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All you need
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:534

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All you need

  #851 (permalink)
Market Wizard
virginia
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: ninja
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Blz17 View Post
...

fractal marked invert H&S

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  #852 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Esignal, MBT navigator
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Blz17 View Post
I respectfully disagree. . From a long term approach I believe this tilts your r/r out of favor and thus relies on generating substantially more winners then losers to stay positive.

Blz

My respect is mutual . What you need to consider is that a trade taken with a potential reward of 8 ticks and a stop of 8 ticks is generally considered 1/1 RR . There is nothing assuring you that you will capture 8 ticks profit , therefore if the true risk turned out to be 3 ticks then to me it justified exiting with 3 ticks profit . if you enter that same trade with a 3 tick stop you will probably get stopped out and price will then go in your favor.

Therefore if you accept the 8 tick stop you will substantially increase the average loss and do nothing for your bottom line . Besides , if I am confronted with a reversal signal why would I wait to get stopped out before reversing or standing aside ?

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  #853 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Blz17 View Post
I attached a pic of a nice trade set up on 6B today. I took this trade and actually blew it, didn't stick to my trade plan and tried to get too subjective about how I managed the trade. That being said it's a nice looking setup and a good reminder of sticking to your plan.

Blz - I've found that 5 min candles often reverse after 4 minutes. I just got suckered out of a trade on euro for the exact same reason. see my chart. I did manage to get 2 nice moves out earlier today though. While I was at work too!

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  #854 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
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Jeff Castille View Post
I am wondering about where to "set" it though. Swing high and swing low makes a lot of sense......but all the professionals know just where your stop is and delight in coming to take those stops out.

If you trade with the professionals then they will be defending your stop because they know all the stops are there and they want to move price in the opposite direction. This is where HVC comes in. HVC is the pro's defending their entry and trying to protect the stops underneath.

Stops are ran a lot less in stocks. More in CL than ES. The other day I saw my stop run twice on YM and on the ES chart the stop wasn't hit. So I switched back to ES. Could have been a fluke (2 times out of how many thousands) but I don't want to trade any market that routinely runs stops..

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  #855 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
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Eric j View Post
My respect is mutual . What you need to consider is that a trade taken with a potential reward of 8 ticks and a stop of 8 ticks is generally considered 1/1 RR . There is nothing assuring you that you will capture 8 ticks profit , therefore if the true risk turned out to be 3 ticks then to me it justified exiting with 3 ticks profit . if you enter that same trade with a 3 tick stop you will probably get stopped out and price will then go in your favor.

Therefore if you accept the 8 tick stop you will substantially increase the average loss and do nothing for your bottom line . Besides , if I am confronted with a reversal signal why would I wait to get stopped out before reversing or standing aside ?

You said you entered with 8 ticks top. Your MAE was 3 ticks. But your risk was 8 ticks. You're confusing the two. If you take profit at 3 then you just risked 8 to make 3. That is not good, cause only 1 loss will wipe out 3 winners. So your win rate has to be above 75%. that's really hard to do.

Personally, I put my stop out of the way and I shoot for a target = to stop. If price action doesn't look good then I bail, whether I have an open profit or loss. My goal is to cut my losers shorter than my winners and have an avg win / avg loss > 1.0 so that I can be profitable less than 50% of the time.

Everyone has to do what works for them so I don't criticize anyone who uses an inverted ratio. You can be successful like that. I just wasn't successful like that.

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  #856 (permalink)
Big game hunter
NY
 
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cunparis View Post
Personally, I put my stop out of the way and I shoot for a target = to stop. If price action doesn't look good then I bail, whether I have an open profit or loss.

Precisely , if you open a trade with an 8 tick stop to have it out of the way and price goes against you 3 ticks then goes toward profitting more than 3 ticks then stops you out for -8 ticks dont you think the TRUE RISK was only 3 ticks and you passed up a 1/1 opportunity ?

Say for example that same trade went against you 7 ticks and you bailed out with a 3 tick profit arent you initially risking more than the TRUE risk but captured a less than 1/1 RR ?

Just food for thought here , I respect everyones abilities but do find stops and targets and ratios and justification a slippery slope . If a win is better than a loser then why do I ( and I bet most of us ) have a hard time getting a handle on taking profits and feeling good about not losing ?

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  #857 (permalink)
Elite Member
Keithville LA
 
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Jeff Castille View Post
I have no knowledge of Sharkys release time table.

These dots paint so sweetly...I'm going to have my wife trade 'em. (She is not a trader)

Point being.... it's just that easy.

Hey Jeff,

I hope your wife is trying it today.
Quad witching day. This would be a true test!

Skid

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  #858 (permalink)
Elite Member
Northern California
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja Trader
Broker/Data: Amp Futures/ Zen-Fire
Favorite Futures: YM and CL
 
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Wife trading

Hey Skid,

She says she's up for it next week. She had some appointments today.

But....... so far two nice YM trades +10 each...... one ZN.... on the ZN trade I got impatient and pulled it with 1 tick profit.... of course as soon as I did it went to my target !!

All said I joined the 2% club today so no more real money just testing the "dots" from here on out. I'll get some charts together and post in a bit.

Jeff


Last edited by Jeff Castille; September 18th, 2009 at 02:20 PM.
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  #859 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bellingham, WA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Shark Attack Beta Test Day 1:

3 tick target 5 tick stop. I let my stop hit every time, as you will see when you study the chart you have to let ZN breathe with these dots because a couple times it went down 2 or 3 ticks before hitting the 3 tick target. 6 winners 3 losers. All in the morning session for ZN, entering every dot that came up with a market order. Interestingly enough, on the three stop outs, the dots disapeared after the fact but showed up initially. That is why you will see no dots where the stops got hit. As you can see we are still working on this so its better that everyone waits... Thanks for your patience. This is all Sharky's concept we are just posting our results with his indicators and making changes as he sees fit.

P.S. I didn't trade the last dot because Sharky, Jeff and I were talking about all the other trades and conferencing.

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  #860 (permalink)
Elite Member
MIAMI,FL
 
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and this was our fist live test,then we gave it some mods but the market is to slow now will have to wait till monday...sharky

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