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I appreciate the feedback and referral to @kevinkdog. I'm really looking forward to diving into his content and others as I develop my platform, or extending NT8 as the case may be.
I'll look to make contributions to FIO as I make progress in my journey. I've already received much from the contributors and will give back as I can to add value to the community.
2020 was my first full year of trading in the Black!! After failing miserably at discretionary trading I decided to research a systematic approach late in 2019 and that led me to @kevinkdog . I began tooling around with his free strats he gives out and immediately dove head first into algo development. I learned pretty early on that the strats I was developing were okay but not great. After watching nearly all his Youtube videos I decided to spend the money on his course and that truly has been the defining moment in my success as a trader.
I started live trading back in June of this year and I ended the year with, if you would believe it, exactly 100% return and after the turn of the year I am up very near 150% in my account since June. I will say I did have a maximum of $5000 drawdown in account. Currently I am trading MGC 4 contracts and MES a max of 3 contracts long or short. I also am trading US, CL, NG, Soy, and Corn. I have one strat that I have developed that actually passes my criteria for live trading and I may turn that one loose on the market next month. So many of my strategies have had good luck lately and I know my worst drawdown is ahead of me but I am absolutely confident now that I am on the the proper path to success.
I will say that my account size was fairly small to begin with but it was enough to get me to the point where I feel comfortable trading the full size contract of many assets at the same time. From my experience trading these assets now I know I need a higher acct balance before increasing position size but I know the day will come soon.
My goal was 50% return each year and I hit the 50% mark after 6 months and from there my equity has gone near vertical. While 2020 sucked in many respects as far as trading goes it was my best year ever.
The interesting part is if I have been live with all the strats I have now at the beginning of the year instead of starting June 5 then My return would have been near 300%. That is just crazy to even think about. I am eager to see how this year goes for me and even more eager for @kevinkdogs event this April.
May I ask how well did you do last year percentage wise? 50% return I believe is absolutely achievable given a proper approach. maybe it won’t happen every year but like this year some years may be 200% return others may be negative others may be 25 or 50. But it can’t hurt to aim high as long as your approach is solid.
One things for sure, if you have 10, 20 or maybe even 50 strategies that all produce a healthy back test and are behaving like the back test, if one fails in one year but most do well then a healthy return can be expected. I’m sure as my account grows I may temper my goal for 50% but in the meantime with a smaller account size it’s absolutely achievable.
It really boils down to risk tolerance. If you trade for fun I can see how smaller returns are expected. But if you plan to trade full time I would hope that a higher return is expected.
It all depends on the risk involved. If you say 50% annual return with 10% maximum drawdown, I'd definitely say not long term sustainable.
If you say 50% annual with 50% maximum drawdown, I'd say that is possible BUT it is a lot of risk, and a lot of stress, and most people would probably quit before achieving it.
My personal goal every year is 50% return, with 25% maximum drawdown. That doesn't mean I always achieve one or both, but that is what I aim for.
Actually, I'd say the smaller accounts are easier to "shoot for the moon" with high returns. If you trade full time or with a lot of capital, you'll focus more on not losing money, rather than making huge gains. You'll become a bit more protective of your capital. With smaller accounts, most people feel OK being more reckless...
Trading: Primarily Energy but also a little Equities, Fixed Income, Metals and Crypto.
Frequency: Many times daily
Duration: Never
Posts: 5,049 since Dec 2013
Thanks Given: 4,386
Thanks Received: 10,207
Congratulations to you sir, and I very genuinely mean that. I would caution you though not to expect that as the norm.
Long Term Realistic... Renaissance Technologies, probably the most successful Hedge Fund ever had averaged returns of approximately 60% I believe, and they are the best of the best of the best.
Since we're all talking about Kevin (go Browns!), in the class I did with Kevin early in the class Kevin asked what was a fair expected return? He then showed the top performing CTA's over the last (I think) 1 and 3 years. My take away was if your expecting to outperform the best CTA's in the business then your expectations are to hgh.
Why did you need to complicate this by mentioning risk. If I put it all on black and black wins I have a 100% return!
I certainly know it’s not the norm (100%+ return). But an annualized return of 50% is very achievable with a personal trading account. If it isn’t then I would ask what the hell are we all doing here? if I wanted a 15-20% return I would just buy and hold.
Even a 30% return would be kind of subpar because expenses and taxes would eat into that 30% making it closer to a 20-25%.
In regards to the best CTA’s, I am familiar with KJD’s discussion on tempered expectations, but even he points out they have huge assets under management typically and trying to get this kind of return would be extremely hard year in and year out. Not to mention CTA’s have clients to keep happy as they are way more concerned about downside risk than little o’ me with my tiny account.
All I’m trading is either 1 lots or so far 4 micros at most.
I totally understand the risks I’m taking and feel comfortable with where I’m at going forward. I didn’t realize 50% was so lofty a goal for you all otherwise I would have kept that to myself.
But still I have to ask, isn’t that what we signed on for as active traders?
What puzzles me the most about some of your responses is that these returns are the result of my strategies acting like they have in the out of sample back test. No overperformers got me to the 50% goal I wanted. Anyway, I did t want to brag at all but I wanted to maybe give some hope to others that there is a way to achieve these kind of returns. I’m with Kevin and shooting for 50% return with a 25% drawdown.
I will be the first to admit that I’m still a green pea at all this and a lot of the implementation of these strategies is up to the traders discretion such as position sizing and strategy selection. But thanks to communities like this and others I have a place to throw ideas around and get some feedback. Actually It was due to this forum that I even heard of KJD in the first place.
Anyway, I’ve ranted enough. I wish you all the best in 2021.
if I wanted a 15-20% return I would just buy and hold. 
