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All you need
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:534

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All you need

  #651 (permalink)
Trade with the flow
Paris, France
 
Futures Experience: Advanced
Platform: Market Delta & Ninjatrader
Favorite Futures: ES
 
cunparis's Avatar
 
Posts: 2,563 since Jun 2009
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TRO,

I like your rat studies, very eye opening. The challenge is in finding out how to trade this.

First issue is managing the stop loss. This is always my biggest problem in trading. Price could break the low (red rat) and then pullback 15 ticks. You have previously said that you'd exit at -10 ticks. So now what does the rat do? Does he sit out for this candle? Does he try it again at the previous low?

I found it really interesting that there was a big difference between exiting at the H/L and the close. Exiting on the close doesn't look very profitable. The problem is it's not easy to exit on the H or L. So one needs a way to exit. A profit target is the easiest way and could be determined by statistics. But then you'd miss the black swan. So I guess one would have to accept a profit somewhere in between exiting on the low and exiting on the close. How can we do this?

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  #652 (permalink)
Elite Member
Bellingham, WA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Ninja
Broker/Data: Zen-Fire
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Dragon's Avatar
 
Posts: 494 since Aug 2009
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I think one just has to trade on a bigger timeframe, that is the only way to catch those runners on the faster instruments like CL and ES.

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  #653 (permalink)
Elite Member
Sydney
 
Futures Experience: Beginner
Platform: NinjaTrader
 
Posts: 45 since Jun 2009
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TheRumpledOne View Post
I

This is all you need to remember:

If previous bar is red, then look to go short at the previous bar low.

If previous bar is green, then look to go long at the previous bar high.

I'm laughing...and crying.

Laughing...becuase this is sooo simple and probably works better than what I'm currently doing. Crying...because of all the time, money and frustration I have spent on books and indicators.

I have been letting the rat beat me.

No more.

Thank goodness I read this thread.

Thank you TRO...much for me to contemplate.

Cheers
Simon

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The following user says Thank You to gannman for this post:
 
  #654 (permalink)
Elite Member
Concord, NH USA
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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TheRumpledOne View Post
I know I answered that question earlier in the thread.

You're right you answered it in post 414, but the question still remains, what tells you that you should get out and take your profit? Even if it's a black swan event, at some point the trade will end and it's time to take profits? Since you only trade the long side is it a red candle that has it's low broken or something else? I mean if you did have a 10 pip stop and a 10 pip PT then you certainly would be limiting yourself if you in fact did get a serious runner. This is the only part that is a bit vague to me. I understand everything else, cuz it's simple, but if you could explain your method for exit I would appreciate that.

Thanks, Jeff

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  #655 (permalink)
Metagame Trader
Nijmegen, NL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, JForex
Broker/Data: TP Futures, Sierra Chart data feed
Favorite Futures: 6E,6B,ES
 
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Posts: 29 since Sep 2009
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Dragon View Post
I think one just has to trade on a bigger timeframe, that is the only way to catch those runners on the faster instruments like CL and ES.

That's one way to play it..

Draw a line on a high/low on a higher timeframe (e.g. H4) and trade away from the line in the right direction everytime it passes on the lower timeframe (e.g. H1) from the time a new H4 has started. The higher the range, the better it is (GBPUSD, EURJPY).

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  #656 (permalink)
Metagame Trader
Nijmegen, NL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, JForex
Broker/Data: TP Futures, Sierra Chart data feed
Favorite Futures: 6E,6B,ES
 
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Posts: 29 since Sep 2009
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  #657 (permalink)
Metagame Trader
Nijmegen, NL
 
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Platform: Sierra Chart, JForex
Broker/Data: TP Futures, Sierra Chart data feed
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Same example on M15/M5:

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From 16:00 to 20:00 go SHORT ONLY at the YELLOW line.

No thinking, no squiggly's. Just a banana for the chimp: you

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  #658 (permalink)
Membership Temporarily Revoked
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I smell a Rat...

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  #659 (permalink)
Metagame Trader
Nijmegen, NL
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
Platform: Sierra Chart, JForex
Broker/Data: TP Futures, Sierra Chart data feed
Favorite Futures: 6E,6B,ES
 
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HJay View Post
I smell a Rat...


I smell a Banana..


Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come - Victor Hugo.
More powerful than the will to win, is the courage to begin - anonymous.
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  #660 (permalink)
Elite Member
Washington DC
 
Futures Experience: Intermediate
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TheRumpledOne View Post

Some people do not like the way I answer their questions...

Then that's their problem with the market. To me it doesn't matter how you answer, as much as understanding your answer. Now it's applying it.

Pete

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