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I couldn't agree with TRO more. You're gonna have losers. Don't try and decide which ones will work. Just pick your edge, manage your risk and trade your plan.
Good trading.
Blz.
Can you help answer these questions from other members on NexusFi?
Identifying good breakouts is not part of his method. you take them all if it meets your setup criteria. You're counting on a runner so the one you don't take could end up being the runner.
I didn't have any objections to no indicators, but I am having a hard time accepting trading without volume. Blz has added OBV for this purpose. I'd like to add Better Volume and look for HVC on the pullback showing professionals entered (normally in my sine trading I will not enter on/after a pullback if there is no HVC because the lack of HVC shows me a lack of participation by new buyers). I'd also like to make sure the breakout isn't low volume. Without volume you have no idea. But some of them are profitable without any indicators and volume so I think I must first try it their way and then see what I need. Best to add what we need when we need it rather than add everything and remove what we don't.
As Blz said if there is a 30+ tick move it's a strong move. But anything is possible. You put your entry stop 3 ticks above previous pivot high/low, that right there rules out a lot of false breakouts. I know a trader who will take the 2nd bar after a breakout. I prefer to preprogram so that I don't have to babysit it. I program it and sit back.
Buying pullbacks is basically what my sine trading is. I'm becoming more convinced that it's buying weakness and better to buy strength but that could just be the current market conditions influencing me (few really good breakouts).
It rates market sensitivity by the number of exclamation points (3 !!! being potentially market moving data) plus it's international. Also provides a brief description of what each of the data actually mean. Hope it helps.
This is cool for those of use trading currencies and/or european markets. The only thing I'd like is to have the times listed in NY / GMT / Europe (or let the user choose).
Next step is to decide what is serious enough to avoid trading. One this site they put ! !! or !!!. Most are !!. On the econoday they don't even mark beige & red book as market moving. Any ideas how to know when to stay aside? Or just stay aside for all of them? I've never avoided the news but now I'm convinced it's a good idea. Just don't want to miss a trade if I don't really need to.
That always depends what the "market" is looking at. Like a few years ago nobody really cared about New Home Sales. Today it's pretty important. A good way to find out is to look at Level II just before the news. If bid and ask are empty, then you know it's important.
Ok, my first day of 100% naked trading. No indicators. This was the first day in 4-5 months that I traded without trading ES using my sine indicator. I didn't trade ES today.
I traded 6E, CL, YM (in that order of priority).
I'm attaching my charts here. I know you guys prefer ticks but NT won't show my P/L in ticks. And I think it's $ that counts at the end of the day since all ticks are not equal $.
YM: -$62. I missed two great trades which would have put me at +$140. I marked them on the chart. I missed the first cause I wasn't paying attention, the 2nd I choose not to take it cause I missed the double bottom.
6E: +$116 60% PF 1.74
CL: +$454 66% PF 4.54 Avg Win/Loss 2.27 I rocked CL. It was a trend day up so pretty easy to do.
Total: $508 64% PF 2.43 Avg win/loss 1.35
So how does it feel? Great! No indicators! Nothing to bother me. No second guessing. This is definitely it for me. I'm finally free. I can't believe I wasted 2 years fighting with indicators. It's futile.
Seriously, take all your indicators off your chart and try it for a while and see what you think. I'm not going back.
PS: I'm seriously considering not trading indexes any more. I think commodities trend more and have bigger range so much more interesting to trade.
