You don't have to post an actual trade if you don't want to........I realize that any given trader may or may not be able to follow their own rules and execute their trades accordingly. However, I find that I can often learn from another traders set up. Putting another arrow in my quiver.
I am constantly trying to simplify my trading tools and ruleset. Essentially, I want to be long only above the 34EMA and short below it, so I will not usually take a counter-trend trade. I draw a horizontal "focus line" through the middle of the present price area - these are entirely discretionary and I will usually enter as price crosses through this point. The attached chart shows the focus line I drew this morning before the market opened, but I was having breakfast with my daughter when the trade triggered (it's Queens Day here tomorrow, the Dutch National Day, so there's no school, so I'm taking time off too). The second focus line is probably where I would have moved my initial line to after price reversed - live, I only have one focus line which I move as the chart develops - I particularly like aligning it with a previous Higher Low (or Lower High) as I have. Obviously, with the exception of the first white line, I have marked this chart with the benefit of hindsight. Btw, the Donchian channel is there just to make support & resistance easier to read.
Very recently I have been experimenting with having no additional momentum or oscillator indicators other than what I have on price itself. Overall, I still like having RSI, or one of its derivations, or a momentum indicator, primarily to show divergence. I have RSX on the chart shown - smoother than regular RSI.
I also have a very plain M5 chart up since reading Al Brooks' book : I find it helpful for seeing pullback with trend entries, although I will still move my "focus line" to the current price area on the range bar chart. I find it very helpful to constantly update my price lines / draw trend lines (often on the RSI rather than price) / etc as a way of staying focused.
Edit: I also mark my R8 chart with Al Brooks' H1/2 & L1/2 entry levels, which often almost exactly coincide with my R8 focus line entry level - these are usually high-prob entries.
Thinking about targets, I realise that I can achieve my daily goal with just one winning +8 +12 trade : 20 ticks, if I increase position size to 4 contracts : EUR500/day. Whist the occasional really big day may pass me by, I think this might be a more businesslike approach. I have in the past hit this goal on a monthly basis, but not in the last year, during which I have reduced position size accordingly. The challenge of course is to AVERAGE 500/day...
Hope you can make sense of the above !
Last edited by jtrade; April 30th, 2010 at 06:16 AM.
Reason: Additional comment
The following 3 users say Thank You to jtrade for this post:
Jeff - looking at your recent trades, you seem to be hitting your higher profit target with increasing frequency. Have you ever considered holding both contracts for the higher number and the effect of this on your overall profitability ?
Shortly after my post describing my method above, my computer crashed requiring a Windows reinstall (never happened to me before and I have learned that having a backup is NOT enough : the reinstallation of service packs, updates and programs is a VERY lengthy process. I now have a drive image in case it happens again...). Anyway, as I twiddled my thumbs reading through my notes while my computer downloaded endlessly, I reviewed my trading notes and a couple of posts that caught my eye before (for example, cbratton wrote an interesting post on the Al Brooks thread about his "all in" 30 tick target). I have always used a scale out approach with 2 or preferably 3 lots and accepted that the disadvantage of a reduced RR ratio was worth it for the big advanatage of a higher winning %.
But a high win % is often a pychological advantage only, so now I'm questioning my long-term approach to this issue ... (maybe I've had too much time to think the last few days).
I'm going to see if I can adjust to a single lot approach for the rest of this month...
Mathematically I am quite positive it is better to stay all in but do not underestimate what scaling out can do...
It increases your win ratio - this makes it easier psychologically to trade.
It reduces any time you spend underwater.
It means when you are underwater you can get back to profitability quicker.
the downside is that you may miss an absolute screamer - where you only have say 1 of your contracts on. But as long as you have 1 on be happy ( I would!). Reverse the thinking and see that you likely would NOT have that single contract on were it not for the fact that you have already banked profits and can take the bigger picture view this allows (terrible English but I hope you can understand).
My goal is to win every day - I am not there yet but getting closer.
One added comment - make sure that your first and second exits are mathematically correct ie you know that x% of the time y% of your trades hit that spot. (Winners and losers)
The following user says Thank You to Mindset for this post:
i'm new to this site and it seems very interesting so far...i ran across your thread searching for information about protaderonline.com (pages 184 and 185 of your thread). i have a few questions about this site that i hope you or someone on here may be able to answer for me.
I've noticed on protraderonline's 2008 results pages sept through dec (protraderonline(dot)com/page/393824211) (won't let me post links yet) that in the bottom left corner of his screen captures it say copyright 2009 NinjaTrader,LLC.
Is that correct for 2008 data?
Also, do you or anyone else have any feedback on this oppurtunity?
thanks in advance for reviewing this and any input that may be offered
When ever I seem to get "hot"......that is to say very high percentage win rate.....I think about increasing my targets. But alas.....it reminds me of the old saying about who you go home from the dance with......." you go home with who brung ya." LOL
To me taking profits and reducing risk (moving stop up) are critical. Sure I'd like to get the screaming runner but four good scalps a day is all I need.
The following 5 users say Thank You to Jeff Castille for this post:
I really like that WMA Colors ... and I am wondering if you ever made it so that the slopeup and slopedown values would be available to plot ( or actually would be greatly helpful to use in a strategy)??
I dont see values in the DataBox, even though the code seems to treat the outputs as available. Nothing calculates in a strategy when I access those inputs.
Immediately after I posted I saw a small typo (VERY suprised it still compiles) that I fixed, and it now shows the downslope values, but strangely the same change on the
upslope code still doesnt expose the values in DataBox. Anyone???
Last edited by sam028; May 20th, 2010 at 04:45 PM.
Reason: add code tag