Ok here is another chart this time trading reversals after a failed breakout. I think that is a very important part. FXAchillies racks up big points taking these.
This is what I'm trying tomorrow.
PS: I think this is what TRO was talking about in Garry's price action thread. Just draw the lines at swing pivots and trade them. If you loose who cares take the next trade. Today I missed one long trade around 2:16 and it would have been a nice trade. This is something I've learned lately. If you have too many indicators and criteria you get into a guessing game. "is the ema color blue?" "is it pointing up?" "was that HVC pattern good?" "is there bullish momentum?" etc. It can cause you to miss trades and/or second guess them. And if you're counting on a runner to be profitable (lots of small losses and a few big winners) then if you miss 1 runner it can max the difference between a loosing day and a winning day.
Looking forward to your comments. I think the most important thing is to qualify a swing (x minimum ticks) so that it automatically keeps us out of chop. This is how I always loose money is in chop. When the market moves well even if it's up and down I seem to do ok.
Also in studying the range on the ES, I think that's why my sine wave trading went to crap over the last 6 weeks. Several months ago the range was much greater and I caught all kinds of runners. Sometimes getting 6-8 pts (24-32 ticks). Now I'm lucky if I get 8 ticks on ES. I think it's good to have one really simple approach that you can apply to any market.
So this must be what they mean..... trading naked. No indicators!! I will be following your progress. (but at a safe distance)
Good luck !!! Do you feel you've traded this approach long enough in simulation to warrant a shot with real $ ?
Sometimes baby steps are good at first. Just one contract with a goal of hitting your first target. That way you won't get hurt too badly while your learning a new market. But.... if you're going to learn how to swim you've got to get into the water !!! That's the good thing about the YM.... it's an excellent market to learn on as the $5/ tick keeps the "tuition" to a minimun.
I don't want to mislead anyone, I've been trading on simulator for over 3 weeks now. I was profitable up until mid july and then things went downhill for me. I think part of it is that I quit doing my homework after the markets close (review trades, tradelog, etc.). the other part is the markets just aren't as volatile and my sine method requires volatility.
For the naked trading, I've done it 5 days now with euro futures so that's definitely not enough. I was -$170 on euro tonight, it was a tough day. I didn't take reversals and in a day like today that's where the money was. I figure another week or two of simulator. I'm in no hurry. Better to build up confidence.
I have a mechanical stock system that I'm doing with real money for 1 year now, and I'm also ready to pounce on gold for a swing trade. If the dollar breaks out that'll be another swing trade. I'm not touching oil, too crazy (up 5% today).
Nassim Taleb, examines what randomness means in business and in life and why human beings are so prone to mistake dumb luck for consummate skill.
He gives an example of 600 money managers who start today. We will decide with a flip of a coin if they have a winning year. If they win they live to play another year. If they lose they are out of the business. So the progression goes 600 > 300 > 150 > 75 > 37 > 18 > 9 > 4 . So at the end of 7 years wall street parades out the top money managers and everyone flocks to their funds. I mean they obviously know what they are doing they've been right 7 years in a row.... next year 2 > 1 > and done. All with just the flip of a coin.
Last edited by websouth; September 8th, 2009 at 06:30 PM.
Reason: TRO beat me to it...
Glad to hear you've been enjoying the "feb" thread. I am still reading it myself and am picking up a wealth of information. Two things regarding the "good" versus "failed" breakouts. One, you want to quantify the swing with at least 30-40 ticks before the retracement occurs. That tends to narrow the trade down to the more powerful trending moves. Second, keep in mind that you will lose with this approach. Even feb himself claims he has more losers then winnners but that he tends to let his winners run and that they more then make up for the losers.
Yeah... it seems to me that price often retests just a little above or below the support/resistance and in this system it might trigger a losing trade. I think there's a time to buy/sell the breakouts and a time to buy/sell the pullbacks.