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I'm going to go out on a limb here but I'm currently waiting for a bullish setup on the dollar which should happen real soon (by next week). Of course it could not work out and in that case I will probably reverse. But I see low risk setups across the board:
- ES short
- CL short
- GC short
- Euro short
- DX long
I feel we could be at a major turning point. Remember, when the market doesn't do what you expect then it's a good signal for the other direction. so if I see a bullish setup that fails, that makes a good short setup.
Long term I think the dollar will lose its value but we're not there yet. There's plenty of room to enjoy a dollar rally.
I'm going to offer a different point of view for the ORB.
First you say "we already know they work". Well if everyone knows they work then it's not going to work, but that's not the point I want to make.
Any range breakout works. Doesn't have to be the ORB, it can be any range. If you think about it, price cannot stay in a range forever so if you take the range breakout you're gauranteed to get into the trade when it breaks out.
The problem is how to take this idea and make it into a setup that's worth trading.
in the previous ES/YM 5min ORB, the Risk ratio was skewed to the point that it is not a good trade in my opinion. That doesn't mean it won't be profitable long term, but I think there are other better setups.
It's like gap fills. I forget the statistic but 80% of gaps get filled. But where do you put the stop? Some of those gaps get filled a week or two later. It's not easy to put together a low risk trade based on this information. If it were, then the big traders would put 1000 contracts into it every day.
When Crabel wrote his book, if you look at the edges they were around 55%. That's not a big edge at all. He stressed several times in his book that he intended for the ORB to give a bias for the day and that it was not a trading system in itself.
Concepts such as ORB work forever because the human emotions behind them don't change. However the optimal parameters (stop, target, range period) can change with market conditions.
Just a heads-up to keep all that in mind. Good trading to you!
PS: I have not done extensive research but I have not seen any evidence that floor traders use the floor pivots. I'm really curious if anyone has proved it by doing a survey of floor traders.
TRO has a great idea called BuyZone. You take the opening price and you add a small number of ticks to it (above & below) to make a zone. His theory is that any big move must go through the buy zone. Sounds great in theory but if you try it, I think you'll find that when price oscillates around the buy zone you get chopped to pieces. This is another example of a simple idea that most people cannot make profitable (I couldn't, but that could say more about me than the method hehe).
Therein lies the problem unless a workaround becomes available to use an internationally established clearinghouse that could maybe rotate/easily move between countries. I think it would feel better to "hedge" one's trading efforts by holding, if it were possible, in another currency... cash out and hold in that other country's currency. And, then "diversify" by also holding enough to live with the dollar... maybe one of you geniuses out there could create this option.
I did just read an interesting article on front page today of marketwatch that makes much more sense to me about gold... it talks about: Swiss gold
ETF Securities Ltd., a leading provider of exchange-traded funds, launched ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares /quotes/comstock/13*!sgol/quotes/nls/sgol ( [COLOR=#004176]SGOL[/COLOR]116.50, +1.44, +1.25%) on Sept. 9.
This ETF holds gold bullion bars stored in vaults in Zurich, Switzerland on behalf of custodian J.P. Morgan Chase /quotes/comstock/13*!jpm/quotes/nls/jpm ( [COLOR=#004176]JPM[/COLOR]43.17, -0.11, -0.25%) .
The vehicle was formed to tap into demand for geographically diversified gold investments. The theory is that if a government collapses in one part of the world, other countries may remain more stable.
The fund is "to satisfy investor requests to enable diversification not only from a geographic perspective, but also from a custodian and issuer perspective," said Fred Jheon, managing director and head of product development for ETF Securities.
ETF Securities chose Switzerland specifically because it has along tradition of "respecting the property rights of foreign investors," according to Brian Kelleher, senior vice president at ETFS Marketing, the marketing agent for the ETF in the U.S.
"A smaller minority was concerned about the U.S. precedent set in 1933," he added. "For people concerned about the possibility of confiscation, the Swiss aspect really does resonate."
Anyway, back to the reality, which is that I don't yet trade well enough to worry about buying or storing gold bars. ha ha
not sure if I understand what you mean. you can hold any currency you want. lets say you like the euro. you can open an account with euros. (you just buy them like bonds or stocks). then you can trade from that account. you can buy and sell american stocks from that account against euros. no problem.
The other thing I see is that these are 30 minute bars so you don't know what happens inside them. Where do you put your stop? You cannot tell by looking at a 30 minute bar if your target would be hit first or your stop.
I think to test this you need a 1min chart up with the 30 min, put your charts to global pointer, and then see which would be hit first.
nope. I didn't know this. LOL. That is just what I meant. So, I can check with Mirus Futures, for ex., and set up another account and have one in dollars and one in euros... ?(you have answered enough of the question that it can be done. THANKS. I can check into the rest on my own...
oops. don't know about mirus. was more thinking about "real" brokers and banks. those discount brokers might not do that. in fact pretty sure they won't.
