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1. Yes the OBV will not confirm quite frequently. On post 251 I posted a chart where a breakout is not confirmed by OBV. A few mins later we get another breakout with confirmation but the initial breakout is not confirmed. Also, this morning 9:52 est there is a consolidation and breakout on the 6B that is not confiremd. This was a setup I was watching but did not trade due to the lack of confirmation.
2. First and foremost let me say that you will have losers with this system. It's inevitable. The set up is about having an edge that will pay off over the long run. The fact that you will have losers makes it even more imperative to focus on trading your plan, that is managing your stops correctly and always aiming for your target. For example I had a short on the 6C this morning (I attached chart). I was down as much as 11 ticks and up as much as 11 ticks. I got out breakeven, thats where my stop was hit and it never made my profit target. If I had panicked and got out when the trade initially went against me I would have lost. If I had got out up 11 ticks sure that would be great but if I keep doing that the strategy loses it sustainability. The key to finding the good setups, in my opinion is (1) gauging the strength of the preceding trend and (2) ensuring your risk exposure is not too large on the trade.
Good trading.
Blz
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
I'm glad to help and by all means I accept any input/comments/criticism as I have only been approaching trading like this for a very short period of time. But, I feel like I've had an epiphany when I started watching the charts from this perspective.
Great question regarding the OBV. Keep in mind it's just a form of confirmation and kind of a "crutch." When the price ran up to the thick red line and failed at 6:40 it gave me a swing high point of resistance in the OBV. That's why I lowered my OBV line. Now if the OBV gets above this lowered line but fails to push above that prior peak that you referred to I would certainly be concerned. But, for me, confirmation is just seeing the OBV making higher highs to confirm a breakout.
This is exactly how I felt when I was reading Feb's thread at Forex Factoring. I'm really liking simple. I think I've overcomplicated things with my ES trading, maybe even making volume too complicated. I like it simple, then one can easily monitor several markets.
One more if you don't mind. I see you use 150 tick. I'm current simming Feb's system II using 5 minutes for the currencies. I'm curious how you settled on 150 ticks and if you tried 5 minutes or other values.
Nice setup on CL that I watched develop but didn't pull trigger on. I did not sleep much last night so feeling a bit out of it. Not getting a ton of setups today either but they'll come.
I start on 5 min but felt that it got too ugly for me. I felt that with the 150 tick I could see the trend better. Plus I was reading a blog somewhere (don't remember where, possibly the guy who designed Better Volume indicator) where he talked about tick charts showing the breakout quicker. So, I took a look and agreed. Haven't gone back since.
Yep that's a great example. Also, I have traded the 6J but ultimately found its a bit sloppy and more difficult to use with this approach. I prefer the 6B, 6C and CL. The 6E is nice too but can be costly to trade with the tick value and can move really quick sometimes. You can also use it on ES but you need a strong trend for it to work and always make sure you risk reward is at least 1 to 1.
Just added 6C to my workspace and nailed the breakout. That was a quick 21 ticks.
For oil do you require 30-40 tick move? It's good to trade something other than currencies. The currencies move in the same direction so best to diversify.
I'm getting tired of ES. From what I see the currencies move a lot more and less fakeouts.
The only thing I'd question on that trade (which doesn't matter in hindsight cause you made some loot) is the profit target relative to your risk exposure. You should have been in around 40-41 and your stop should have been below the previous swing low so about 15-16. That puts your risk at least 24 ticks. That was the reason I avoided that particular trade. Perhaps just something to watch for in the future. Either way nice trade!
I still haven't quantified a move for CL and ES that qualifies it as a watch. As of now I just subjectively watch the chart for the strength of the move. I do need to do some research to determine a move that can be trigger a watch.
