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All you need
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Created: by Jeff Castille Attachments:534

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All you need

  #521 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post
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Having a frequency distribution of the net change allows me to "know" when it is time to look for a reversal.

For some reason the frequency distribution isn't sinking into my thick skull. Could you elaborate. Thanks.

Good trading.

Blz

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  #522 (permalink)
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All you Need for today

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Have a great weekend !!

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  #523 (permalink)
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Blz17 View Post
For some reason the frequency distribution isn't sinking into my thick skull. Could you elaborate. Thanks.

Good trading.

Blz

In statistics, a frequency distribution is a tabulation of the values that one or more variables take in a sample.

Frequency distribution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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  #524 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post
In statistics, a frequency distribution is a tabulation of the values that one or more variables take in a sample.

Frequency distribution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

My apologies, I should have been more clear. I understand what a frequency distribution is. What I don't understand is this particular frequency distribution on your chart is. What is the timeframe that it is drawing data from (e.g. current bar, whole day, last hour, etc.)? Also, what are those ranges in reference to (e.g. what is Range 100-149)? I'm also curious how you apply the frequency distribution to the "know" when to look for a reversal.

Thanks again.

Blz

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  #525 (permalink)
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Blz17 View Post
My apologies, I should have been more clear. I understand what a frequency distribution is. What I don't understand is this particular frequency distribution on your chart is. What is the timeframe that it is drawing data from (e.g. current bar, whole day, last hour, etc.)? Also, what are those ranges in reference to (e.g. what is Range 100-149)? I'm also curious how you apply the frequency distribution to the "know" when to look for a reversal.

Thanks again.

Blz

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As Anthony Robbins would say, "Ask a better question..." LOL!

Net change for the purpose of this frequency distribution is the maximum of HIGH - OPEN and OPEN - LOW.

I am using the D1 or daily chart period.

You can see that over the last 250 days, there were only a few times that the net change was greater than 299. This occurred 24 times. So... when the net change of the EURJPY exceeds 200, I begin to take notice and start looking for signs of reversal. At 250 pips or more, there is a really good chance (statistically) price is going to reverse.

In the chart, the net change from open to low was 217 pips. At the time I posted the chart, the net change was 163 pips. That is a difference of 54 pips.

I enter long within 20 pips of the bottom. Worse case, I would have made 34 pips. Best case is 54. I'll take those pips anytime and I do!!

I coded an indicator to alert me when net change hits a threshold. Why stare at charts all day/night when the computer can do the work?

I know price will usually hit the threshold on the pairs that I trade. All I do is WAIT. I only need a couple of trades per day to hit my daily goal.

Simple, yet effective.

The rat doesn't beat me.


Last edited by TheRumpledOne; September 11th, 2009 at 08:57 PM.
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  #526 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post

As Anthony Robbins would say, "Ask a better question..." LOL!

Net change for the purpose of this frequency distribution is the maximum of HIGH - OPEN and OPEN - LOW.

I am using the D1 or daily chart period.

You can see that over the last 250 days, there were only a few times that the net change was greater than 299. This occurred 24 times. So... when the net change of the EURJPY exceeds 200, I begin to take notice and start looking for signs of reversal. At 250 pips or more, there is a really good chance (statistically) price is going to reverse.

In the chart, the net change from open to low was 217 pips. At the time I posted the chart, the net change was 163 pips. That is a difference of 54 pips.

I enter long within 20 pips of the bottom. Worse case, I would have made 34 pips. Best case is 54. I'll take those pips anytime and I do!!

I coded an indicator to alert me when net change hits a threshold. Why stare at charts all day/night when the computer can do the work?

I know price will usually hit the threshold on the pairs that I trade. All I do is WAIT. I only need a couple of trades per day to hit my daily goal.

Simple, yet effective.

The rat doesn't beat me.

LOL, come on! I knew what I was trying to ask.

Okay, that was very helpful. One additional question. The statistics you use to complete the frequency distribution, is there a specific resource for that information or do you obtain that by doing your own data mining?

Thanks once again.

Blz

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  #527 (permalink)
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TheRumpledOne View Post
You do not need to build a better mouse trap.

You only need to "turn left".

If I turn left will this make me right?

Skid

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  #528 (permalink)
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TRO, how do you judge when a BLACK SWAN event has gone in your favor? In other words, what qualifies as a BLACK SWAN event?

The reason I ask this is that the potential trades marked with arrows are just some potential signs of reversal (specially the first one, back and forth quite a few times). I guess once you see this kind of candle patterns, just take the risk since R/R is good?


Thanks!

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TheRumpledOne View Post
Remember, you are either a RED RAT or a GREEN RAT. You are not allowed to switch teams until a BLACK SWAN event has gone in your favor.



Last edited by wuolong; September 11th, 2009 at 11:10 PM.
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  #529 (permalink)
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Thanks TRO...your high/low of the day reversal trade in particular appeals to me. Genius in its simplicity. Thank you for your generous contributions to this thread...I think I've learned more practical knowledge about trading reading this thread than the $1000's I've spent at Amazon on trading books!

Cheers
Simon

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wuolong View Post
TRO, how do you judge when a BLACK SWAN event has gone in your favor? In other words, what qualifies as a BLACK SWAN event?

I am curious to hear TRO's examples of a black swan, but here is the definition from Investopedia:


Investopedia
Black swan events are typically random and unexpected. For example, the previously successful hedge fund Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) was driven into the ground as a result of the ripple effect caused by the Russian government's debt default. The Russian government's default represents a black swan event because none of LTCM's computer models could have predicted this event and its subsequent effects.

Mike

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