Welcome to NexusFi: the best trading community on the planet, with over 150,000 members Sign Up Now for Free
Genuine reviews from real traders, not fake reviews from stealth vendors
Quality education from leading professional traders
We are a friendly, helpful, and positive community
We do not tolerate rude behavior, trolling, or vendors advertising in posts
We are here to help, just let us know what you need
You'll need to register in order to view the content of the threads and start contributing to our community. It's free for basic access, or support us by becoming an Elite Member -- see if you qualify for a discount below.
-- Big Mike, Site Administrator
(If you already have an account, login at the top of the page)
Just wanted to share a source for news updates that I found. They highlight the ones that they consider "market moving" with a star. Seems to be a bit better than Forex Factory's news page but I'm not sure if this one has international or not (nice for currencies):
I love that site, in fact it's my home page. Nice quick reference to the news. Plus after the news is released you can click on the corresponding link to read the details if you're interested. Most importantly it gives me times to stay away from the market.
Well.......+25 points...... frustrating. First trade, hits first target comes back to entry...I decide to close trade.... market goes to second target. Hmmmm. should have been more patient. Second trade, breakeven. Third trade, + 7/11... breaks the swing low, we take some heat, then both targets filled. All three trades frustrating so I don't take the next set. Plus the market is moving slow. Missed trade works !! Wouldn't you know it. Oh well, still on the plus side.
I wanted to take your first trade on ES but I wanted to wait until the first 15 minutes were up. I'm not sure that's a good rule cause sometimes price just takes off and you miss out.
The 2nd I didn't take, you took it on a TL break right? I'm a bit nervous to do that but I think it does get you a bit better price and lower risk.
The 3rd I took but i'm not scaling out and ended up with a small loss on that one.
I was profitable on my sine wave trading, just a few ticks though.
BTW your first trade, the EMA was grey/white. Are you relaxing that criteria a bit? I'm seriously considering removing the MA's on my chart and eco bars. It seems when I want to enter the eco is always the right color, HMA is always right color. Sometimes EMA is flat but I'm not sure that's as important. Do you find eco and/or HMA keep you out of bad trades??
The YM is really oriented in 10"s. So in the above chart you'll note buying on 1's and 6's, selling on 9's and 4's. (Of course these are general observations and need to be taken into consideration with swing high/lows and known major support and resistance)
So.... at the open you'll note that the market had tested 9491 twice.... it was a swing low.... and 3 ticks below was a key number that is a good sell number so I went for it. I was a little apprehensive because the 50 EMA had not turned yet which is what caused me to pull the plug too early on the second target. In retrospect I obviously should have stayed with the trade, trusted my analysis and made more money. Live and learn. (At least I made money on that learning experience which isn't always the case)
The second trade, more of the same.....the market had retraced to just above the 50 EMA then started back down.... you'll note that 69 is another key number.... so I set the sell stop and it took me in. This was one of those cases where moving my stop did not pay off, resulting in a breakeven trade. These two trades make me wonder if two 7 point scalps with both positions would have been a better approach. (all in, all out?)
Third trade.... break of the twice tested swing low..... took some heat as it again retraced to the 50 EMA but..... went for both targets.
So.... the key number approach does play a part in my decision making process. It's nice when everything turns the same color when you'd like it to but.... the numbers rule. Besides.... more often than not... when the numbers are "right" the colors will catch up soon enough.
After awhile, if you decide to trade the YM, you will have all these numbers memorized and will automatically take them into consideration when entering trades. ( or not entering)
I decided to trade YM last week but after studying Friday's charts for YM & ES they seemed pretty similar so I thought I'd stick with ES since I have been trading it for a while now.
But in Feb's forex thread they look for a swing of 30-40 ticks. In ES 30 ticks is just 7.5 points. The 21 day avg range of ES over the last month has been around 15. But that 15 pts doesn't come in 2 swings, it's lots of little swings.
So I was thinking that maybe the feb method could work for YM since the ticks are smaller and the swings have more ticks. I'm still toying around with the idea.
Even though it probably would have lost money, I would have done better than I did trading ES with All you need.
We just have to decide a few things:
1 - how many ticks do we need for a swing? (30)
2 - what kind of chart? 5min? tick chart? 10 range?
3 - how many bars for pullback? 2?
4 - what profit target & stop? (I like a 1:1)
5 - do we trail stop tick by tick or put it under the recent swing low (even a minor one)
first chart - 699 tick chart
second - 10 range. notice first trade doesn't trigger cause there's not enough of a pullback
I will try it tomorrow on tick chart. Just to be cool I'll use 610 cause it's a fib number.
which isn't always the case)