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All you need
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All you need

  #661 (permalink)
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Jeff Castille View Post
Hey Dragon,

I believe that different people look at the same thing in a different way. That's the way it is with trading approaches. Big Mike or Sharky might trade differently than TRO or whoever..... ultimately you have to find a way that makes sense to you.

You need to find a way that makes cents to your aka profit, whether or not, it makes sense to you.

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  #662 (permalink)
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jonesr9 View Post
Trendlines don't prevail. Trendlines shows a trending market(either up or down like a flight a stairs), patterns forming, possible entry into a trade if the pattern breaks the trendline. Take a look at Jeff's chart he just posted. Pictures can show allot of great information.

Candle recognition comes with time.

Don't be afraid of drawing trendlines on a chart. They can help you see things that you are possibly not seeing.

If you are not careful, you will see things that are not there!!

"I drew the trendline. It clearly shows the trend is up. Price should have supported right there at the trendline when I went long. Why did it fall through? I don't understand."

There is nothing to understand. You have been fooled. Price was dropping and you went long? Once again, the rat beat you.

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  #663 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
TRO,

I like your rat studies, very eye opening. The challenge is in finding out how to trade this.

First issue is managing the stop loss. This is always my biggest problem in trading. Price could break the low (red rat) and then pullback 15 ticks. You have previously said that you'd exit at -10 ticks. So now what does the rat do? Does he sit out for this candle? Does he try it again at the previous low?

I found it really interesting that there was a big difference between exiting at the H/L and the close. Exiting on the close doesn't look very profitable. The problem is it's not easy to exit on the H or L. So one needs a way to exit. A profit target is the easiest way and could be determined by statistics. But then you'd miss the black swan. So I guess one would have to accept a profit somewhere in between exiting on the low and exiting on the close. How can we do this?

PRICE ACTION

If price is slowly crawling my way. I will usually exit with a small profit.

If price makes a nice jump and stops. I will exit when price stops.

If price returns to my original entry, I may look for another entry.

One can always exit part of the position at a profit, move the stop up to break even and let the rest ride.

Do not look for the Black Swan. Let it find you.

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  #664 (permalink)
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dragon View Post
i think one just has to trade on a bigger timeframe, that is the only way to catch those runners on the faster instruments like cl and es.

Do not be fooled.

price is the same on all time frames.

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  #665 (permalink)
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gannman View Post
I'm laughing...and crying.

Laughing...becuase this is sooo simple and probably works better than what I'm currently doing. Crying...because of all the time, money and frustration I have spent on books and indicators.

I have been letting the rat beat me.

No more.

Thank goodness I read this thread.

Thank you TRO...much for me to contemplate.

Cheers
Simon

Simon:

There is nothing to contemplate.

Just let go.

Let go of all the "myths" about trading that you have learned.

Learn to trust your eyes.

If you see price going up, then PRICE IS GOING UP.

If you see price going down, then PRICE IS GOING DOWN.

When you look at a clock, do you need an indicator to tell you what time it "really" is?

When you step out the door, do you need an indicator to tell you if it is sunny or raining?

TRUST WHAT YOU SEE.

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  #666 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post
PRICE ACTION

If price is slowly crawling my way. I will usually exit with a small profit.

If price makes a nice jump and stops. I will exit when price stops.

If price returns to my original entry, I may look for another entry.

One can always exit part of the position at a profit, move the stop up to break even and let the rest ride.

Do not look for the Black Swan. Let it find you.

Ok, but what about my first question about getting stopped out at the beginning of the trade?

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  #667 (permalink)
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jdella View Post
You're right you answered it in post 414, but the question still remains, what tells you that you should get out and take your profit? Even if it's a black swan event, at some point the trade will end and it's time to take profits? Since you only trade the long side is it a red candle that has it's low broken or something else? I mean if you did have a 10 pip stop and a 10 pip PT then you certainly would be limiting yourself if you in fact did get a serious runner. This is the only part that is a bit vague to me. I understand everything else, cuz it's simple, but if you could explain your method for exit I would appreciate that.

Thanks, Jeff

Jeff, I believe I have mentioned on more than one occasion, that when you hit your daily goal, QUIT TRADING. ( Some people hate the fact that I use caps, colors and large fonts at times. They think I am yelling at them. I am EMPHASIZING!!)

I do not have a profit target. I only have a stop loss. I take what the market gives. Anyone who frequents my chat room, knows I leave pips on the table more often than not. But that's hindsight. At the time, I am taking what profit there is to take - all of it!

There is no one "method" for exit. If you have proper position size and a reasonable daily goal, one or 2 winning trades can make you a winner for the day.

If you are familiar with COMPOUND INTEREST ( there goes those dreaded caps again ), then you should realize what making 2% or more on your account per day can do for you.

Without compounding, if you make 1% on your account per day and trade everyday. That would be a 250% return in a year. Start with $1000. Make $10 a day. 250 * $10 = $2,500. Would you be happy with that?

Let's compound at 2% a day and see what we have at the end of each month for the next 12 months:

Month
1 1,516
2 2,252
3 3,347
4 4,973
5 7,390
6 10,980
7 16,316
8 24,245
9 36,027
10 53,535
11 79,550
12 118,207

Do I have your attention?

Are you interested?

Are you ready to make a decision?

Are you read to act?

Then sign on the line that is dotted.... LOL!!

YouTube - Alec Baldwin - Best performance

This is why I instruct traders to open an account with a maximum of $500. Once you increase your account to $600, you can add another $100. You have to earn the right to add more money by increasing what you have. If you were a boss, to whom would you give more money - the trader that lost money or the trader that made money? SIMPLE! ( dang those caps )


Last edited by TheRumpledOne; September 13th, 2009 at 11:14 AM.
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  #668 (permalink)
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cunparis View Post
Ok, but what about my first question about getting stopped out at the beginning of the trade?

THIS IS TRADING.

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

YOU WIN SOME, YOU LOSE SOME.

NO ONE BATS A THOUSAND... NO ONE!

LOSSES HAPPEN!


Forget about your last trade.

Focus on the next trade.

The market does not care about your last trade - neither should you.

Do you want to enter more than once on the same candle?

That is YOUR DECISION.

Sometimes I do. Sometimes I don't. Sometimes I am glad I did. Sometimes I wish I hadn't.

THIS IS TRADING.

ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN!


How many people want to disable my caps keys permanently? LOL!!

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  #669 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post
How many people want to disable my caps keys permanently? LOL!!

Put me down for one...

Mike

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  #670 (permalink)
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LET GO OF THE MYTHS.

Trading is simple.

But you can make it complicated.

I can see from the questions that some of you are struggling to unlearn.

I understand. I really do.

THERE IS NO SPOON

YouTube - Matrix - the spoon

You are struggling to find a "system" or "method" that will make money. You believe you can improve upon any system that is presented to you by adding one or more squiggly lines. You have been fooled into believing this. THE MATRIX HAS YOU!

Now is the time for you to decide if you want the truth.

YouTube - The Red pill

You can take the BLUE PILL and continue struggling with charts filled with squiggly lines and indicators

OR

You can take the RED PILL and finally SEE what is really going on.

THE CHOICE IS YOURS.

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