 of the risk of these gurus would return somewhere around 231%/4 = 58%
As my account grows I will be glad to take cash out and start to B&H ETFs and Stocks for a more modest return with no yearly expenses due to taxes and trading costs. Maybe its the gambler in me but I feel totally comfortable with a higher risk tolerance while I'm young.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
What percentage of World Cup entrants blew their account up? I'm assuming it's very high. I think they all view it as a $10,000 entry fee, and then you have a free $10,000 to make as much as you can. Having met and talked about this with 6 previous winners it's clear they trade differently in this event than they do normally.
I would like to see a contest with best Risk Adjusted Return as criteria. But that would not be as "sexy." Years ago there was an Emerging CTA contest like that.
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,388
Thanks Received: 10,207
Let me clarify my question.
Imagine the game, where you spin a roulette wheel twice. Each win doubles your money, each loss halves it. Would we all agree that the person who quadruples his money by winning twice, took the same risk as the person who ends up with 25% of his initial money by losing twice? ie outcome does not define risk.
I'd use max drawdown of account equity. Far from perfect (someone could get lucky betting the farm on a trade that works out - so they'd appear to have zero risk when in fact they had a ton of risk), but it would eliminate a lot of pretenders.
